Barack Obama made a major stop in Delaware yesterday. So did Joe Biden. According to the main stream media Coons has an insurmountable lead over O’Donnell. The polls are so bad that Karl Rove couldn’t even bring himself to say he thought she had a chance to win when pressed by O’Reilly. Yet, Democrats are obviously worried. There may be good reason for them to be concerned. I looked at the internals of the latest poll showing that Coons up by 10 points. That result, like most other polls, depends on voter turnout being similar to 2008. That assumes that 43% of voters will be Democrats, 31% will be Republicans and 26% will be Independents. If you use that turnout model then the poll which has 85% of Democrats voting for Coons and 79% of Republicans voting for O’Donnell produces a 10% win. But, that turnout is very unlikely in this election cycle. At a minimum, Republican turnout is probably going to be much higher than it was in 2008 and Democratic turnout much lower. In addition this poll showed Independents supporting O’Donnell by a significant margin. If more Republicans and Independents vote than Democrats, this could be a very close race.
It is hard for anyone, including me, to predict O’Donnell winning in a red state like Delaware. That is doubly true because she has been crucified in the main stream media and has become a nationwide laughingstock. But a couple of recent developments give me pause. It is clear from all the polls that O’Donnell is surging. It also seems like Coons made a huge mistake. His campaign paid to have someone make up a clearly false sex scandal about O’Donnell. That made a lot of women, including liberal women, absolutely furious. It was beyond despicable. It was also really stupid. Democrats have always enjoyed a huge advantage with Women voters. Coon’s has risked losing that advantage with this bizarre stunt. I still wouldn’t bet on O’Donnell pulling this off, but I also wouldn’t be shocked if she won.
The latest news is that even Nat Silver from the NYT is admitting that Republicans are going to do a lot better than he expected. He not only expects people like Harry Reid to lose, he wouldn’t be surprised to seem them lose by big margins. His article appears to be more of a post mortem than a prediction. This is astonishing, because Silver has historically over estimated Democratic results, particularly during this election cycle:
What’s interesting is that Silver, like all liberals, is incapable of understanding that this election is a rejection of liberal policies. He has five reasons why Democrats are “likely to lose.”
1. Downballot races. Republican candidates at the local level are doing very well and that will impact the top of the ticket races. This is sort of the reverse shirt tails argument.
2. Unlikely Voters. People voted who weren’t expected to vote turned out for this election.
3. The Incumbent Rule. When things are going badly, incumbents lose.
4. The Scott Brown effect. Republicans are energized because for the first time in a long time they think their vote may actually count.
5. Bad Voter Turnout Models. The Democratic turnouts in 2006 and 2008 were unusually high and are unlikely to be repeated.
Some of these arguments have merit, but like most liberals, Silver just doesn’t get it. This election is mostly about people who are furious at both parties for their tax, tax, tax and spend, spend, and spend agendas. Democrats are in trouble because they are in control and they are getting the lion’s share of the blame. But, Republicans have also been much quicker to adopt to the tea party movement. They are far more likely to understand why people are peeved and they are at least pretending to listen. In addition, thanks to the tea party, there are some very conservative candidates running as Republicans who appear ready, willing and able to stand up to the Republican establishment. These are not your grandfather’s Republicans.
There is one other factor that may prove to be very significant. In previous elections Democrats won because of overwhelming union support. That is not working as well this year. The Supreme Court rejected parts of McCain Feingold and business organizations, like the Chamber of Commerce, have taken advantage of this. This has leveled the playing field significantly compared to previous elections where unions often spent millions buying elections.
In addition, in this economy, public sector employees are no longer viewed as favorably. It has become more and more obvious that a lot of public sector employee are enjoying a much better lifestyle than the rest of us and they are doing it with our tax dollars. In other words there is a significant public sector union backlash building.
So what did Dela Wear Boys. She wore a New Jersey and with a little luck it could even turn out to be red.
TDM
This all sounds good for everywhere but california .We still live in the silly and now stupid state.
And in the once Great Golden State of California we will likely “Go Back To The Future” with a one party rule by electing Jerry Brown.
One party rule that will result in a socialist style state controlled healthcare plan that will be the envy of any European Socialist Democracy. The liberals passed it two years ago and Arnold vetoed it.
So all they have to do is dust off the very same bill and ole Jerry will gladly join his liberal union buddies in our march off the cliff into the Pacific Ocean.