I prepared the following analysis to summarize the current projections for the November election.  All these projections are based on the lastest Rasmussen polls.  A couple of things are crystal clear:

1.  Republicans have improved their position in 14 states.  While Democrats have improved their chances of keeping Senate seats in some states, they have made no progress toward taking any Republican seats.  The only exception is in Florida, where Crist switched to run as an independent after losing big time in the Republican Primary.  Right now Rubio is ahead of Crist.

2.  Control of the Senate is definitely in play.  Even if the election was today the Republicans would have a good chance of winning 51 seats.  If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and Democrats, the Republican chances of taking back control of the Senate increase exponentially.

If Harry Reid loses in Nevada and Barbara Boxer loses in California, it will be very difficult for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

CURRENT SENATE   57 DEMOCRATS  41 REPUBLICANS 2 INDEPENDENTS

PROJECTED GOP PICK-UP (NOT INCLUDING TOSS-UP STATES)   5

PROJECTED SENATE   52  DEMOCRATS  46 REPUBLICANS  2 INDEPENDENTS

REPUBLICANS HAVE IMPROVED THEIR POSITION, SINCE JANUARY IN THE FOLLOWING STATES:

Arkansas, Delaware, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, California, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Washington and Wisconsin. 

 If the Republicans win the toss up states, which are Colorado, Florida, Illinois and Wisconsin, they will be within 1 vote of taking control.  There are four states consider leaning Democrat where the Republican could easily win.  These are California, Connecticut, Nevada and Washington.

 While it is too early to predict Republicans taking control of the Senate, it is certainly possible.  If trends continue to deteriorate for Obama and for Democrats, Republicans could do even better.  Right now only seven Democratic seats can really be considered safe:  Hawaii, Maryland, New York, New York (S), Oregon, Vermont and West Virginia.   Even two of these seats, New York (S) and West Virginia could go Republican under the right circumstances.

 While it is mathematically possible for Republicans to get a 60 vote majority, Republicans would have to beat either Inouye, Mikulski, Leahy or Schumer.  Absent illness or death, that would seem highly improbable.   I think the very best, roll the table day for the GOP would result in a total flip with the end result 57 Republicans, 41 Democrats and 2 Independents.  Not very likely, but also not impossible, particular if Obama continues his self destruction tour.

 TDM

TDM

Professor Dunning, Cornel University, did a study of incompetent people in 2000.  He was shocked to discover that the number one characteristic of an incompetent person is that they don’t know they are incompetent.  In fact his study showed that incompetent people tended to be extremely confident in their ability, even more confident than people who actually can perform well.  

http://articles.sfgate.com/2000-01-18/news/17635543_1_percentile-dunning-incompetent

Perhaps this, more than any other study, demonstrates the problem with the liberal left.   The reason they are so arrogant when they are so clearly wrong is that they are incapable of even recognizing the truth.   Even when confronted with facts that contradict their opinion, they still think they are right.

The following articles prove the point:

Harold Ford and George Stephanopoulos are competent.  They recognize that the ground zero mosque has nothing to do with freedom of religion.  This is about recognizing the simple reality that putting a mosque in this location is a really bad idea:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/scott-whitlock/2010/08/17/ex-dem-aide-stephanopoulos-and-ex-dem-congressman-discuss-impact-ny-

Eugene Robinson is not competent.  He thinks it’s Republicans who fail to understand the issue:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/16/AR2010081603306.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

Anita Dunn is incompetent.   Note the arrogant, condescending tone, based on utter nonsense.  Even some prominent Muslims are speaking up saying this is a really bad idea.  But Anita Dunn, who considers Mother Theresa and Chairman Mao to be equally great, cannot understand this:

http://dailycaller.com/2010/08/17/dunn-acts-as-obama-attack-dog-on-mosque-says-gop-solidifying-its-reputation-for-intolerance/

Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand are competent.  They get it:

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/2010/08/17/2010-08-17_surprised_pols_call_obama_a_party_pooper.html

Here’s the bottom line.  This is why hard-core left-wing liberals have always failed and why they always will fail.   They can never succeed, because they are incompetent.  And, according to Dunning’s law, they are incapable of realizing they are incompetent, so there is no hope of change.  Nothing Obama has done in the last month or so contradicts the theory.

