There were two men hiking in Alaska when they were confronted with an obviously angry Grizzly bear.  One of the men immediately sat down and replaced his hiking boots with tennis shoes.  The other guy laughed at him and said:  “what are you trying to do, out run a grizzly bear?”  The first guy said: “no, I just need to out run you.”

In many ways that describes the situation in Iowa.  Romney will probably win.  Ron Paul and Rick Santorum will probably do ok, but neither can win the nomination.  Michelle Bachmann looks like toast.  That means it is down to Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich.  Rick Perry doesn’t need to beat Romney, Santorum or Paul.  He just needs to beat Newt Gingrich, or at least come very close.  If he comes in behind Bachmann, he will be the one eaten by the Iowa grizzly.  That of course would not spare Bachmann, Paul or Santorum; it would just delay the funeral and probably give the nomination to Romney.

Newt Gingrich still has a long shot at getting the nomination, but the odds are against him.  His poll numbers are dropping faster than Kathy Griffith’s clothes during the CNN’s New Year’s Eve broadcast.  The problem with all those negative ads being run against him in Iowa is that most of them are obviously true.  Gingrich has provided decades of ammunition.

So, the only real issue tomorrow in Iowa is whether or not Perry can outrun the grizzly.

TDM