If you watched the news last night, you probably believe Donald Trump has sewn up the Republican nomination. That would certainly be true if the only voters were liberals in the main stream media and the pundits on Fox News. But the facts paint a very different picture. At every stage in this election all of the pundits have over-estimated Donald Trump and/or John Kasich and/or Marco Rubio. At every stage in this election cycle, all of the pundits have underestimated Ted Cruz. At every stage they have been wrong. At some point they might want to look at the actual data.
What happened last night is nothing short of a huge strategic setback for Donald Trump. He won the battle, in that he won Michigan, Mississippi and Hawaii. He is likely to win more battles, like in Florida and Ohio. But ultimately he is going to be defeated, because Ted Cruz is beating the only people left capable of giving Donald Trump the nomination; John Kasich and Marco Rubio.
Rubio is finished after last night. It is so bad that he would be smart to drop out of the race and endorse Cruz before the Florida primary. Otherwise he is doomed to a humiliating defeat in his own state. John Kasich has come in second in one state and third in another. In every other state he has trouble reaching double digits. He has admitted that his goal is to prevent Trump or Cruz from winning so he can get the nomination in a brokered convention. That is beyond delusional.
Cruz beat Kasich and Rubio in every state. Only in Michigan was it even close. Kasich spent a fortune in Michigan, he practically lived there during the last couple of weeks and the airways were flooded with anti-Trump and anti-Cruz ads. Cruz was sick all week and only showed up in Michigan just before midnight on Monday night. All the pundits thought Kasich would do very well and that he might even beat Trump. He didn’t even beat Cruz. Rubio lost everywhere.
In case anyone is impressed with the 47.3% total by Trump in Mississippi, remember that Mississippi is another open primary state. So is Michigan. Odds are pretty high that a majority of Republicans did not vote for Donald Trump. In Mississippi, Hillary was obviously going to win the Democratic primary by a huge margin. It would be very tempting for Democrats to cross over and vote for Donald Trump, since they view him as the worst possible choice for Republicans.
Numerous polls show that Donald Trump’s unfavorability ratings are sky high. The following NBC/WSJ poll is demonstrates the problem:
“Although Donald Trump is leading the Republican horse race, a majority of American voters believe his comments on the campaign trail are insulting; 6 in 10 say he’s harming the Republican Party’s image; and nearly two-thirds have a negative opinion of him — making Trump the most unpopular figure in the poll.”
Even more devastating is the following conclusion: “What’s more, just half of Republican primary voters — 53 percent — say they’d be satisfied with Trump as the party’s presidential nominee.”
If these numbers are accurate, and they sure look to be accurate, Trump is likely to suffer a humiliating defeat in November. He literally may be the ONLY Republican in the field capable of losing to Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
How did this happen? The answer is quite easy. People really are that disgusted with the Republican establishment. Trump feeds off that anger. When Mitt Romney hammered Donald Trump with cold hard facts, all people heard was another Republican establishment figure telling them how to feel. People are sick and tired of the cultured elite in both parties arrogantly ignoring ordinary citizens. They are sick and tired of people pretending to share our values only to compromise them away as soon as they get elected.
The good news is that there are two anti-establishment candidates and one of them is NOT Donald Trump. If this is not a two man race today, it will be a two man race after next Tuesday. Neither John Kasich nor Marco Rubio has any chance of winning the nomination. That is even more obvious today than it was yesterday. It will be undeniable after next Tuesday.
It is quite simple, except to the so-called experts. After next Tuesday, voters will have a choice between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. Unless the 60 to 65% of people who consider Donald Trump to be unqualified to be President change their mind, Ted Cruz is going to start winning everywhere. Even better news for Cruz is that the Republican establishment is not trying to help. If the Republican establishment just goes home and shuts up, Cruz has a very good chance of winning this. Sometimes, “Silence is Golden.”
TDM