Every single Democratic consultant is now predicting that Republicans will regain control of the House.  The low estimate is that Republicans will gain a minimum of 50 seats and even some Democrats are expecting up to 70 seats.

That is the bad news.  The good news is that these outcomes assume high Democratic turnout.  If Democrats have a bad evening, say a repeat of the Scott Brown election, then it could be much worse.  Almost every consultant admits that if they are wrong, it is because Republican gains will be even larger. 

If the Republicans have a very good night, but not a GREAT night, they could end up with 268 seats.  That would be a 90 seat swing.  But, if they have a great night, it could be even worse.  Here are the numbers that really count.

Safe Democratic seats:   121                 Safe Republican seats:  163

Everything else could possibly change, but right now Republicans are ahead in 51 other races.  That would result in the Republicans having 224 seats, or a majority, without winning ANY tossup seats.

There are currently 44 tossup seats and with the obvious Republican surge, the Republicans could pick up a high percentage of them.  Obviously if they got all the tossups, that would be a gain of 95 seats.  In addition, there are another 22 Democrat seats where the Democrat is only slightly ahead and another 24 where the Democrat is ahead by a slightly higher margin, but not enough to make the seat safe.  That means another 46 Democratic seats have at least some risk.  Incredibly while the Republicans are already expected to easily pick up 46 seats, another 90 Democratic seats are at least somewhat competitive and 44 of them are extremely competitive.   Wow!

In the last two weeks, virtually every close race has swung to the Republicans.  There are only two congressional seats where Democrats have improved.   There are 40 where Republicans have improved. 

If you combine this with the 15 point Gallup lead by Republicans on the generic ballot, this may soon be called Ruby Tuesday.

The Senate is far from a sure thing, but as of now if the Republicans win West Virginia, Washington or California, they probably win the Senate. 

The only real question is not whether the political storm will hit, but rather the extent of the Damage to the Democratic Party.

Here are safe predictions:

1.  Nancy Pelosi is finished as Speaker of the House and she will probably resign from congress before the start of the next congress rather than continue in the minority.
2. Republicans will definitely win enough seats in the Senate to effectively block any legislation that does not receive broad Republican support.  Republicans will control all legislation in the House.
3. There will be investigations of key Democrats that have been ignored for over 4 years.  Some of those investigations will be devastating.
4. There will be significant investigations regarding Obama.  If early investigations turn up any smoking guns, these could escalate rapidly.  Never under estimate the power of the subpoena.

There will be an immediate fight regarding the extension of the Bush Tax cuts.  Obama will try to force Republicans to pass legislation excluding the top brackets and only for a limited period of time.  He is likely to veto any attempt to extend tax credits for the top tax brackets.

Republicans will push to pass tax cuts for everyone and for a longer period of time.  Whoever is viewed as obstructionist will pay a huge political price.  If Obama can convince people that he is willing to compromise, but Republicans insist on giving tax cuts to the rich, he may literally save his Presidency.  On the other hand it is precisely those tax brackets that are likely to drive any recovery.   In addition, there are more and more Democrats who honestly believe that extending the tax cuts for everyone is necessary.  Even the biased main stream media is moving in that direction.

This will be an immediate battle shortly after the election.  That is the dilemma for Obama and Democrats.   If they don’t extend the tax cuts during a lame duck session, every American is going to get hit with a huge tax increase on January 1.  That is going to make just about everyone angry.   Republicans will probably be able to prevent Democrats from even voting on legislation that extends the tax cuts without including the top brackets.  Democrats couldn’t get that done before the election, which is why Pelosi didn’t allow a vote.   My guess is that one of two things will happen.  Either the lame duck congress will adjourn without extending the Bush tax cuts, which will create even more problems for Democrats, or they will vote to extend all the Bush tax cuts.  If Obama vetoes that, and he is unsuccessful in blaming it on Republicans, he will be making a major mistake. 

Remember that Pelosi will have been humiliated by a crushing defeat and Harry Reid is likely to have been voted out of office.  I doubt that the Democrats who just got voted out of office because of the Obama, Pelosi, Reid incompetence will be very enthusiastic about following them further over the cliff.  Regardless of final outcome on Tuesday, the American people have already sent a loud and clear message. 

If Obama is smart, he will “reluctantly” sign the extension of the Bush Tax Cuts and then tries to claim credit for the recovery.  However, at this point, he shows no signs of doing the smart thing.  Instead he is promising to fight harder.  It is going to be a very interesting November and December.    

TDM