The next two weeks are going to be interesting. The Trump campaign is hoping to run the table and seal the deal. They may run the table, but it won’t seal the deal. The Republican establishment is praying that John Kasich wins in Michigan and Ohio so he can become the establishment alternative to Trump. The Rubio camp appears to be preparing for bad weather. The polls are all over the place and it is impossible to predict much. In addition, there are not a lot of polls.
Fox News is desperately pushing a Kasich surge in Michigan. They are predicting the voters will respond to the kinder, gentler Republican establishment governor. They are praying that voters turn away from the bitter rhetoric of Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. They have given up on Rubio.
Best case for Trump would be to win big in Michigan, Mississippi and Idaho and then win in Florida and Ohio. The pundits will announce that the race is over and Trump has this sewn up. The Cruz campaign will be silently celebrating because they know the opposite is true. This would result in both Kasich and Rubio dropping out of the race. If they drop out and this becomes Trump vs Cruz, the most likely result is that Ted Cruz easily wins most of the remaining states and gets more than enough delegates to win the nomination.
Best case for Cruz is that he wins in Mississippi and Idaho and he comes in second in Michigan, Florida or Ohio. Obviously if he won any of the big three states it would be huge but while that is possible it is far from likely.
Worse case for the Republican Party and for the country is that Kasich wins in Michigan and Ohio and Rubio wins in Florida. That would almost certainly result in no one winning the nomination outright and a chaotic Republican convention. That would be unlikely to end up well.
Fox News has given up on Rubio and is now pushing Kasich. Once again they are grossly underestimating the anger toward the establishment in both parties. John Kasich is a nice guy, but he is a typical compassionate conservative Republican RINO who will almost instantly compromise with Democrats in their mission to pave the road to disaster. Most Republicans have figured that out, which is why Kasich has trouble getting north of 10% if most states. The only chance for Kasich to get the nomination is if neither Trump nor Cruz gets enough votes during the primary elections and the convention unites behind Kasich. He openly dreams of this. It is easily the worst case scenario for the Republican Party and the country.
TDM