I prepared the following analysis to summarize the current projections for the November election.  All these projections are based on the lastest Rasmussen polls.  A couple of things are crystal clear:

1.  Republicans have improved their position in 14 states.  While Democrats have improved their chances of keeping Senate seats in some states, they have made no progress toward taking any Republican seats.  The only exception is in Florida, where Crist switched to run as an independent after losing big time in the Republican Primary.  Right now Rubio is ahead of Crist.

2.  Control of the Senate is definitely in play.  Even if the election was today the Republicans would have a good chance of winning 51 seats.  If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and Democrats, the Republican chances of taking back control of the Senate increase exponentially.

If Harry Reid loses in Nevada and Barbara Boxer loses in California, it will be very difficult for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

CURRENT SENATE   57 DEMOCRATS  41 REPUBLICANS 2 INDEPENDENTS

PROJECTED GOP PICK-UP (NOT INCLUDING TOSS-UP STATES)   5

PROJECTED SENATE   52  DEMOCRATS  46 REPUBLICANS  2 INDEPENDENTS

REPUBLICANS HAVE IMPROVED THEIR POSITION, SINCE JANUARY IN THE FOLLOWING STATES:

Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, California, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. 

 If the Republicans win the toss up states, which are Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin, they will be within 1 vote of taking control.  There are four states consider leaning Democrat where the Republican could easily win.  These are California, Connecticut, Nevada and Washington.

 While it is too early to predict Republicans taking control of the Senate, it is certainly possible.  If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and for Democrats, Republicans could do even better.  Right now only seven Democratic seats can really be considered safe:  Hawaii, Maryland, New York, New York (S), Oregon, Vermont and West Virginia.   Even two of these seats, New York (S) and West Virginia could go Republican under the right circumstances.

 While it is mathematically possible for Republicans to get a 60 vote majority, Republicans would have to beat either Inouye, Mikulski, Leahy or Schumer.  Absent illness or death, that would seem highly improbable.   I think the very best, roll the table day for the GOP would result in a total flip with the end result 57 Republicans, 41 Democrats and 2 Independents.  Not very likely, but also not impossible, particular if Obama continues his self destruction tour.

 TDM

TDM