Watching the Egyptian people celebrate is like watching the ultimate party.  But, following every party there has to be a morning after.  Egypt is probably going to experience a gigantic hangover.  For those who are celebrating the resignation of Hosni Mubarak from Egypt, I attach the following news article regarding the departure of the Shah of Iran.  This was published on January 16, 1979.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1979/jan/16/iran.martinwoollacott

The idea appears to be to confront Ayatollah Khomeini with a choice between dealing with the moderates or facing military intervention and massive repression. The situation itself suggests that such a coup might be attempted if the Ayatollah goes for a takeover.

No was predicting that the Ayatollah Khomeini would take over in Iran.  Instead, they felt that if he “tried” to take over there would be a military coup and even more repression.  The “experts” expected the Ayatollah Khomeini to moderate.  But moderation is not in the Muslim extremist dictionary.  As we all know, those predictions were very wrong.  Within a very short period of time the Muslim extremists took over.   

There is one big difference between the situation in Iran and that in Egypt.  In this case what really happened was a military coup.   In Iran, there was a coalition government.   The protestors are celebrating a major victory, because they successfully forced Mubarak out.  But, he was not exactly replaced with a coalition government.  Instead the military took direct control, which means the Egyptian constitution is no longer in effect.   

This could go in one of two directions quite quickly.  The military may decide that they have learned from Iran, and they may move in boldly to re-establish control.  They would allow the people to celebrate, tell them they have won, and get them to go home.  Then, quietly when the cameras are turned off, they would re-take control.  It would not be surprising for them to clamp down hard on the Muslim Brotherhood and anyone else they consider to be a threat.  If this happens, the military government may be even more repressive than now.  Suleiman will probably be the public face of the new government.  But, if things don’t calm down, the military will probably put someone else in place.  The military, not the constitutional government, now runs Egypt.

The protests may also be far from over.  There does not appear to be any leader that the people are willing to accept.  The protests appear to be focused on getting Mubarak to go.  Ok, he’s gone.  What now?  Do they go home and celebrate victory?  Or do just keep upping the ante?  The only leaders available seem to be connected with the Muslim Brotherhood.  Fortunately, so far, most of the protestors do not appear to be very interested in turning Egypt over to the Muslim Brotherhood.  That means is there is no leader.  Since there is no leader, this could literally head off in almost any direction. 

The people in Egypt are feeling great, but unfortunately, not necessarily thinking great.  It is precisely at these times that tyrants often seize opportunity.  The Muslim Brotherhood will try to slip their guy in, probably disguised as a moderate.  The military will try to retain control.  Both the Muslim Brotherhood and the military will lie about their true intentions.  One will never be satisfied with anything less than a true Islamic state.  The other is unlikely to willingly turn over control to democratic civilian rule.

We could get lucky.  There could be a moderate Egyptian General that is both capable of taking over and willing to facilitate true democracy.   But, such people are very rare.  One tyrant is often exchanged for another.  South Africa was blessed with Nelson Mandela.  However, most countries are not nearly that fortunate.    

The Obama administration continues to be clueless.  The daily, if not hourly, flip flops on this situation have made them look foolish.  In addition Capper, our head of intelligence, said that he considers the Muslim Brotherhood to be a “secular organization.”  That is absurd.  If the Obama administration really believes that, they are hopelessly naïve.  It is, after all the “MUSLIM Brotherood.”  One would think that would provide an important clue.    

Regardless of what happens in Egypt, the overthrow of Mubarak means that these protests will spread throughout the Middle East.  They are also likely to spread to places like Iran and China.  The fuse has been lit.   Much of the world is on fire and it is far from being controlled.  We do not know how far or how fast it will spread, but we do know that it won’t stop in Egypt.  U.S. insurance carriers that specialize in global risk are strongly warning U.S. companies to prepare for worst case scenarios with regard to evacuating personnel.  We seldom realize our greatest hopes or our worst fears.  In Egypt we are likely to get one or the other.  Because of the speed at which this is moving, the lack of leadership in Egypt and the incompetence of the Obama administration, a bad result seems more likely than not.

Obama was just on TV, celebrating the party.  I wonder if he will be as thrilled about the coming hangover.

TDM