We obviously won’t know the final results of this election until after November 2.  However, in evaluating this race and all the recent polls, it would be well to keep the following in mind.

1.  Most voters have already made up their mind.  Those who have not yet decided to vote for an incumbent almost always vote for the challenger.  This is a well documented fact.  For this reason any incumbent failing to poll above 50% this late in the race is in jeopardy.  Think Barbara Boxer and Harry Reid
2. All of the polls are based on “expected voters.”  All that a pollster needs to do to make it look like Democrats are catching up is assume that Democratic participation will be the same as in previous elections.  However, that has not been true for a long time, at least as far back as the Scott Brown election in Massachusetts.
3. In recent elections all of the polls have grossly underestimated the Republican vote and also grossly underestimated the tea part influence.   That is why no one was predicting Joe Miller beating Lisa Murkowski in Alaska.  No one was predicting Christine O’Donnell beating Mike Castle in Delaware.  The list goes on and on.  Not only did these candidates win, they won by large margins.  For example:  the polls showed Joe Miller down by double digits less than a week before the election.  Some of this can be explained by brilliant last minute media buys by the Tea Party Express, but at least some of it is the result of the polls being really wrong.
4. Nothing has happened to change this election.  There has been no October surprise and Obama’s campaigning has done more harm than good.  The more campaigning by Obama, the more this becomes a nationalized election and the more Democrats lose. 
5. Democrats have only made gains in a couple of states where the Republican candidate has screwed up.  Classic examples are New York Governor and Delaware Senate.  Democrats may pick off one or two candidates, but they cannot stop a rising tide.
6. The numbers to really watch are Gallup.  They are predicting a 17 point Republican advantage based on normal turnout.  They consider an average turnout to be about 40%.  But, they are still predicting a 12 point Republican advantage if there is a high turnout of about 55%.  But, in my personal opinion, that this year is different and if there is a high turnout it is likely to be even more Republican.  If that is true, then anything could happen.
7. None of the polls are really taking the Gallup results into consideration.  Even Rasmussen does not do that.  The reason is that the pollsters are terrified of being wrong.  If they are wrong they don’t want someone accusing them of having made a material difference in technique. 

The bottom line is that this election will probably be unlike any other.  Just think of all that has happened this year.  Scott Brown, a Republican, won Ted Kennedy’s old Senate Seat.  Several incumbent senators have been picked off in primaries by underfinanced unknowns.  Others, like Evan Bayh and Christopher Dodd, didn’t even bother to run for re-election because they knew they were going to lose.  There is a high tide and a storm surge coming that will lift all ships.  The only question remaining is the ultimate size of the tsunami.

TDM

I recently read Bob Woodward’s new book: “Obama’s Wars.”   It provides valuable insight into President Obama and his administration.  The good news is that, at least with regard to national security, Obama does want to do what’s best for the country.  There is no evidence of the “I hate America” viewpoint of a William Ayers or a Reverend Wright.  If he holds that opinion, he is hiding it from everyone, including his own staff.  But upon reading this book, which is primarily based on first hand interviews, it is obvious that Obama has an incredible combination of naivety, arrogance and incompetence.  In every instance, he views all subjects in terms of himself.  For example the military, lead by Admiral Mullens, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and General Petraeus was lobbying for more troops in Afghanistan.  Woodward shows that the military was primarily motivated by fear of failure if they didn’t get the troops they needed.  But, Obama viewed this primarily as a personal attack on him and was angry.  Regardless of whom you think is right on the subject; the problem is that Obama could not view their actions objectively.

 With regard to Afghanistan, it is clear that Obama inherited a really tough situation.  I am not sure there is a good solution.  The military wanted to send in all those additional troops, but they weren’t exactly promising success.  Instead McChrystal was talking about taking 8 or 10 years to get things under control to the extent that the Afghan government could take over their own security.  No one was even hinting that a surge in Afghanistan would have results similar to those in Iraq. 

 On the other hand Obama was primarily focused on the political fallout rather than the potential risk to national security.  The entire basis for his strategy was based on two requirements.  First, we would not consider just leaving.  Second, we would not consider no leaving.  The only question was with regard to the timing.  He seemed to be primarily concerned that when things went wrong that he would not get the blame.  In other words his primary motivation for approving the additional troop levels was to avoid being criticized from not doing that. 

