A few years ago some out of control teenagers played a game called chicken. Two cars would back off a considerable distance and then take off at high speed aiming directly at each other. The first person to veer off to avoid the head-on collision was the chicken. Playing Chicken was never a good idea, but in most cases the participants survived being neither participant was really interested in playing suicide. But what if you found yourself playing chicken with an irrational opponent, someone who would rather die than be called chicken?
Today Obama is playing chicken with the Republicans in congress. There are reports that Senator Reid brought a bi-partisan solution to the President, involving a debt limit increase and spending cuts, but Obama said no.
If this is true, then Obama has made a major mistake. Senator Reid has tried to carry the water for Obama on this issue all along. It was Senator Reid who had the Senate table the Cut, Cap and Balance Legislation last week without allowing any debate or amendments. He would not have agreed to Boehner’s short-term deal unless he was sure of support by Democratic senators. Forget Reid’s proposal, Republicans know who blinked first.
I believe this is true. That means that Boehner is almost certainly going to get this bi-partisan deal passed by the House. He is then going to send it to the Senate, where it is going to be difficult, if not impossible, for Reid to block it. At that point it will be up to Obama to veto it. If he signs it, he has a big problem because this will come up again at the end of the year, the economy will be worse, it will be the start of the primary season, and Republicans will be even more determined. On the other hand, if he vetoes it that will really anger Senators in his own party. They cannot afford to vote down such a realistic deal when so many are up for re-election next fall.
It is impossible to predict anything in this environment. The most likely outcome would be for the House and the Senate to over-ride the veto. But that will literally mean a full scale revolt by Democrats against Obama’s leadership on the economy. Once Obama loses a vote like that, he will never recover politically.
It is also possible that if the President rejects a straight forward common sense deal, that just might convince members in both parties that Cut, Cap and Balance is the only real long term solution.
A lot of people think that Obama will swallow hard and sign the bill. I wouldn’t bet on that. I think Republicans may be playing chicken with an irrational opponent. That makes playing chicken a very dangerous game indeed.
TDM