It is increasingly clear that a revolution will take place on November 2, 2010.  At first, I was hoping for the Republicans to win back the House.  Then I was hoping they would win back control of the Senate.  Both of those events are now very likely with the takeover of the House almost certain.  The White House is shock.

http://www.commentarymagazine.com/blogs/index.php/wehner/338666

I have been checking the polls and unless they are totally wrong things are even worse than is being reported.   Here is the latest on the House races from Real Clear Poliitics:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/house/2010_elections_house_map.html

But this is extremely misleading.    The problem with this analysis is that there are no longer 148 “safe” Democratic seats.  That analysis was based on prior records of incumbent Democrats winning re-election, not based on current polling data.  Democrats are behind in about 48 of those “safe” districts.

What this means is that there are between 80 and 100 seats where Democrats probably win regardless of national trends.  These are districts where there is a minority Democratic congressional representative in a highly ethnic district.  Those people are extremely unlikely to lose.  (Think Maxime Waters) There are also some representatives from very liberal non-ethnic districts which will also likely continue to be Democratic.  (Think Nancy Pelosi)  But the rest of them are definitely in play and right now the Democrats are trailing everywhere!

We could, and I emphasize the word “could” see the Republicans end up with more than 300 seats in the House. 

Following is the latest from the Senate:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/2010_elections_senate_map.html

The odds are looking better that Republicans retake control of the Senate.   The bottom line is that only 37 Senators are up for re-election.  Of that number, 19 are Democrats and 18 are Republicans.  Most of the projections that have Democrats retaining control of the Senate require Barbara Boxer winning re-election in California.  If she loses in California, it will be very hard for Democrats to retain control of the Senate.

Here is the shocking news.  There are NO safe Senate seats this year.

Bayh, Evan – (D – IN) Class III 131 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5623 Web Form: bayh.senate.gov/contact/email/

Bennet, Michael F. – (D – CO) Class III 702 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5852 Web Form: bennet.senate.gov/contact/

Boxer, Barbara – (D – CA) Class III 112 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3553 Web Form: boxer.senate.gov/contact/email/policy.cfm

Burris, Roland W. – (D – IL) Class III 387 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2854 Web Form: burris.senate.gov/contact/contact.cfm

Dodd, Christopher J. – (D – CT) Class III 448 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2823 Web Form: dodd.senate.gov/index.php?q=node/3130

Dorgan, Byron L. – (D – ND) Class III 322 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2551 Web Form: dorgan.senate.gov/contact/contact_form.cfm

Feingold, Russell D. – (D – WI) Class III 506 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5323 Web Form: feingold.senate.gov/contact_opinion.html

Inouye, Daniel K. – (D – HI) Class III 722 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3934 Web Form: inouye.senate.gov/Contact/Email-Form.cfm

Leahy, Patrick J. – (D – VT) Class III 433 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4242 Web Form: leahy.senate.gov/contact.cfm

Lincoln, Blanche L. – (D – AR) Class III 355 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4843 Web Form: lincoln.senate.gov/contact/email.cfm

Mikulski, Barbara A. – (D – MD) Class III 503 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4654 Web Form: mikulski.senate.gov/Contact/contact.cfm

Murray, Patty – (D – WA) Class III 173 RUSSELL SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-2621 Web Form: murray.senate.gov/email/index.cfm

Reid, Harry – (D – NV) Class III 522 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-3542 Web Form: reid.senate.gov/contact/index.cfm

Schumer, Charles E. – (D – NY) Class III 313 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-6542 Web Form: schumer.senate.gov/new_website/contact.cfm

Specter, Arlen – (D – PA) Class III 711 HART SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-4254 specter.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contact.Co…

Wyden, Ron – (D – OR) Class III 223 DIRKSEN SENATE OFFICE BUILDING WASHINGTON DC 20510 (202) 224-5244 Web Form: wyden.senate.gov/contact/

Here is the list of Democrats up for re-election in 2010:

 Even now Democrats are “expecting” to lose 8 Senate seats.  This is the projection by the die-hard optimists.  It is possible that the Democrats will lose every current seat, because there is a nationwide throw the bums out attitude.  Just look at the above list.  None of these people are guaranteed re-election.  The Republicans would have to win every Republican seat and 17 Democratic seats to get a 60 vote majority.  While that is far from predictable, it is not outside the realm of possibility.

Finally, recall that 2010 is a census year.  That means that Republicans would be in charge of making redistricting decisions.  This election could literally remove Democrats from power for an entire generation.

The odds increase daily, primarily because of the continued arrogance and incompetence of this administration.  The Spanish Fly venture by Michelle Obama was a huge mistake that will cost Democrats big time this fall.  Unless sometime big happens soon, this is going to be a wild ride.

(Democrats are beyond desperate:  Re-read Wag the Donkey.  Remember there is nothing more dangerous than a cornered animal.  No party in recent history has been more cornered than the Democratic Party this year.)

TDM