 Many people have criticized Bush for ignoring Afghanistan, but Woodward’s book hints that the opposite was true.  Bush had a bi-weekly video conference with the onsite commanders.  He clearly knew what was going on.  But Bush was not interested in escalating the war and he ignored the military requests for more and more troops.  I suspect that Bush felt the status quo was probably the best result we could expect in Afghanistan.  He was quite content to keep the Taliban under control and to make sure al Qaeda did not return.   That may not be very inspiring, but it just may be reality.

 If there is one person in the Obama administration that had the same view as Bush, it was VP Biden.  It surprised me that Biden seemed to be the only one who knew what he wanted to accomplish.  Biden strongly opposed sending in more troops, with no expectation of actually winning anything.  He felt that was the worst possible decision.  He suggested that the U.S. should back off from a counter insurgency approach and  revert to a counter terrorism approach.  That would involve leaving enough troops to keep the Taliban under control and to discourage al Qaeda from coming back, but to stop trying to do nation building when no one was even pretending that this was possible.  In other words, Biden wanted to continue doing exactly the same thing Bush was doing.

 Hillary Clinton supported sending in more troops, but she really didn’t think it would work, she just thought we should at least pretend we were really committed.  She had strong support from Senators Graham and McCain.  But frankly, I was unimpressed with any of them, because no one seemed to think this would really work.  I have a hard time understanding why we would escalate a war if we had no intention or even hope of actually winning.

 Ultimately Obama made the worst possible decision.  He sent in more troops, but not as many as the military said was the minimum necessary.  Then he required rules of engagement that concentrated on reducing civilian casualties by increasing the risk to our own troops.  Finally he guaranteed failure by publically declaring that we were leaving in 2011 regardless of circumstances. 

 The interview of Obama, printed in the New York Times recently, combined with Woodward’s book, offers a lot of insight into Obama.  If you want to read the actual article, following is the link:

 http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/17/magazine/17obama-t.html?_r=3&ref=magazine&pagewanted=all

 Obama really believes that he is brilliant. Several people commented that Obama always thinks he is the smartest person in the room.  He has convinced himself that he is uniquely gifted and entitled to power.  A few weeks ago I wrote that the number one characteristic of an incompetent person is that they do not know they are incompetent.  Obama has absolutely no accomplishments that justify his arrogant opinion of himself.  His academic record is mediocre.  From all accounts he couldn’t even write his own memoirs and had to dump the assignment on William Ayers.  He has no significant political accomplishments and has never demonstrated real leadership on any issue.  It is basically the equivalent of someone who never played organized football, at any level, deciding he is a better quarterback than Bret Favre.  If you read the characteristics of an extreme narcissist, this appears to be a common trait.   When one considers how Obama was abandoned by father, his step father and his mother, it is easy to understand why he might develop these traits.

 Regardless of why, Obama is in a state of denial regarding his own ability.  The following quote from the above article is very revealing:

  Given how much stuff was coming at us,” Obama told me, “we probably spent much more time trying to get the policy right than trying to get the politics right. There is probably a perverse pride in my administration — and I take responsibility for this; this was blowing from the top — that we were going to do the right thing, even if short-term it was unpopular. And I think anybody who’s occupied this office has to remember that success is determined by an intersection in policy and politics and that you can’t be neglecting of marketing and P.R. and public opinion.”

 No President has been more involved in marketing and PR than Obama and no President has been give more favorable treatment by the main stream media, but Obama fails to understand that.  Instead, he thinks that every decision he made has been right, except that he has not done a good enough job of explaining to people why he is right. 

 The reporter reminded Obama about his speech after receiving the Democratic nomination, when he said the following:

 “we will be able to look back and tell our children that this was the moment when we began to provide care for the sick and good jobs to the jobless; this was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal; this was the moment when we ended a war and secured our nation and restored our image as the last, best hope on earth.”