TDM

The following is the statement by Barack Obama regarding his celebration of Ramadan in the White House this Friday:

Ramadan is a time when Muslims around the world reflect upon the wisdom and guidance that comes with faith, and the responsibility that human beings have to one another, and to God.  This is a time when families gather, friends host iftars, and meals are shared.  But Ramadan is also a time of intense devotion and reflection – a time when Muslims fast during the day and pray during the night; when Muslims provide support to others to advance opportunity and prosperity for people everywhere.  For all of us must remember that the world we want to build – and the changes that we want to make – must begin in our own hearts, and our own communities.

These rituals remind us of the principles that we hold in common, and Islam’s role in advancing justice, progress, tolerance, and the dignity of all human beings.   Ramadan is a celebration of a faith known for great diversity and racial equality.  And here in the United States, Ramadan is a reminder that Islam has always been part of America and that American Muslims have made extraordinary contributions to our country. And today, I want to extend my best wishes to the 1.5 billion Muslims around the world – and your families and friends – as you welcome the beginning of Ramadan.

Sadly, I suspect Barack Obama believes this to be true.  But the problem is that Islam’s definition of justice, progress, tolerance and dignity of all human beings has no resemblance to the Judeo-Christian definition of those concepts.  Under Islam, justice means Sharia law.  Classic example is that unfortunate woman who is about to be stoned to death in Iran for adultery.  Under Islam, progress means an Islamic republic, with Sharia law and mandatory worship of Allah.  Under Islam tolerance means other religions must never ever say anything negative about Islam, but infidels (non-muslims) can be exterminated.  Under Islam dignity means that women cannot go to school, cannot drive a car, cannot have a job, cannot travel outside the home without a male escort and in many cases must wear burkas.

I wonder if anyone in the White House figured out that Ramadan traditionally ends on September 10, 2010, so the big traditional celebration would be held on September 11.  That is such a nice touch!

It is now clear that either Obama is deliberately trying to destroy his own political future, or he is really that naïve and incompetent.  The Democrats were already in desperate trouble and our genius in charge decides to pour gas on the fire by celebrating Ramadan in the White House and then talking about how Islam can teach us tolerance.   People are outraged over the out of control spending and Michelle takes a wildly extravagant vacation to Spain, followed by a rush trip to the Gulf to show they care, before their long overdue 10 day vacation in Martha’s Vineyard.  Of course this was preceded by Obama’s trip to Texas where he tried to blame the bad economy on Bush.  It is hard to imagine him doing more damage to his own political cause if he tried.  Therefore, I must conclude, that yes,  he really is that naïve and incompetent.  We don’t have to worry about anyone destroying Obama: he is doing it to himself.

I know a lot of people are concerned because they believe Obama is deliberately trying to destroy this country.  They need fear no more.  Nothing could protect us more from progressive government than to have leadership of this caliber leading the charge.   Roll Tide!

TDM

The Senate primary election in Colorado will be another indicator of outlook for the November election.   Bennet is the designated Democratic Party favorite.  He was appointed, by Democratic Governor Bill Ritter,  to the position to replace Ken Salazar, the current Secretary of the Interior.  Prior to Salazar leaving this seat it would have been considered one of the safest Democratic Senate seats.

Bennet had everything going for him.  He had lot of money.  He was given stimulus money hand outs from the Obama administration.  He is the incumbent.  He had strong support in the media.   Obama personally campaigned for him.  The Obama administration even tried to bribe Romanof into dropping out to clear the path for Bennet.  (sound familiar?)   But a funny thing happened on the way to the Forum.  Romanof, who had squat for money, started to gain on Bennet.  Then, at the last minute, Bill Clinton showed up to campaign for Romanof.  Odds are that Clinton had little impact, because about 60% of the vote was by absentee ballot and those people had voted before Clinton got involved.   It is becoming clear that the Clintons are more and more willing to distance themselves from Obama.

If Bennet loses, it is another public slap in the face for Obama.  It basically means NOBODY he has campaigned for has even survived the primary.  That would be very bad news for the administration.

Romanof is not exactly a great choice for the Senate.  He brags about being more progressive than Bennet.  Since Bennet is a hard-core tax and spend liberal, that is pretty amazing.  It looks like either Republican candidate will beat either Democratic candidate.

So, here’s the deal.  Obama can’t win anything tonight.  Even if Bennet squeaks by, Obama will get zero credit.  If Romanof loses, it will be viewed (correctly) as another big Obama bust.   If Bennet loses, Democrats will be in a massive race to see who can distance themselves fastest and farthest from the Annointed One.

