Normally, the shortest route to the truth is to just assume the exact opposite of anything said by Ahmadinejad.  But, this time, I think he is right.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100727/wl_nm/us_iran_ahmadinejad_attack 

Predictions are always risky, but I will make one.  I believe that Barrack Obama will seriously consider ordering an attack on Iran, by combined U.S. and Israeli forces on or about October 29, 2010.  Then there will be a public announcement and a call to national unity, with Obama surrounded by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  The, not so subliminal, message will be that it would be unthinkable for a change of leadership during such a major crisis.

There is precedence for Democrats making these types of decisions to solve political problems.   LBJ ordered the unilateral cessation of bombing over North Vietnam on October 31, 1968.  At that time it was becoming obvious that the North Vietnamese were on the ropes and ready to quit.  I believe that LBJ did this as a last ditch desperate effort to get Hubert Humphrey elected President.   

Bill Clinton did this twice.  First, when he ordered a 4 day bombing campaign against Iraq on December 14, 1998, just before the start of his impeachment hearing in the House.  Predictably some Democratic supporters even suggested “postponing or cancelling the hearing” because of the national emergency.  There was nothing unique about December 1998, with regard to Iraq, other than Clinton’s political problems.  The timing of this attack was very convenient for Clinton.  I still remember when even Ted Koppel noticed the convenience of the timing, but said he would not ask any further questions because that would be “unthinkable.”

Second, after Clinton was acquitted in February, he launched the air attack on Serbia in March of 1999.  Regardless of what anyone thinks about who is right or wrong in the Balkans, no one has ever made a case that this was a threat to our national security.  Milosevic was a lot of things, but a threat to the U.S. was not on the list.   Clinton never even tried to get UN approval and he also did not bother discussing this with congress.  The “war” in the Balkans was another convenient distraction for a wounded President.

Obama faces a complete political disaster in November.  If something doesn’t happen, Republicans will definitely take over the House and may take over the Senate.  Obama knows that if this happens, he will immediately become a weakened lame duck President.  He may also literally fear being impeached.   Desperate times call for desperate measures.   The economy sucks.  Health Care reform is a disaster.  The stimulus is not working.  The financial reform bill isn’t working either.  Obama MUST do SOMETHING.  Nothing is working out domestically, so what about overseas?   But what are the options?  Afghanistan?…no…not going that well.  North Korea?  no…they already have a nuclear weapon.  Hmm.  Iran.  “That’s it, Iran.  Everyone hates Iran.  Even the Republicans will have to back me if I attack Iran!”   Therefore, I predict that the Obama administration is seriously considering an attack on Iran.  Just imagine, it’s easy if you try.  On the eve of the election President Obama will go on national television to announce an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and call for national unity during this time of crisis.  He will give the speech from the White House, surrounded by Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi.  They may even sing God Bless America again.  I feel warm and fuzzy all over

I recall when Richard Little did an impression of LBJ after his famous speech where he announced he would not run for re-election.  LBJ (Little) said:  “I come here tonight, because I have no place else to go.”   Exactly. 

TDM