When the reporter pointed out that so far Obama hasn’t exactly done any of this, Obama responded with the following:

 I make no apologies for having set high expectations for myself and for the country, because I think we can meet those expectations,” he said. “Now, the one thing that I will say — which I anticipated and can be tough — is the fact that in a big, messy democracy like this, everything takes time. And we’re not a culture that’s built on patience.”

 In other words, Obama still thinks he made all the right policy decisions and he actually believes that he alone is capable of saving the planet.  It is one thing for a political candidate to say that, but for a President to naively think he is actually capable of that, when so far his policies have been a total disaster,  is beyond arrogance, it is delusional.

 A comment by Ken Duberstein, a former Chief of Staff for Ronald Reagan who incredibly admits to voting for Obama in 2008, is very revealing:

 “When he talked about being a transformational president, it was about restoring the faith of the American people in our governing institutions,”

 An even more revealing remark was made by Peter Ozburg, White House Budget Director who recently left the administration.  He was apparently shocked to find out that the business community had a totally different view of things than the Obama administration.    When describing the obvious disconnect between the business community and the Obama administration he said the following:

 “I’d thought it was an 8, but it’s more like a 10,” he told me. “And rather than wasting time debating whether it’s legitimate,” he added, referring to his former colleagues, “the key is to recognize that it’s affecting what they do.”

 Ultimately, we are dealing with a President and an administration that is incapable of recognizing reality.  It is hard to imagine anyone making good decisions in that environment.  When you combine this with the unprecedented level of personal arrogance, it provides a pretty good explanation for what has happened and what is likely to happen in the future.  Obama is traveling all over the country trying to save Democrats from disaster.  Yet in most cases he is making things worse.  Today he said that the reason people are voting for Republicans is that they are too scared to think straight.  Perhaps I am wrong on this, but I never felt that insulting voters was a good strategy for winning an election.  I expect Republicans to score a historic victory in just over two weeks.  I also expect that Obama to continue believing that he is right and that everyone else is wrong.  He will blame Bush, he will blame Republicans, he will blame the media, he will blame Democrats and he will blame the American voters, and ultimately he will even blame our democratic system of government.  But he won’t even consider the possibility that he might be wrong.  After all, he is always the smartest person in the room.

 TDM

I got a chance to watch the televised debate between Christine O’Donnell and Chris Coons.  Based on the media records one would think that Ms. O’Donnell tanked.  But after watching the actual debate, I am no so sure that is the case.  The truth is that she did not need to win the debate; she just needed to show that she is capable of handling herself.  That, she did very well.  In fact the pressure was on Coons, who was widely expected to wipe the floor with this dimwitted lightweight.  That is far from what happened.  She more than held her own and actually scored some serious blows.

 Obviously the Lying was Chris Coons.  He tried to pass himself off as a mainstream conservative, which is ridiculous.  The Witch, of course was the infamous Ms. O’Donnell.  The Warthog was the ubiquitous Wolf Blitzer.  For example, Mr. Blitzer asked her if she believed in evolution, with is effete sneer as if anyone who didn’t believe in evolution was intellectually incapable of running for public office.  I wish she had responded with a very sharp retort:  Why are you asking me that question.  Do you feel that believing in evolution is a requirement for political office?  But she still gave a good answer.  She said that her personal views on that subject were irrelevant, what was relevant is that she thought local schools should have the right to decide what is taught in their schools.  If they want to teach intelligent design as well as evolution they should have the right to decide that for themselves.  Then she turned around and said that her catholic views were more in line with the majority of the American people than Coons Marxists views.  She then asked why the media asked her about the “witch” comments when they ignored his essay on why he was a bearded Marxist.  He tried to deflect that by saying it was written as a joke he wrote about while in college.  She then pointed out that regardless of whether or not that was really written as a joke, his political philosophy was consistent with Marxism and gave several good examples.

 She also hammered him on Afghanistan.  She pointed out that he can’t say he supports the troops and then want a specific withdraw date that hurts the mission.  She also scored good points on the teacher payment issue.  She said:  of course he supports the teacher’s union’s position, since they are paying for his campaign.  She was surprised when they asked her which Supreme Court justice she would not have supported and she didn’t have a quick answer.  But she did respond that the real issue with Roe vs Wade was that she felt it took away the right of States to decide on that issue for themselves.