TDM

It is increasingly clear that a revolution will take place on November 2, 2010.  At first, I was hoping for the Republicans to win back the House.  Then I was hoping they would win back control of the Senate.  Both of those events are now very likely with the takeover of the House almost certain.  The White House is shock.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/wehner/338666

I have been checking the polls and unless they are totally wrong things are even worse than is being reported.   Here is the latest on the House races from Real Clear Poliitics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

But this is extremely misleading.    The problem with this analysis is that there are no longer 148 “safe” Democratic seats.  That analysis was based on prior records of incumbent Democrats winning re-election, not based on current polling data.  Democrats are behind in about 48 of those “safe” districts.

What this means is that there are between 80 and 100 seats where Democrats probably win regardless of national trends.  These are districts where there is a minority Democratic congressional representative in a highly ethnic district.  Those people are extremely unlikely to lose.  (Think Maxime Waters) There are also some representatives from very liberal non-ethnic districts which will also likely continue to be Democratic.  (Think Nancy Pelosi)  But the rest of them are definitely in play and right now the Democrats are trailing everywhere!

We could, and I emphasize the word “could” see the Republicans end up with more than 300 seats in the House. 

Following is the latest from the Senate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

The odds are looking better that Republicans retake control of the Senate.   The bottom line is that only 37 Senators are up for re-election.  Of that number, 19 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans.  Most of the projections that have Democrats retaining control of the Senate require Barbara Boxer winning re-election in California.  If she loses in California, it will be very hard for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

Here is the shocking news.  There are NO safe Senate seats this year.

Bayh, Evan – (D – IN) Class III 131 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5623 Web Form: bayh.senate.gov/contact/email/

Bennet, Michael F. – (D – CO) Class III 702 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5852 Web Form: bennet.senate.gov/contact/

Boxer, Barbara – (D – CA) Class III 112 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3553 Web Form: boxer.senate.gov/contact/email/policy.cfm

Burris, Roland W. – (D – IL) Class III 387 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2854 Web Form: burris.senate.gov/contact/contact.cfm

Dodd, Christopher J. – (D – CT) Class III 448 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2823 Web Form: dodd.senate.gov/index.php?q=node/3130

Dorgan, Byron L. – (D – ND) Class III 322 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2551 Web Form: dorgan.senate.gov/contact/contact_form.cfm

Feingold, Russell D. – (D – WI) Class III 506 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5323 Web Form: feingold.senate.gov/contact_opinion.html

Inouye, Daniel K. – (D – HI) Class III 722 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3934 Web Form: inouye.senate.gov/Contact/Email-Form.cfm

Leahy, Patrick J. – (D – VT) Class III 433 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4242 Web Form: leahy.senate.gov/contact.cfm

Lincoln, Blanche L. – (D – AR) Class III 355 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4843 Web Form: lincoln.senate.gov/contact/email.cfm

Mikulski, Barbara A. – (D – MD) Class III 503 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4654 Web Form: mikulski.senate.gov/Contact/contact.cfm

Murray, Patty – (D – WA) Class III 173 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2621 Web Form: murray.senate.gov/email/index.cfm

Reid, Harry – (D – NV) Class III 522 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3542 Web Form: reid.senate.gov/contact/index.cfm

Schumer, Charles E. – (D – NY) Class III 313 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6542 Web Form: schumer.senate.gov/new_website/contact.cfm

Specter, Arlen – (D – PA) Class III 711 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4254 specter.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.Co…

Wyden, Ron – (D – OR) Class III 223 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5244 Web Form: wyden.senate.gov/contact/

Here is the list of Democrats up for re-election in 2010:

 Even now Democrats are “expecting” to lose 8 Senate seats.  This is the projection by the die-hard optimists.  It is possible that the Democrats will lose every current seat, because there is a nationwide throw the bums out attitude.  Just look at the above list.  None of these people are guaranteed re-election.  The Republicans would have to win every Republican seat and 17 Democratic seats to get a 60 vote majority.  While that is far from predictable, it is not outside the realm of possibility.

Finally, recall that 2010 is a census year.  That means that Republicans would be in charge of making redistricting decisions.  This election could literally remove Democrats from power for an entire generation.

The odds increase daily, primarily because of the continued arrogance and incompetence of this administration.  The Spanish Fly venture by Michelle Obama was a huge mistake that will cost Democrats big time this fall.  Unless sometime big happens soon, this is going to be a wild ride.

(Democrats are beyond desperate:  Re-read Wag the Donkey.  Remember there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal.  No party in recent history has been more cornered than the Democratic Party this year.)

