Nevada only matters to people who think Nevada matters.  Trump did get 45% of the vote last night, but only a little over 75,000 people bothered to vote.  Both Trump and Rubio won because of Clark County, which means Las Vega.  Trump won by 17,000 vote state wide, half of them came from Clark County.  The entire margin between Rubio and Cruz came from Clark County.  If they had tied there, Cruz rather than Rubio would have come in second.  So instead of saying that Trump won big in Nevada it would be more accurate to say he ran the table in Vegas.

The Republican establishment is rushing to endorse Rubio, which is hurting Cruz but not necessarily helping Rubio enough to take on Trump.  It probably helps Trump more than anything, because Rubio is a far less dangerous opponent for him than Cruz.  Rubio is running on a campaign that he is most electable because he will bring more people into the party.  That is the same theory that resulted in the losses by John McCain and Mitt Romney.  Every poll in Nevada showed that people are angry and they want to vote for an angry man.  The Republican Establishment has already lost this election.  The only question is how long before they are ready, willing and able to admit that.

I don’t think Rubio has a path to the nomination.  I don’t think Rubio can ever beat Trump.  Cruz, on the other hand, still have a path, but some things have to happen.  He has to stop Rubio or Trump easily wins this.  He can win a two man race, but Trump will win a three man race.  The good news for him is that Rubio is very vulnerable.  His performance on O’Reilly was really bad.  Rubio simply cannot handle being pressured on immigration. In addition there is a breaking story where an ICE official is challenging Rubio.  This is a Swift Boat type campaign.  Rubio tried to dismiss this guy off hand and that may backfire.  The allegation is that Rubio was unwilling to give ICE authority to stop illegal immigration. This could really hurt Rubio.  The Town Hall and the debate this week could be interesting.

Cruz also needs to take on the liar allegations and turn them around.  He certainly has the skill and the ammunition to do that.  To put it bluntly, both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio live in glass houses on this subject.

While some have talked about a brokered convention, no one has noticed that the California Primary is still looming out there is the Fog.  Remember that Robert Kennedy was way behind in 1968 until he won the California Primary.  If he had not been assassinated he probably would have won the Democratic nomination.  California is a winner take all state where only Republicans can vote.  Cruz is leading in the polls in California.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz is doing some California Dreaming.

TDM