In 1865 the Army of the Potomac, under the leadership of Ulysses S. Grant was hammering the Army of Northern Virginia lead by Robert E. Lee. Today we all realize that the defeat of Lee’s army and the surrender at Appomattox effectively ended the civil war. But what most people don’t realize is that defeat and surrender was not General Lee’s only option. His army was defeated, but Robert E. Lee could have ordered his army to disperse and set up a sustained guerrilla warfare effort against the Union. Some of his junior officers recommended that exact strategy. It is possible that the civil war could have gone on for decades. It would have been difficult, if not impossible, for the Union to put down such an insurgency. Instead, Robert E. Lee not only surrendered, he openly appealed to confederates to accept defeat.

This is one article Salon magazine got right:

http://www.salon.com/news/politics/war_room/2010/11/21/south_civil_war_lee

This is the real challenge in Libya today. Gaddafi is unlikely to accept defeat and it is far from certain that he will be captured and killed. He has lost control of Libya, but he still has a lot of followers and he may conduct an insurgency that could last a long time. It will be a lot harder to defeat such an effort with NATO warplanes. Even if he is killed or captured, Libya was dominated by the military, which was controlled by Gaddafi. Unlike Egypt, where the military remained in control, no one appears to be capable of controlling Libya. There is little evidence that the rebels have a government capable of re-establishing order. That means all those rebels currently chasing after Gaddafi are very likely to start shooting at each other. In the meantime there are reports of large supplies of mustard gas, hand held surface to air missiles and even radioactive material that could be used to produce dirty bombs. These are all likely to be available to the highest bidder. There are also reports that some of the rebel leaders have direct ties to al Qaeda.

We are very fortunate that Robert E. Lee ultimately chose to surrender and spared our country this disaster. Obviously no one knows what would have happened if he made a different decision, but we do know that the decision he did make was an enormous help in ending the war. I doubt Libya will be that lucky. A lot of people, including conservatives who should know better, are calling this a good result because Gaddafi is out of power and no Americans were killed. I will withhold judgment until we learn who or what replaced him.

TDM