She was poised and appeared competent.  That alone may have a major impact on this race, because the media wanted to expose her as incompetent.  She at least held her own, if not better.  The bias in the questions by the moderators was disgusting.  One question was whether she supported the constitution as it was originally written or as it is being interpreted now.  Clearly this was asked to allow Coons to give his standard pro-choice speech.  All in all it was entertaining and she did much better than I expected.

 The polls show her down by 19 points and a lot of people have written her off as a lost cause.  But, President Obama scheduled a trip to Delaware to campaign for Coons.  First, any candidate who campaigns with Obama tends to lose.  Second, it is hard to imagine Obama making this trip if they thought this race was over.  I suspect it is much closer than the main stream media is admitting.  Third, she has a ton of money and she obviously has some brilliant people running her campaign.  Her latest ad referring to Coons as the tax man is very effective. 

 No predictions on this one, but I wouldn’t be shocked if she came back to make this competitive and possible pull off a dark horse win.  She was way behind Mike Castle until the tea party express stepped in at the last minute with some hard hitting ads.  They have now done this on several occasions with spectacular results.  Joe Miller was down by double digits the week before the Alaska primary.  The tea party express moved in with some heavy media buys and some great ads and Miller won easily.  Delaware is a lot like Alaska in that it is a small state and it is easier to buy a lot of effective local media.  This is a weird election cycle and all the momentum nationwide is at the Republicans backs.  I think O’Donnell proved she is far from the dingbat portrayed in the media and when you combine that with a lot of money and some really good ads, anything could happen.

 One thing is certain, if she does pull it off, Democrats hope for control the Senate are probably close to zero.

 TDM

It is hard to describe the incredible incompetence of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Barack Obama.  Just before congress recessed a bill was passed in both the House and the Senate that would have permitted the streamlining of loan document processing when banks are foreclosing on homes.  This passed by voice vote in both chambers with no opposition.  But, President Obama killed the bill, after a self-righteous proclamation, by refusing to sign it into law.

The obvious incompetence of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in letting this “controversial” bill pass on a voice vote is impossible to ignore.   Obama made this worse by making sure everyone understood why he was not going to sign the bill.  Democrats gained nothing from this as what little political gain received by Obama is more than offset by the damage to Pelosi and Reid.

But the real damage is that this bill just guarantees more delay in the recovery.  No one expects any change in whether or not a home eventually gets foreclosed.  All that will happen is that it will take longer and it will be more expensive.  In the meantime, the immediate impact on the economy could be catastrophic.   Lawyers are already poised to take advantage of this mess.  You can expect class action suits by skilled attorneys challenging every foreclosure that happened in the last two years.  That means those people who bought foreclosed homes may now have to incur legal expense to prove they really own the home.  In the meantime, sales on foreclosed homes have already come to a screeching halt:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/08/AR2010100806954.html

This means recovery in the housing industry will be delayed indefinitely.

I have no sympathy for the banks that got themselves into this mess by irresponsible lending practices.  It is also hard to feel sympathy for those people trying to buy homes at bargain prices, since any gain has probably come at someone else’s expense.   There are no heroes in this story.  But, we are either a nation ruled by laws, or we aren’t.  No economy can prosper in the face of such widespread legal uncertainty. 

No bank will be interested in loaning money for someone to buy a home, if they cannot protect their investment if the borrower stops making payments.  Banks loan money because the loan was protected by the security in the property.  If that security is not there, the only people who will be able to get loans will be people who don’t need to borrow money.

This pocket veto may do more damage to our economy than you can imagine.

 TDM

Mark Halperin’s article in Time is a scathing rebuke of President Obama: 

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2024718,00.html

The following is his assessment of President Obama:

With the exception of core Obama Administration loyalists, most politically engaged elites have reached the same conclusions: the White House is in over its head, isolated, insular, arrogant and clueless about how to get along with or persuade members of Congress, the media, the business community or working-class voters. This view is held by Fox News pundits, executives and anchors at the major old-media outlets, reporters who cover the White House, Democratic and Republican congressional leaders and governors, many Democratic business people and lawyers who raised big money for Obama in 2008, and even some members of the Administration just beyond the inner circle.

