The fires of rebellion are spreading throughout the Middle East.  Since most countries are much less tolerant of foreign journalists than Egypt, we don’t have much news coverage.  We do know that there were clashes in Yemen, Bahrain, Algeria, Palestine, and Iran.  There have also been reports of unrest in Lebanon, Gaza, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.  We also don’t even know the final results in Egypt. 

So far the pattern has been for the governments to make desperate concessions in an attempt to end civil unrest.   At some point, this will end.  Unfortunately, it will probably end in bloodshed.  I fear we are on the eve of destruction.

This is not the first time this sort of thing has happened.  Following is a statement given by Alexander Guchkov on May 10, 1917.  Mr. Guchkov was the Minister of War and he was a key figure in the “Revolutionary Government” and personally had accepted the abdication of Tsar Nicholas II.  The similarity between the Russia of 1917 and Egypt today are remarkable.  We do well to read his word and pay attention, because history has a dreadful habit of repeating itself.

Alexander Guchkov on Russian Civil Unrest

Unfortunately the first feeling of radiant joy evoked by the revolution has given place to one of pain and anxiety.

The Provisional Government explained the cause of this in its recent declaration, in which it was pointed out that the destruction of the old forms of public life, to which an end had been put by the revolution, had been effected more rapidly than had the creation of new forms to replace them.  ….

Gentlemen, some time ago the country realized that our motherland was in danger.  Since then we have gone a step further, for our motherland is on the edge of an abyss.

If you want to read more on this subject, following is the link to the website:

http://www.firstworldwar.com/source/russia_guchkov.htm

Guchkov warned that the destruction of the old forms of public life is much easier than the creation of new forms to replace them.  This is the problem in Egypt and it is the problem all over the world.  Those who are unhappy are inspired to destroy the existing form of government.  That is understandable.  But it is always easier to destroy something than to build it up. 

We do not know what governments may fall as a result of this wave of unrest.  But if there is a rush to form a new government, without taking the time to get it right, the results are likely to be disastrous.  

The Revolutionary war was fought from 1775 to 1783.  Following the war our country was governed by the Articles of Confederation.  The Articles of Confederation were written in 1777 and they were designed to manage a war.  Our current constitution was not signed until September 17, 1787 and the government it created did not start to function until March 4, 1789.  It took us 4 years to develop a working form of government and even after agreeing on the constitution it took another year and a half to hold elections and have that government take power.

President Obama wants Egypt to form a new government tomorrow.  He wants the transition to start now.  He apparently believes that speed is the essential ingredient in the transition to democracy.  The only question is whether he is ignorant of our own history or he just chooses to ignore it?

TDM