Last night it looked like Rick Perry was throwing in the towel.  This morning he tweeted about competing in South Carolina.  Apparently  something happened over night to change his mind.  One possibility is that Michelle Bachmann may have contacted the Perry campaign and promised to endorse him.  One reason might be that Bachmann is a solid conservative and she does not believe that Rick Santorum can win.  Another reason might be the realization of what else happened in Iowa, besides Perry coming in a dismal fifth.

 Mitt Romney barely edged out Rick Santorum.  Since Santorum was in the single digits a couple of weeks ago, that is more of an indication of the weakness of Romney than the strength of Santorum.

Newt Gingrich is in serious trouble and is now on a mission from God to destroy Romney.  That probably won’t win the nomination for Gingrich but it certainly has the potential to hurt Romney.

Ron Paul is clearly slipping in the polls.  Iowa was probably his high water mark.

Rick Santorum has had a free ride and we don’t know how he will respond to a negative campaign.  The Romney camp has totally ignored Santorum.  That is about to change.  Every other challenger to Romney has crashed and burned.  Right now Santorum is burning bright.  The question is whether or not he will flame out. 

That leaves us back exactly where we were a week ago.  This is still a strong not-Romney block of the Republican Party and Perry knows that the last man standing has a real shot at the nomination.  More importantly, Perry would not have made this decision without the strong urging of some really bright people who also have a lot of money.  Perry was clearly ready to throw in the towel and someone or something changed his mind.

Perry’s performance in Iowa was pathetic.  There is no getting around that.  But part of the reason is that he has been ignored by the media.  Even Fox News just stopped mentioning him as a candidate.   But Rush Limbaugh told everyone yesterday to not dismiss Rick Perry.  Perhaps Rush contacted Perry and asked him to stay in a little longer.  If you think about it, if Rush Limbaugh starts saying that people ought to take another look at Perry, people will take another look at Perry.  Rush has more influence within conservative circles than anyone else in the country.  It is also significant to note that while Sarah Palin told Bachmann to pack it up, she did not say that to Rick Perry.

I do not know.  Maybe Perry had another brain freeze and is incapable of recognizing the obvious.  Or maybe he is a lot smarter than people think and this is not over.  In any event the ball is now in Rick Santorum’s court.  If he is capable of handling the ball, the Perry campaign will soon be really over.  If not, we are left with a weak Mitt Romney and a vacant not-Romney slot. 

One thing is certain.  Rick Santorum is about to be tested and we will soon learn how well he handles it.

TDM