What many people do not realize is that when they went to vote on November 4, 2008, Barack Obama was already on his way to election.  He was ahead by a massive 55% to 40% margin among the early voters.  John McCain was pretty much toast before the first vote was even cast on Election Day.

Republicans were caught by surprise in 2008, but they weren’t caught by surprise this time.  Every report, from both the left and the right, shows that Republicans have increased substantially in early voting and Democrats have slipped.  Gallup even has Romney ahead in early voting:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/10/29/Gallup-Shock-Romney-Up-7-with-early-voters

Ben Franklin once said that two things were certain:  death and taxes.  It is also certain thing that supporters of both sides prior to an election will always say they think their candidate is going to win.  No matter how bad the internal polls look, all campaigns put on the happy face at this stage of the election.

Ultimately, it is down to this:  If Republicans turnout like they did in 2004 and 2010, then Romney wins and by a big margin.  If Democrats turn out like they did in 2008, then Obama may win, but it will be a razor thin margin.

Is it possible that Democratic turnout will be that dramatic?  Yes, it is possible, but unlikely.  2008 was a perfect storm for Republicans and this was the highest Democratic turnout EVER!

Is there any evidence to support that kind of turnout this time?  No.  If anything Romney is the one drawing massive crowds and Obama is the one playing to half empty rooms.  Democrats are obviously hoping for this kind of turnout.

Is either campaign showing signs of panic:?   Yes, Bill Clinton is making four campaign stops in Pennsylvania.  Pennsylvania is a state that wasn’t even on the radar a couple of weeks ago.   If Obama loses in Pennsylvania, a state he considered safe, he is in deep trouble.  Sending Bill Clinton into Pennsylvania the day before an election is evidence of pure panic.

Candidates who think they are losing tend to become angry.  Obama is becoming sullen and angry.  That is the real story with the “revenge” remark.  Mitt Romney, on the other hand, looks very calm and extremely confident.

But what about all those polls showing a toss-up?  As far as I can tell, every poll shows Romney winning among independents.  Every poll also shows about 95% of Democrats voting for Obama and 95% of Republicans voting for Romney.  This means that all of the polls are being adjusted to reflect an anticipated high turnout by Democrats.  If Democrats do turn out by a 6 to 8 point margin, then Obama may win a close election.  If the turnout is roughly equal, than Romney wins by a comfortable margin.  If Republican turnout is higher than Democratic turnout this will be a landslide.

I have been watching elections for many years and I have learned to always pay attention to Michael Barone.  He not only studies polls and turnout, he knows this down to the county level.  I can’t begin to recall the number of times when an election appeared to be trending in one direction or another and Michael Barone predicted the final outcome based on his analysis of a particular county.  I have never known him to get it wrong.   Barone is flat out predicting a Romney landslide because he says the fundamentals are all tilting toward Romney.

How could Barone be wrong?   I think the only way he is wrong is if there was a major swing in the election because of Obama’s sterling performance with regard to Hurricane Sandy.  Obama did get the chance for some nice photo shots, wearing his Commander in Chief gear and he benefited greatly from the “bromance” with Chris Christie.  Obama would hardly be the first political leader who benefited significantly from showing leadership during a crisis.  In other countries, losing campaigns have turned into landslide victories.  But in this case Obama left town and went back campaigning.  In the meantime Hurricane Sandy is turning into a real mess, with millions of people without food, without water, without gas and without any sign of FEMA.  The warmth from Obama’s Presidential moment has begun to fade.  This may even turn into a backlash, if people blame him for the FEMA disappearing act.  For example, take a look at the following video:

http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/video-sandy-victims-beg-help_660345.html

Finally: the wild card.  The Libya narrative has literally collapsed.  While the television networks and the cable news networks are focusing on Hurricane Sandy, the newspapers are reporting on Libya.  In addition, the internet is literally on fire.  Today an ad is being released by 500 former Admirals and Generals endorsing Romney and slamming Obama.  They paid for it themselves.

Summary:   I believe the Gallup running average of Romney 52% to Obama 46% remains accurate.  The most recent Gallup polls almost certainly overstate Obama, because they represent a running 7 day average.  That means a lot of this data is from the glow days following the Hurricane.  But even if Gallup is right and it is 48% to 48% then Romney probably wins 51% to 48%.   Today Pew has it Obama 48% and Romney 46%, but it also has Democrats plus six.  That means the real number is probably Romney 49% and Obama 45%.   Pretty consistent with where Gallup has been for quite a white.

I think they are all wrong.  I don’t think Democratic turnout will be even close to what it was in 2008.  I think that Republican turnout will be at a record level.  I have several reasons for believing this:

1.  The early voting shows exactly this trend.
2. Democratic voter registration is down in every state.
3. Early voting is way down in key Democratic counties.
4. Republic Registration is up in 47 states.  The only exceptions are Georgia, Alabama and Mississippi, where Republicans remain very strong.
5. Evangelical Christians are fully motivated.  They will show up in mass to vote Obama out of office.  This will be another Chick fil-A moment.  Evangelical Christians do not talk to the media because they despise the media.  In 2008, 10 million Evangelical Christians did not vote.  They won’t make that mistake in 2012.
6. Romney saved up his cash and he is running massive media campaigns which Obama cannot match.  In 2008, Obama outspent McCain 10 to 1.
7. The Tea Party has 41 million members.  They are beyond motivated.  The Tea Party is a true grass roots political movement and they will turn out their vote.
8. The internet is on fire telling conservatives this is the last chance to save the country.  A lot of people believe them.
9. Romney is drawing record crowds, Obama is not.
10. Senior citizens used to vote overwhelming for Democrats, because of Medicare.  Democrats thought they could attack Paul Ryan and play the Mediscare card one last time.  It didn’t work.  Romney an Ryan are doing very well among seniors.
11. Recent polls show Romney competitive in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Pennsylvania.  None of these States voted for George Bush.  No one considered these states to be toss-ups just a few weeks ago, they were all either lean Obama or safe Obama.
12. Early voting, when combinded with no Voter ID, is a recipe for voter fraud.  While the main stream media ignored the problem, the Republican party did not.  That is why there are voter ID laws in a lot of states and why early voting has been reduced significantly.  In addition, all those states with a Republican Secretary of State are purging voter rolls and there is an army of volunteers watching for voter fraud.  It is just a lot harder to steal votes this year and that will have more of an impact on this election than anyone can imagine.

I believe that tomorrow night we will be introduced to President elect Mitt Romney.  I also think he is going to win by a margin that is beyond shocking.  He is very likely to bring the U.S. Senate with him.  But this will not be a landslide victory for Mitt Romney; this will be a landslide repudiation of Barack Obama.  It will also be a repudiation of the liberal left and the biased main stream media.  It won’t be perfect, but this will be the final curtain for the liberal left, at least for the current generation of the liberal left.

TDM