What a shock.  The most naïve, inexperienced, unqualified person ever nominated to be President of the United States by a major political party turns out to be the most naïve, inexperienced, unqualified President.  My question for the politically engaged elites is:  ‘WHAT TOOK YOU SO LONG?”   It’s not like there weren’t enough clues.  An objective review of Obama’s educational and professional history shows that he is a man of no accomplishments who has never demonstrated leadership in any field.  The lack of experience alone was enough to disqualify him, even if one ignores his radical associations and his highly questionable financial dealings with convicted felons.  Electing Obama President of the United States was the ultimate affirmative action pick.  Obama was elected because he is black.  Democrats were too overjoyed at having a black candidate that could win to care whether or not he was actually qualified.  Republicans were too afraid of being labeled racist to attack his pathetic record and questionable background.  Jackie Robinson broke racial barriers because he proved that he belonged.  He asked for no special favors and he earned respect.  Obama is setting racial relations back decades because he is proving the opposite. 

When the Republicans took over congress in 1994, Bill Clinton realized he was beat, so he just let them pass good legislation and he took the credit.  But, Obama will not do that.  Mark Halperin assumes that Obama blames everyone and everything else for his failures because he is a poor politician, but I believe he does this because he actually believes it.  Just last week he told college students that they shouldn’t stay home from voting just because “Barack” is not on the ballot.  He believes the only mistake he made was in his failure to explain to people why he is right.  I do not believe that Obama even recognizes reality.

Republicans are going to run the table in November, but that will only be the first step in a long and difficult process.  I don’t expect Obama to change at all.  I think he will hunker down with the few people who actually still believe in him and he will try to continue on the same path as before.  He will make recess appointments and will try to legislate by executive order.  I fear we are on a course to major constitutional crisis.  If any of the rumors about the personal corruption of Obama are true, the Republicans will have plenty of ammunition.  Republicans will hesitate to do this, because of the negative impact from the failed impeachment of Bill Clinton, but ultimately Obama is unlikely to leave them a viable option.

I can see November from my window, but December looks dark and stormy.

TDM

The Democratic Party has become the “Party of Pluerism.”  In other words, they are acting like children.

The Gallup report issued earlier this week says that unemployment is now at 10.1% and that underemployment is at 18.8%.  It also predicted that the administration would understate the true unemployment numbers.  There will be no more economic reports before the election:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx

What, you say, could make this worse?   Easy.  Obama was on the radio today and obviously off TelePrompTer.   The following is from an article in the LA Times:

“Everybody in the barbershops, the beauty shops, and at work — everybody’s got to understand: This is a huge election,” he said. “If we turn out in strong numbers, then we will do fine. If we do not, if we are depressed and decide, well, you know, Barack’s not running right now, so I’m just going to stay home, then I’m going to have my hands full up here on Capitol Hill.”Republicans have demonstrated.

Days before the release of a key jobs report, Obama said most of the job losses his administration gets blamed for occurred before “any of my economic plans were put into place,” and that the country is still “experiencing the hangover from the misguided policies” of the last decade.

Obama said a big voter turnout was vital, both to counter millions of dollars being spent by outside groups and the enthusiasm

“They are fired up. They are mobilized. They see an opportunity to take back the House, maybe take back the Senate,” he said. “If they’re successful in doing that, they’ve already said they’re going to go back to the same policies that were in place during the Bush administration. That means that we are going to have just hand-to-hand combat up here on Capitol Hill.”

With Obama is it always just about him.  He has already decided that if Democrats lose, it is only because he is not on the ballot.  What is really pathetic is that he probably believes that.  We are dealing with someone who is incapable of even recognizing reality.  When Bill Clinton got walloped during the 1994 mid-term election, he just adopted some of the Republican ideas and took credit for them.

But Obama is unlikely to do that.  Instead he will blame the loss on everything and everyone but himself.  He will first blame everything on Bush, just like he did above.  He will blame Republicans for obstructing his agenda.  He will blame a biased media that didn’t give his administration enough credit.  He will blame Democrats for running scared from Republican lies and distortions.  Finally, he will blame the American people because not enough of his supporters showed up to vote.  The only person he will not blame is himself, other than his failure to explain more effectively why he is right.