TDM

The decision by the federal judge in San Francisco to declare proposition 8 unconstitutional was a gift, to Republicans.  This decision may just push the entire Democratic Party over the edge with regard to the November election.  The Democrats were already in deep yogurt and the ethics trials of Charlie Rangel and Maxine Waters made things worse. 

Now throw in this ruling and you have a perfect political storm.  The vast majority of Americans do not want gay marriage.  It has been voted down every time it was put on a ballot, anytime, anywhere.  People don’t want gay marriage and they specifically don’t want gay marriage imposed on them by a gay activist judge after they voted against it, TWICE!  There is no worse example of judicial activism than the overturn of a constitutional amendment because the judge thinks it is unconstitutional.  This is absurd and no amount of spin is going to make it go away.  The very last thing Democrats want to talk about, other than the economy, and illegal immigration is gay marriage.  (Actually, what would you want to talk about if you were a Democrat up for re-election?   I know, blame Bush!!!)

Right now Elena Kagan appears to be on her way to the Supreme Court, but don’t be surprised if this doesn’t even derail that.  Democratic Senators up for re-election this fall should think really hard before voting to confirm this left wing radical to a permanent position on the Supreme Court.  Republicans would be wise to find a way to delay the vote until after the August recess.   If they manage to delay the vote, she may never be confirmed.  If she is confirmed, the RINO Republicans and Senators pretending to be conservatives who voted for this nomination will pay a heavy price at the polls the next time they face the electorate. 

If you think the polls for Democrats seeking re-election are bad now, just wait a couple of weeks.  The wind is blowing at the Republicans back and by the end of Labor Day weekend Democrats will be in full retreat.  Enjoy the ride!

TDM

The following picture is obviously doctored and is extremely unflattering to the President of the United States.  It is also hysterical, so I couldn’t resist posting it:

I got this from radiopatriot.wordpress.com.  I am not sure of the original source.

Sarah Palin said Obama lacked the cojones to take on illegal immigration.  Rush Limbaugh said Obama added a dose of must needed estrogen to the View.  Here is the point:  the reasons these are so funny is that they strike a nerve.  Let’s face it, Obama is a girly man.  He went to the view, because that is where he felt comfortable.   

TDM

Que Sera Sera.  What ever will be, will be.  The future not ours to see, Que Sera Sera.  

It turns out that Shirley Sherrod is just a little different than the wonderful, caring person, maliciously smeared by the vast right wing conspiracy.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/07/real_sherrod_story_still_untol.html

The liberal left was so busy slamming Fox News for smearing this innocent dove that they failed to notice that Obama has already fired her before Fox even mentioned her.  Of course that did not stop Howard Dean from lying about it, but what’s new there?

It turns out that if you listen to her whole speech, that she really is a racist.  There are a lot of comments about us mean ole white folks.  But it gets worse, much worse.  If this article is accurate, she may have been running a massive scheme to give millions of dollars in highly questionable payments to minority (think black) farmers.  She was so good at this that she appears to have gotten payments for 86,000 black farmers.  This was a really good accomplishment, because there only are about 40,000 black farmers in the entire country.  What makes this really special is that she appears to have gotten about $13 million for herself.  Nice work!

She is now thinking of suing Andrew Breitbart for smearing her with the video showing her saying what she said.  I hope she does, because that would make this story impossible to ignore.  Sadly she has probably already been told to sit down and shut up and hope no one notices.

If this story hits the main stream media the results will be devastating for the Obama administration, the Clinton administration and the liberal left.  For that reason alone, it is hard to imagine them actually reporting on this.  But, their ratings are in the tank and money is money.  Que sera sera.

TDM

After months of listening to Obama pontificate about the worst environmental disaster in the history of mankind, it turns out the oil just may be gone.   When you think about it, the damage did seem to be limited to a relatively small area of Louisiana. 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews_excl/ynews_excl_sc3270

My own antenna was a little late on this one.  Anderson Cooper had a real expert on his show shortly after the leak began.  This guy calmly explained that this was no big deal, that the dispersants were working well and that the bacteria would gear up and eat it all with no major problems.  He said the Gulf of Mexico is a really big place and it could absorb a lot of oil without much impact.  Of course Anderson Cooper was hoping for doom and gloom, so this guy was quickly shoved aside and ignored.  It turns out he was one of the few people who understood the problem from the start.   I wish I had paid more attention.

