Ted Cruz questioned whether or not Donald Trump’s tax returns could show a strong connection with the mob.  Trump is supported by the mob, but not necessarily the mob Cruz was talking about.

The big surprise last night was that Ted Cruz came from way behind in the polls to win Oklahoma.  Prior to the election the polls were averaging Trump 32.7, Rubio 21.3, Cruz 20.3, Carson 7.3, and Kasich 6.3.  Donald Trump was averaging 11.7 over Rubio who consistently came in second.  But Cruz won and he won big.  Final results were Cruz 34.4, Trump 28.3, Rubio 26.0, Carson 6.2, and Kasich 3.6.  I tried to figure out why the results were so different in Oklahoma.  I found it in the following article in the Weekly Standard:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/five-reasons-trump-is-weaker-than-he-looks/article/2001354

Oklahoma was the ONLY state last night that had a closed primary where only Republicans could vote.  This means that Donald Trump is not necessarily winning with Republicans; he may be winning because a lot of Democrats and Independents are crossing over and voting in the Republican Primary.

So I did some research to see how that plays out in the future:

Following are open Primary States:  Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Where did Trump win last night?  He won in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Tennessee, Vermont, Virginia and Massachusetts.  ALL except Massachusetts were open primary states.  The pattern is obvious.

The remaining open primary states are Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, and Ohio.

There are 17 closed primary states:  They are Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wyoming.

All the rest are a combination of above.  But, the biggest prize of all is California.  Here in California if you are registered as a Republican, you get a Republican ballot.  If you are registered as a Democrat you get a Democratic ballot.  If you are registered as an Independent you get a ballot listing all the “non-partisan” contenders.  I remember when I first came here I registered as an independent.  I was shocked when I got a ridiculous non-partisan ballot during the primary election.  I then registered as a Republican because I sure wasn’t going to register as a Democrat.

When the Republican electorate is split, as it is now, we can and will have our nominee chosen by a mob of people we may not even recognize.  That goes a long way toward explaining why Trump is winning.  It also provides further evidence of the stupidity of the Republican establishment.  But, it just may mean that the future for Donald Trump is not quite as obvious as it appears to some.

TDM