This means that while Republicans are now very likely to run the table on November 2, 2010, that will not solve the problem.  Obama is likely to veto any attempt to overturn his program and to implement as much of his program as he can through executive order, ignoring both congress and the courts.  In addition, Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi are likely to try and jam through as much as possible during a lame duck session.  (They will fail).

I do not think Obama will succeed, but unfortunately we may be facing the most significant constitutional crisis in our nation’s history.  The following article, from Real Clear Politics, shows that a lot of people are very concerned with regard to this topic. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/10/08/which_obama_will_emerge_after_the_storm_2010_midterm_after_republican_landslide_clinton_107489.html

We already have an important clue.  Jim Jones is resigning as National Security Director.  His replacement will be Tom Donilon.  His resume is as follows:

http://www.whorunsgov.com/Profiles/Thomas_Donilon

In other words Obama is turning over the top position on National Security to a politic hack that helped run Fannie Mae into the ground.  He has zero military experience and Woodward reported that both Jones and Gates loath him.  In other words he is just like Obama, a naïve, inexperienced, incompetent radical.  I feel warm all over.

 TDM

No amount of spin or pleas for patience can cover up the undeniable incompetence of this administration.   Democrats were already in serious trouble before the week began.  Unfortunately for them, when things start going bad they tend to get worse.  Following is a list of things that happened just this week:

IT’S OFFICIAL – OBAMA ADMINISTRATION BOTCHES BP SPILL

The National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling issued a scathing report regarding the Obama administrations’ handling of the BP oil spill: 

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/10/06/101697/white-house-squelched-release.html#ixzz11clGiTNn

The following quote from the report is very strong:

The staff paper said that underestimating the flow rates “undermined public confidence in the federal government’s response” by creating the impression that the government was either incompetent or untrustworthy. The paper said that the loss of trust “fuels public fears.”

Perhaps the best analysis of this situation is on the following link to the yidwithlid:

 http://yidwithlid.blogspot.com/2010/10/bp-spill-investigators-administration.html

MORE JOBS ARE LOST IN SEPTEMBER

Then the September Jobs Report was released and it is terrible:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-sheds-39000-rb-1277482169.html?x=0&.v=1

The administration was preparing to explain why only 20,000 jobs were created when it turns out 39,000 jobs were lost.   This is really bad economic news and it cannot be ignored.

LATIN AMERICAN GOVERNMENTS JOIN SUIT AGAINST ARIZONA

Then the 9^th Circuit Court decided to allow foreign Latin American governments to file briefs supporting the Obama administrations’ opposition to the Arizona immigration law:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43199.html

People are already angry about the opposition to this law, they will be furious that we are allowing foreign governments to interfere in our domestic affairs.

JUDGE THROWS OUT KEY EVIDENCE AGAINST TERRORIST SUSPECT

This is enough bad news for any administration, but it gets worse.  Today a judge threw out the most important  evidence against the terrorist who participated in bombing two U.S. Embassies:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-06/witness-in-ghailani-embassy-bombing-trial-barred-by-u-s-judge-in-new-york.html

The decision was because of alleged “torture.”  This is exactly why it was a really stupid idea to move these trials to federal court in New York.  What makes this worse is that the judge who made the ruling added the following comment:

“His status as an ‘enemy combatant’ probably would permit his detention as something akin to a prisoner of war until hostilities between the United States and al-Qaeda and the Taliban end even if he were found not guilty in this case,” Kaplan wrote.

This is just plain nonsense.  We bring this yahoo to New York, so we can prove he will get a fair trial, and then the judge throws out most of the evidence, but writes that we’re going to keep him locked up anyway, even if he is found not guilty.  Who, exactly, is that supposed to impress?

OBAMA PLANS TRIP TO INDIA

How bad is it?  Easy.  The President has already planned a trip to India starting the day after the election.  Regardless of the reason for this trip, it sure looks like he is deliberately scheduling himself out of town so he doesn’t have to answer any questions about the election results. 

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/6694694.cms’

This has been a really bad week, and it’s only Wednesday.  Wow!

