We do not know how many seats Republicans win this November but we will do know for certain who will not be in control of congress after this election. The recent Gallup Poll shows Republican with a 53 to 40 edge, if there is high turnout and 56 to 38 if there is low turnout:
Larry Sabato did an outstanding job of showing the statistical significant of this poll:
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/aia2010091601/
Of course Gallup says Democrats may do better by increasing enthusiasm. The primary reason they are saying that is because current Republican enthusiasm is so high and Democratic enthusiasm is so low that they assume Democrats have no place to go but up.
But that ignores the reality of momentum. For example, imagine yourself at a Kings game when the home team is leading by 10 points with two minutes to go. The crowd is going nuts. No one considers leaving. Then imagine yourself at a Kings game when the home team is losing by 30 points with two minutes to go. The few remaining fans are silently sitting on their hands. Republicans have the momentum, they think they are going to win and their enthusiasm is like to increase. Democrats know they are in trouble, they think they are going to lose and their enthusiasm is likely to decrease.
But, the simple reality is that Nancy Pelosi has already lost control of the House. There are currently 256 Democrats in the House and 179 Republicans. But, in the last vote, 39 Democrats joined the Republicans in voting against adjournment. If Mary Fallin from Oklahoma had not missed the vote, Boehner’s motion to vote on extending the Bush Tax cuts would have passed:
If the election was held today and every incumbent was re-elected, Nancy Pelosi would still lose control of the House. No one is predicting that. The lowest prediction I have seen shows the Republicans picking up 20 to 25 seats. In any case Pelosi has lost too much support within the Democratic congress to control the legislative agenda. She was voted out of power when those 39 Democrats joined with Republicans. The only remaining question is the strength of the mandate that Republicans will get from this election. We do not know whether or not Republicans will win control of the Senate, but we sure know who has lost control of the House. The fat lady is warming up in the wings and she already knows the tune!
TDM