Every election works the same. Democrats need to win big in major metropolitan areas. Republicans always win in more rural areas. This is true in every state, in every election. As of today, Democrats are turning out only slightly ahead of Republicans:
Arizona Democrats plus 1 %
Nevada Democrats plus 3%
Florida Democrats plus 2%
North Carolina Democrats plus 5%.
Pennsylvania Democrats plus 43%
(Reports also say that 35% of Democrats have voted, but only 15% of Republicans have voted. They also say that 60% of people haven’t voted. If this is true, and it is Republicans who show up in droves, then don’t assume Biden wins. He obviously agrees, which is why he is in Pennsylvania today. In addition, the voter turnout in Philadelphia, where Democrats win every Pennsylvania election, is not high enough this time.)
There is no guarantee all the registered Democrats who voted, voted for Joe Biden, particularly in rural Pennsylvania.
This reminds me of an incident when I worked for a major corporation. We did a lot of acquisitions and I was part of the due diligence team. I audited a firm and determined that they were grossly underestimating their WC claims. One of the problems with WC is that you don’t know the true cost of claims for a long time. Sometimes this can take up to five years. For this reason, if one estimates the cost of claims after only 12 months, unless the firm is extremely small, that estimate is always wrong, and it is always way too low.
In this case they estimated the cost of WC claims to be $1,000,000. I estimated them to be $3,000,000. The owner of the firm was furious with me. He called me and said: “I would bet my life that my estimate is more accurate than yours.” I thanked him for the kind offer but said I would prefer cash. It is a good thing I didn’t accept that bet because we were both low. He would be dead, and I still wouldn’t have had enough money.
This was a smart man and I respected him, but he simply did not understand the science behind estimating the ultimate cost of WC claims. On the other hand, I was very experienced on this subject and had learned, sometimes the hard way, that no one is capable of estimating WC costs, for any significant number of claims, after only 12 months. The reason is very simple. Those claims that continue and which develop later are all bad. WC claims, unlike wine, do not improve with age.
This is exactly what is happening now, only the problem has been magnified by Democrats going all in on mail-in ballots. They assumed, incorrectly, that this would really increase Democratic turnout. It didn’t. But what it did do was scare Democrats regarding the safety of voting in person. That is why Biden has been screaming at people to go out and vote now. He knows he does not have enough votes.
Trump, on the other hand, has been encouraging people to vote in person because he doesn’t trust Democrats to handle mail-in ballots correctly. By every indication, Republicans are listening. Republican turnout tomorrow is estimated to be at least twice Democratic turnout ,and some say it could be four times Democratic turnout. It is this simple. Democrats are afraid of COVID 19. Republicans are afraid of Democratic fraud. If there is massive turnout tomorrow, that could be signs of a red wave.
Only a few states matter:
Texas. Should be solid Trump, if not, bad sign.
Florida. Should be Trump. If he loses very bad. If he wins big game over.
Georgia. Should be Trump, if he loses bad, but not end of game. If he wins big, good sign.
North Carolina. Should be Trump, if he loses bad, but not end of game. If he wins big, good sign
Virginia. Probably Biden. If Trump wins red wave
Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, New Mexico. Trump could win all three. If he does, big red way.
Minnesota. Bid deal if Trump wins.
Colorado and Vermont. If Trump wins, tidal wave election.
Nevada. May go Trump, not big enough to matter.
The good news is that one way or another the madness ends tomorrow by 8:00 PST. This is will be all up to the counting. I think everyone will be relieved to learn the results, either way. I expect the usual suspects to riot and destroy things, no matter who wins. In some ways, they more be more destructive if they win than if they lose. The only thing certain is that they will at least try, again, to seize the day.
Right now, based on what I see, its looks pretty darn red.
TDM