The Iowa caucuses are next week. History teaches us that the Iowa Caucuses are hard to predict. It is even harder to predict if the results will even matter. For example, in 2020 Bernie Sanders was leading Pete Buttigieg by a narrow margin. Ultimately, Buttigieg was declared the winner and Joe Biden was basically tied for the bottom with about 10 percent of the vote. Obviously, the results in Iowa didn’t matter very much regarding the Democratic race.

In 2016 Donald Trump was leading in all the polls prior to caucus night, but it was Ted Cruz who actually won. This is one reason Trump is currently campaigning like mad in Iowa. This time everyone is predicting Trump will win, bigly. What really matters is who comes in second and by what margin. If Ron DeSantis comes in third, he may be finished. But if he finishes in a strong second place that changes everything.

Nikki Haley will probably win in New Hampshire, but it probably won’t matter. Part of the reason is that New Hampshire no longer represents the rest of the country very well. It has two liberal Democratic Senators and a retiring RINO Republican Governor, John Sununu. Then the DNC openly told Democrats that the Democratic Primary didn’t matter, so please vote for Nikki Haley. Obviously, Democrats consider Haley to be the perfect RINO Republican. Someone who could beat Trump, someone who is extremely likely to lose in November, and someone who, if elected, is guaranteed to compromise with Democrats.

I make no predictions other that to note the obvious. In Iowa the Caucuses are not run by the state, they are run by the Republican Party. The Republican Party in Iowa is a strong supporter of Governor Kim Reynolds. Kim Reynolds is a strong supporter of Ron DeSantis. In Iowa you must show up to vote, in person, and on time. A representative of the candidate gets to speak, then and only then is a vote taken. When Ron DeSantis talks about his ground game in Iowa, this is what that means. That is one reason polls can be really wrong.

Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting votes. In 2020 it took days before Democrats could even figure out who won. Of course, no one would suspect any problem with all mail-in voting, right?

Winning Iowa does not mean you automatically win the nomination. But if you lose in Iowa, than can really matter. Perhaps I am wrong, but I wouldn’t be surprised in Nikki Haley has a problem in Iowa. It doesn’t help if Republicans in Iowa learn that Democrats are openly supporting Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire Republican primary. In Iowa, they can’t do that.

There have been predictions that DeSantis will drop out if he doesn’t win the Iowa primary. But those rumors probably come from the Trump campaign. One thing is certain, if he doesn’t start showing up as a serious competitor then Trump will just coast to the nomination.

Democrats are clearly in panic mode. They know Joe Biden is heading not only for defeat, but for a monumental thumping. They also know that Kamala Harris would probably do even worse. If nothing changes, Trump not only wins, but he also wins bigly. I don’t know what they will do. I don’t even know if there are any realistic options available. I just know they are willing to do anything, and I do mean anything, to defeat Donald Trump.

Normally I call the time period after the Superbowl and before Baseball opening day the winter doldrums. Other than during March madness, there are few sporting events capable of providing a distraction from politics. We may be forced to pay attention to some of this nonsense, if for no other reason than to reduce the amount of boredom.

In the meantime, our enemies know two things. One is that Joe Biden is the weakest President they have ever encountered and are likely to encounter in the future. While the MSM may be pretending he’s doing great, they know better, and they just may view the next nine months as a “window of opportunity.” I am reminded that when FDR ordered an oil embargo against Japan, they knew if they did not go to war with the U.S. within a short period of time, they would never be able to go to war in the future because they simply would not have enough fuel. That was a primary factor in the decision to authorize the raid on Pearl Harbor. Desperate people do desperate things, and these are desperate times.

TDM