Finally, for those worried about another 4 years of Governor Moonbeam:

JERRY BROWN HANGS OUT WITH CASTRO, WITH THE HELP OF CONVICTED SPY PHILIP AGEE

The following article, from the Daily Beast, shows that this story is about to go viral.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2010-10-05/jerry-browns-castro-trouble-on-2000-cuba-trip/

Hmmm.. People in glass houses?????

TDM

We do not know how many seats Republicans win this November but we will do know for certain who will not be in control of congress after this election.  The recent Gallup Poll shows Republican with a 53 to 40 edge, if there is high turnout and 56 to 38 if there is low turnout:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/122439-vulnerable-house-democrats-run-away-from-partys-legislative-record

Larry Sabato did an outstanding job of showing the statistical significant of this poll:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010091601/

Of course Gallup says Democrats may do better by increasing enthusiasm.  The primary reason they are saying that is because current Republican enthusiasm is so high and Democratic enthusiasm is so low that they assume Democrats have no place to go but up.

But that ignores the reality of momentum.  For example, imagine yourself at a Kings game when the home team is leading by 10 points with two minutes to go.  The crowd is going nuts.   No one considers leaving.  Then imagine yourself at a Kings game when the home team is losing by 30 points with two minutes to go.  The few remaining fans are silently sitting on their hands.  Republicans have the momentum, they think they are going to win and their enthusiasm is like to increase.  Democrats know they are in trouble, they think they are going to lose and their enthusiasm is likely to decrease.

But, the simple reality is that Nancy Pelosi has already lost control of the House.  There are currently 256 Democrats in the House and 179 Republicans.  But, in the last vote, 39 Democrats joined the Republicans in voting against adjournment.  If Mary Fallin from Oklahoma had not missed the vote, Boehner’s motion to vote on extending the Bush Tax cuts would have passed:

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/122439-vulnerable-house-democrats-run-away-from-partys-legislative-record

If the election was held today and every incumbent was re-elected, Nancy Pelosi would still lose control of the House.  No one is predicting that.  The lowest prediction I have seen shows the Republicans picking up 20 to 25 seats.  In any case Pelosi has lost too much support within the Democratic congress to control the legislative agenda.  She was voted out of power when those 39 Democrats joined with Republicans.  The only remaining question is the strength of the mandate that Republicans will get from this election.  We do not know whether or not Republicans will win control of the Senate, but we sure know who has lost control of the House.  The fat lady is warming up in the wings and she already knows the tune!

 TDM

Following, courtesy of Newbusters.org, are two pictures.  The first is of the “One Nation Working Together” rally held yesterday.  There was a massive effort by every liberal left-wing organization in the country, along with funding and organizational help from the unions to respond to the Glenn Beck “Restoring Honor” rally held on August 28, 2010.  If you have any doubts over what is really happening in this country, just look at these two pictures:

Things were so bad that CSPAN got caught running a picture of the “Restoring Honor” rally and pretending it was from the “One Nation Working Together” rally.  The following link from gatewaypundit.firstthings.com

http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/2010/10/figures-cspan-uses-tea-party-rally-shot-for-leftist-one-nation-rally/

Lately liberals have been getting it handed to them on the air. Conservative commentators are feeling the wind at their back and they are just destroying the desperate attempts by the liberal left to put a good spin on this. 

Brit Hume handed it to Juan Williams. 

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/10/03/brit-hume-battles-juan-williams-over-congress-adjourning-tax-cut-vote

Monica Crowley crushed Eleanor Cliff

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2010/10/03/monica-crowley-smacks-down-eleanor-clift-over-gop-being-extreme

Greta VanSustren destroyed Gloria Allred. 

 http://www.lucianne.com/Article/?pageid=van_susteren_destroys_allred

Pretty easy to see which way the wind is blowing.