I should have noticed that the media coverage was following the same pattern.  A couple of nice gory pictures of pelicans slimed from head to toe creating the impression that the world was coming to an end.  In hindsight, it seems pretty obvious that we were seeing the same pictures over and over and over again and listening to the same malcontents exploit the opportunity to bitch on national TV.   I should have known better.   After all, this is the same group of clowns who portrayed Katrina as the worst emergency response effort in history, while ignoring what just may have been the best mass rescue effort in history.  But it was so much fund watch Obama step on his gonads that I failed to notice that there appeared to be no there, there.

Everyone, and I mean everyone, was hoping for a real disaster.  Republicans wanted this to be bad so that it would prove that Obama wasn’t up to the job.  They got their wish.  Obama botched this from day one.  Now, after he has declared this to be the worst environmental disaster in the history of mankind, it turns out we just get lightly oiled fish for supper.  Democrats wanted this to be a real disaster so they could ban all oil drilling and force us to buy those handy dandy Chevy Volts for a cool $41k.  Just because the car only has a range of about 40 miles doesn’t mean it’s not a great deal!  The media wanted a disaster because their ratings were in the tank.  Even the people in Louisiana wanted a big disaster, because big disasters often result in big payouts.  The most pissed people in America are all those attorneys who were licking their chops at all those big claims.

In the end, it appears that BP got it pretty right from the start.  If the Obama administration hadn’t intervened and stopped BP from using those nasty dispersants, there might have been very little environmental damage at all:

 http://www.maineville.com/detail/144655.html

I should have known better.  I mean seriously, when has Obama gotten anything right?   Exactly.

TDM

Normally, the shortest route to the truth is to just assume the exact opposite of anything said by Ahmadinejad.  But, this time, I think he is right.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100727/wl_nm/us_iran_ahmadinejad_attack 

Predictions are always risky, but I will make one.  I believe that Barrack Obama will seriously consider ordering an attack on Iran, by combined U.S. and Israeli forces on or about October 29, 2010.  Then there will be a public announcement and a call to national unity, with Obama surrounded by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  The, not so subliminal, message will be that it would be unthinkable for a change of leadership during such a major crisis.

There is precedence for Democrats making these types of decisions to solve political problems.   LBJ ordered the unilateral cessation of bombing over North Vietnam on October 31, 1968.  At that time it was becoming obvious that the North Vietnamese were on the ropes and ready to quit.  I believe that LBJ did this as a last ditch desperate effort to get Hubert Humphrey elected President.   

Bill Clinton did this twice.  First, when he ordered a 4 day bombing campaign against Iraq on December 14, 1998, just before the start of his impeachment hearing in the House.  Predictably some Democratic supporters even suggested “postponing or cancelling the hearing” because of the national emergency.  There was nothing unique about December 1998, with regard to Iraq, other than Clinton’s political problems.  The timing of this attack was very convenient for Clinton.  I still remember when even Ted Koppel noticed the convenience of the timing, but said he would not ask any further questions because that would be “unthinkable.”

Second, after Clinton was acquitted in February, he launched the air attack on Serbia in March of 1999.  Regardless of what anyone thinks about who is right or wrong in the Balkans, no one has ever made a case that this was a threat to our national security.  Milosevic was a lot of things, but a threat to the U.S. was not on the list.   Clinton never even tried to get UN approval and he also did not bother discussing this with congress.  The “war” in the Balkans was another convenient distraction for a wounded President.

Obama faces a complete political disaster in November.  If something doesn’t happen, Republicans will definitely take over the House and may take over the Senate.  Obama knows that if this happens, he will immediately become a weakened lame duck President.  He may also literally fear being impeached.   Desperate times call for desperate measures.   The economy sucks.  Health Care reform is a disaster.  The stimulus is not working.  The financial reform bill isn’t working either.  Obama MUST do SOMETHING.  Nothing is working out domestically, so what about overseas?   But what are the options?  Afghanistan?…no…not going that well.  North Korea?  no…they already have a nuclear weapon.  Hmm.  Iran.  “That’s it, Iran.  Everyone hates Iran.  Even the Republicans will have to back me if I attack Iran!”   Therefore, I predict that the Obama administration is seriously considering an attack on Iran.  Just imagine, it’s easy if you try.  On the eve of the election President Obama will go on national television to announce an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and call for national unity during this time of crisis.  He will give the speech from the White House, surrounded by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  They may even sing God Bless America again.  I feel warm and fuzzy all over

I recall when Richard Little did an impression of LBJ after his famous speech where he announced he would not run for re-election.  LBJ (Little) said:  “I come here tonight, because I have no place else to go.”   Exactly. 

TDM