It is extremely challenging for the average person in the U.S. to understand the challenges in dealing with Iran. For a long time, this was simple. The Ayatollah was in charge. He hated Israel. He hated the U.S. He was a Muslim extremism. More importantly, he was tied to the doctrine of Velayat-e Faqih. This is sometimes referred to as “Mahdism.” It is unlikely that many Americans understand the significance of this. But it is crucial to understanding what is at stake regarding negotiations with Iran.
To make a long story short, the Sh’ia Muslims in Iran believe in the 12th Iman. Muhammad al-Mahdi is the twelfth and final Iman. They believe he is alive and in hiding since 868, in a state of “occultation” meaning that Allah miraculously caused him to disappear. He is waiting to return and usher in the takeover of the Muslim, and ultimately, the entire world.
True believers believe it is their duty to pave the way for the return of the Mahdi by eradicating Israel and Zionism. The following article in the Middle East Forum explains:
Mahdism: The Apocalyptic Ideology Behind Iran’s Nuclear Program – Middle East Forum
More recently, however, the existence of Israel is being viewed and understood as the ‘greatest barrier’ to the reappearance of the 12th Imam. According to the doctrine of Mahdism, part of preparing for the reappearance of the 12th Imam is removing all obstacles and barriers to his return.
This helps explain the IRGC’s demand for a nuclear weapon. The key factor here is described as follows:
For nations whose leaders and upcoming leaders have been systematically indoctrinated into believing that the greatest good is to usher in a “rightly guided” figure from Islamic legend — no matter the cost, including to that nation itself — the implications are nothing short of apocalyptic.
Nations with nuclear weapons hesitate to use them because of the automatic massive destruction in the event of a nuclear war. This is sometimes described as
Mutually Assured Destruction (“MAD”). If one side uses a nuclear weapon the other side would retaliate, resulting in massive destruction of everyone involved. This has worked since no nuclear weapon has been used since the U.S. dropped atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II. In effect, using a nuclear weapon would be an act of suicide.
This is the essential problem. Some people who believe in Mahdism are not only unafraid of the automatic self-destruction expected from a nuclear war, but they may also welcome it, because they believe it paves the way for the 12th Iman to resurface and conquer the world for Islam. Losing millions of their own people is not even considered to be a problem. It is impossible to overstate the risk of allowing people with this world view to have a nuclear weapon. They would be far more likely to use it, without regard to the consequences.
A problem that should not be ignored is that these same people have overseen the education system in Iran and there are reports that youths have been taught Mahdism and are firm believers. This is why just killing the Ayatollah and the leadership of the IRGC may do little to solve the problem. The real question is what do the people of Iran want and odds are a substantial number of them want to see the destruction of Israel and the great Satan, the U.S.
During and prior to World War II Japan was dominated by militarists. There are numerous examples of Japanese soldiers choosing annihilation over surrender. Yet following the war, a different group of leaders took over, who had a very different view, and they changed the Japanese culture.
The point is that negotiating a peace treaty designed to stop Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon is only part of the problem. Prior to the 1979 revolution, Iran was a vastly different place. It is not enough to just physically stop Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. The long-term solution requires recognizing the danger of Mahdism and finding a way to change people from an apocalyptic attitude to one where it is possible to transform into a peaceful society.
It is too bad that Democrats, more focused on Trump Derangement Syndrome than reality, do not understand something. We only have one President at a time, and if we undermine that President, we undermine the entire country. Democrats do not care, their obsession with TDS makes it impossible to even consider supporting the President of the United States. Hatred of Donald Trump overwhelms everything else.
We all better hope and pray that Donald Trump succeeds in stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. What, exactly, could be more important?
TDM