In November of 2008, the election was a picnic for Democrats. It would have been hard for a Democrat to lose an election anywhere. Now, just 23 months later, the picnic has morphed into panic. Democrats have panicked and they are making major mistakes. For example Alan Grayson ran a really disgusting ad in his House race that has backfired big time:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42818.html
While Grayson is a certified scumbag, well known for outrageous personal attacks on political opponents, this ad was really stupid. This ad shows that he is absolutely desperate. The same is true of Jerry Brown in California. No one is surprised by the classic: “you hired an illegal alien” attack on Meg Whitman, but running it now was a huge mistake. Jerry Brown is an experienced politician and he knows that ad should have been saved until the Friday before the election. But, he panicked and ran it now. Once again, the only plausible explanation is panic. By running it now he just gave Meg Whitman more time to respond and this is likely to hurt him more than help him.
There are currently 259 seats up for election that are currently occupied by Democrats. There are 176 seats currently held by Republicans. Obviously, the Republicans need to take 42 seats away from Democrats in order to win the House. Virtually all political pundits are now predicting that to happen.
It appears that Republicans are leading in something like 70 races. In fact, the Republicans are leading in almost every race where the pollsters thought would be competitive. But, there are a lot of other races out there where no one is even running polls. Democrats are very concerned. For example Barney Franks is so worried that he asked Bill Clinton to campaign for him. Frank is the Chairman of House Financial Services Committee, one of the most powerful positions in congress. He is running in a “safe” Democratic district in Massachusetts, the most Democratic state in the country. Wow! John Dingell has won re-election 28 straight times, but his seat is considered to be in jeopardy. He is pleading for campaign contributions to help him get re-elected in one of the safest congressional districts for Democrats in the country:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0910/42191.html
These are just some of the well-known prominent Democrats who are in trouble. There are lesser known Democrats all over the country where no one is even polling. If people like Frank and Dingell are in trouble, everyone is in trouble.
The solution, for Democrats, is to make this a lot of local elections. Democrats are trying to do just that. A lot of them don’t even admit they are Democrats and I haven’t found any Democrats who are running for re-election based on their record. Instead they are running smear campaign trying to scare voters into voting against their opponent.
But, President Obama is the gift that keeps on giving. He is oblivious to the political damage he is causing to the Democratic Party, so he is out there telling Democrats to buck up and take more credit for doing a great job. Each day he tries to find a new person to blame, since his previous tactic of blaming everything on George Bush clearly isn’t working. He is incredibly thin skinned and he constantly whines about how Republicans are picking on him. That makes him look weak and defensive.
He is unlikely to help a single Democrat gain any votes, but he is managing to help Republicans make this a national election. If the Republicans keep a national election, that is very bad for Democrats.
I used to think that if Republicans had a super good wonderful day they would win about 75 seats. I now think they are likely to win 100 seats and could win more than that. We may wake up on November 3 with a whole country full of Democratic incumbents standing there with a glazed look in their eyes wondering what happened while a whole bunch of newcomers are celebrating. If Democrats don’t find a way to stop the panic, this is going to get worse, a lot worse.
The only good news for Democrats is that congress has adjourned, so neither Pelosi nor Reid is capable of pushing through more dumb legislation before the election. But, as Yogi Berra used to say, “it is getting late early.” Obviously the economy is not going to turn around before the election. In addition, Obama is unlikely to give a great speech that suddenly makes everyone love him again. In fact, most of the things that could happen in the next four weeks, that could impact the election, would be bad for Democrats. The economy won’t recover, but the stock market could easily crash. We won’t win the war in Afghanistan, but things could quickly deteriorate. If there are no terrorist attacks, it won’t help Democrats, but if there is a terrorist attack it will really hurt Obama.
There are sure to be some October surprises by Democrats who are famous for last minute smear campaigns. Think of the DUI story that was released on George Bush the Friday before the 2000 election. That probably cost Bush the lead in the popular vote. But, while some Republicans candidates will fall victim to these kinds of tactics, it will not impact the nationwide trend.
There are more and more signs of a huge political storm poised to sweep across this country. Democrats know that, which is why they have panicked. But panic, in the face of disaster, only makes things worse. I now think the Republicans win more seats in the House than anyone can even imagine. I also think they win the Senate and it won’t even be close. Republicans are always capable of blowing any individual election, but even the traditional Republican arrogance and incompetence cannot slow down this political storm.