TDM

In November of 2008, the election was a picnic for Democrats.  It would have been hard for a Democrat to lose an election anywhere.  Now, just 23 months later, the picnic has morphed into panic.   Democrats have panicked and they are making major mistakes.  For example Alan Grayson ran a really disgusting ad in his House race that has backfired big time:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42818.html

While Grayson is a certified scumbag, well known for outrageous personal attacks on political opponents, this ad was really stupid.  This ad shows that he is absolutely desperate.  The same is true of Jerry Brown in California.  No one is surprised by the classic: “you hired an illegal alien” attack on Meg Whitman, but running it now was a huge mistake.  Jerry Brown is an experienced politician and he knows that ad should have been saved until the Friday before the election.  But, he panicked and ran it now.  Once again, the only plausible explanation is panic.  By running it now he just gave Meg Whitman more time to respond and this is likely to hurt him more than help him.

There are currently 259 seats up for election that are currently occupied by Democrats.  There are 176 seats currently held by Republicans.  Obviously, the Republicans need to take 42 seats away from Democrats in order to win the House.  Virtually all political pundits are now predicting that to happen.

It appears that Republicans are leading in something like 70 races.  In fact, the Republicans are leading in almost every race where the pollsters thought would be competitive.  But, there are a lot of other races out there where no one is even running polls.  Democrats are very concerned.  For example Barney Franks is so worried that he asked Bill Clinton to campaign for him.  Frank is the Chairman of House Financial Services Committee, one of the most powerful positions in congress.  He is running in a “safe” Democratic district in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state in the country.  Wow!   John Dingell has won re-election 28 straight times, but his seat is considered to be in jeopardy.  He is pleading for campaign contributions to help him get re-elected in one of the safest congressional districts for Democrats in the country:

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42191.html

These are just some of the well-known prominent Democrats who are in trouble.  There are lesser known Democrats all over the country where no one is even polling.  If people like Frank and Dingell are in trouble, everyone is in trouble.

The solution, for Democrats, is to make this a lot of local elections.  Democrats are trying to do just that.   A lot of them don’t even admit they are Democrats and I haven’t found any Democrats who are running for re-election based on their record.  Instead they are running smear campaign trying to scare voters into voting against their opponent.

But, President Obama is the gift that keeps on giving.  He is oblivious to the political damage he is causing to the Democratic Party, so he is out there telling Democrats to buck up and take more credit for doing a great job.  Each day he tries to find a new person to blame, since his previous tactic of blaming everything on George Bush clearly isn’t working.   He is incredibly thin skinned and he constantly whines about how Republicans are picking on him.  That makes him look weak and defensive.

He is unlikely to help a single Democrat gain any votes, but he is managing to help Republicans make this a national election.  If the Republicans keep a national election, that is very bad for Democrats.

I used to think that if Republicans had a super good wonderful day they would win about 75 seats.  I now think they are likely to win 100 seats and could win more than that.  We may wake up on November 3 with a whole country full of Democratic incumbents standing there with a glazed look in their eyes wondering what happened while a whole bunch of newcomers are celebrating.   If Democrats don’t find a way to stop the panic, this is going to get worse, a lot worse. 

The only good news for Democrats is that congress has adjourned, so neither Pelosi nor Reid is capable of pushing through more dumb legislation before the election.  But, as Yogi Berra used to say, “it is getting late early.”  Obviously the economy is not going to turn around before the election.  In addition, Obama is unlikely to give a great speech that suddenly makes everyone love him again.  In fact, most of the things that could happen in the next four weeks, that could impact the election, would be bad for Democrats.  The economy won’t recover, but the stock market could easily crash.  We won’t win the war in Afghanistan, but things could quickly deteriorate.  If there are no terrorist attacks, it won’t help Democrats, but if there is a terrorist attack it will really hurt Obama.

There are sure to be some October surprises by Democrats who are famous for last minute smear campaigns.  Think of the DUI story that was released on George Bush the Friday before the 2000 election.  That probably cost Bush the lead in the popular vote.  But, while some Republicans candidates will fall victim to these kinds of tactics, it will not impact the nationwide trend. 

There are more and more signs of a huge political storm poised to sweep across this country.  Democrats know that, which is why they have panicked.  But panic, in the face of disaster, only makes things worse.   I now think the Republicans win more seats in the House than anyone can even imagine.  I also think they win the Senate and it won’t even be close.   Republicans are always capable of blowing any individual election, but even the traditional Republican arrogance and incompetence cannot slow down this political storm.