A lot of people are wondering how the election is going. It looks very good for Donald Trump. Here is the reason why. There is a big difference between when and how Democrats plan to vote and how Republicans plan to vote. The following article in the New York Post is like reports I have seen elsewhere, including in the mainstream media.
https://nypost.com/2020/08/17/trump-backers-more-likely-to-vote-in-person-than-biden-supporters/
Biden Supporters: Mail in ballot: 47%. Early Vote: 21%. Vote in Person on Nov 3: 26%.
Trump Supporters: Mail in ballot: 11%. Early Vote: 20%. Vote in Person on Nov 3: 66%.
Here is what that means. Let’s assume that 75 million people have voted already, and Democrats are outperforming Republicans 60% to 40% right now. No one is claiming that has happened.
| CURRENT VOTE TOTAL | Number of Votes | ||||
| Democrats (Percent) | 60.00% | 45,000,000.00 | |||
| Republicans (Percent) | 40.00% | 33,750,000.00 | |||
| TOTAL | 100.00% | 78,750,000.00 | |||
| PERCENT OF TOTAL | |||||
| Democrat Percent | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% |
| Republican Percent | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% |
| ADDITIONAL VOTES | 25,000,000.00 | 35,000,000.00 | 45,000,000.00 | 55,000,000.00 | 65,000,000.00 |
| Democrat (Percent) | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% |
| Republican (Percent) | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% |
| Additional Democrat | 6,500,000.00 | 9,100,000.00 | 11,700,000.00 | 14,300,000.00 | 16,900,000.00 |
| Additional Republican | 16,500,000.00 | 23,100,000.00 | 29,700,000.00 | 36,300,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 |
| Total Democrat | 51,500,000.00 | 54,100,000.00 | 56,700,000.00 | 59,300,000.00 | 61,900,000.00 |
| Total Republican | 50,250,000.00 | 56,850,000.00 | 63,450,000.00 | 70,050,000.00 | 76,650,000.00 |
| TOTAL VOTE | 101,750,000.00 | 110,950,000.00 | 120,150,000.00 | 129,350,000.00 | 138,550,000.00 |
| Percent Democrat | 50.61% | 48.76% | 47.19% | 45.84% | 44.68% |
| Percent Republican | 49.39% | 51.24% | 52.81% | 54.16% | 55.32% |
If an additional 35 million people vote, and 66% of them vote for Trump, he wins 51.24% to 48.76%. If 25 million or less votes, then Biden could win a close victory. The only way this is wrong is if Democrats show up in equal numbers to Republicans on election day. No one is predicting that.
If Biden is only ahead now by 10 points, say 55% to 45%, that changes everything. If that is true, then only 25 million people need to show up for Trump to win 51.28% to 48.72%,
| Number of People Voting | 75,000,000.00 | Number of Votes | |||
| Democrats (Percent) | 55.00% | 41,250,000.00 | |||
| Republicans (Percent) | 45.00% | 33,750,000.00 | |||
| TOTAL | 100.00% | 75,000,000.00 | |||
| PERCENT OF FINAL TOTAL | |||||
| Democrat Percent | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% | 68.00% |
| Republican Percent | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% | 31.00% |
| ADDITIONAL VOTES | 25,000,000.00 | 35,000,000.00 | 45,000,000.00 | 55,000,000.00 | 65,000,000.00 |
| Number Democrat | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% | 26.00% |
| Number Republican | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% | 66.00% |
| Additional Democrat | 6,500,000.00 | 9,100,000.00 | 11,700,000.00 | 14,300,000.00 | 16,900,000.00 |
| Additional Republican | 16,500,000.00 | 23,100,000.00 | 29,700,000.00 | 36,300,000.00 | 42,900,000.00 |
| Total Democrat | 47,750,000.00 | 50,350,000.00 | 52,950,000.00 | 55,550,000.00 | 58,150,000.00 |
| Total Republican | 50,250,000.00 | 56,850,000.00 | 63,450,000.00 | 70,050,000.00 | 76,650,000.00 |
| TOTAL VOTE | 98,000,000.00 | 107,200,000.00 | 116,400,000.00 | 125,600,000.00 | 134,800,000.00 |
| Percent Democrat | 48.72% | 46.97% | 45.49% | 44.23% | 43.14% |
| Percent Republican | 51.28% | 53.03% | 54.51% | 55.77% | 56.86% |
There are no signs that Biden is running up big margins in places like Philadelphia and South Florida. The margin in Arizona for Biden is reported 3%, not nearly enough. In addition, the votes on election day will be counted immediately, while the mail in votes may take longer. That means Trump is likely to be way ahead on November 3, and unless these assumptions are incorrect, there is no chance Biden can catch up. Democrats seem to realize this, which is why they want to extend mail in voting deadlines.
This also assumes that Democrats will vote for Biden and Republicans will vote for Trump. But, up to 20% of people who are attending Trump rallies are registered Democrats. Perhaps I am wrong, but I suspect more Democrats will vote for Trump than Republican will vote for Biden. If any significant percent of Democrats support Trump, it is game over.
The question is which is correct. The above actual data or the public opinion polls that were so wrong in 2016. It is important to note that these are national averages not battleground states. Even if Trump loses the popular vote, he still has a good chance of winning at the electoral college. We will know Tuesday night, but so far, the numbers game favors Trump, not Biden.
TDM