The Iowa caucuses are famous for yielding results that are unexpected by the main stream media.  Traditional polls are often very inaccurate with regard to actual outcome.  In 2012, nine days before the election polls had Newt Gingrich leading, followed by Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul.  Then there was Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.  Rick Santorum was not on anyone’s radar.  He ended up beating Mitt Romney by a very narrow margin.  Gingrich finished a distant fourth.  He never recovered.

Here is what the media does not understand.  Social issues really matter in Iowa.  That is why Santorum won and why the polls were so wrong.  If that happens again, Ted Cruz could score a major victory.  The American Conservative understands this.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/mccarthy/iowas-next-santorum-vote-surprise/

Here is how this author described the Iowa evangelicals:

They are rock steady, not swayed by media buzz or the showbiz glitz of a modern presidential campaign. They are also organized: their churches and religious groups are ready-made battalions that translate directly into political strength.

Elite centrists in the GOP who do indeed recognize the religious right as a separate species from themselves nevertheless tend to perceive the evangelical vote as basically populist rather than distinctly values-driven.

I could add something.  Nothing offends evangelicals more than someone who tries to shine them on.  Donald Trump may have done himself a lot of damage when he quoted from “two” Corinthians.  I doubt that many evangelicals are impressed with his lifestyle of the rich and famous, his three wives and the videos of his extreme liberal positions in the past. He would have been smarter to say that he respects them and he will protect their rights to religion freedom than to pretend to be one of them.

Ted Cruz, on the other hand, is a genuine evangelical and they know it.  While Trump is performing in front of huge crowds, Ted Cruz is meeting private with local pastors.  We may see two very strong undercurrents in play in Iowa.  Neither one is showing up on the main stream media radar.  One undercurrent flowing strongly toward Cruz and one undercurrent flowing strongly against Trump.  If that is true, the results in Iowa may be stunning.

TDM

Donald Trump soared to the top of the polls by having his finger on the pulse of voters.  People are seething with anger at the establishment in both parties.  The anger has been building up for a long time. Voters gave this country a Republican President, a Republican House and a Republican Senate and the results were pretty much business as usual.  Then voters gave the country a Democratic President, a Democratic House and a Democratic Senate.  The results were spectacularly bad.  In 2010 Republicans won back control of the House. Nothing changed.   In 2014 Republicans won back control of the Senate. Nothing changed. The Republican establishment continues to compromise with Democrats, terrified of what it considers to be the extremist views of the conservative movement. The cultured elite views conservative values as delusional and out of touch with reality.

Along came Donald Trump and he ventured where no man dared go before.  He stood up for conservative values without compromise.  He absolutely refused to be intimidated by political correctness.  He said things the establishment in both parties considered to be outrageous.  To the shock and horror of the Republican establishment, the more they attacked Trump the higher he rose in the polls.  The main stream media despises Trump, but they love the ratings they get from covering him.  Trump was probably on his way to winning the nomination and the Presidency.

But something changed overnight.  The Republican establishment suddenly realized this had become a two man race between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  At that point, both the Republican establishment and Donald Trump showed their real colors.  The Republican establishment started to embrace Trump because they realized that they could make a deal with him. The Republican establishment does not like Donald Trump, but they absolutely fear Ted Cruz.

Trump quickly responded by welcoming their support.  It probably seemed like a good idea at the time.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the Forum.  To the shock of both Donald Trump and the Republican establishment; conservatives in this country actually believe in their principles and they decided enough was enough.  They are now in full revolt.

Leading conservatives joined together to speak with one voice to the “base.”  They are warning that Donald Trump is not a true conservative and that if he becomes the next President of the United States he will quickly morph from the “raging defender” to the “master of the deal.” The National Review devoted an entire article to exposing Donald Trump.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/430137/donald-trump-conservative-movement-menace

Trump responded by trashing the National Review.  That was predictable.  But this is much more than a single editorial from an irrelevant magazine.  The list of the conservative voices joining in the warning about Donald Trump is simply astonishing.

Glenn Beck, David Boaz, L. Brent Bozell III, Mona Charen, Ben Domenech, Erick Erickson, Steven F. Hayward, Mark Helprin, William Kristol, Yuyal Levin, Dana Loesch, Andrew C. McCarthy, David McIntosch, Michael Medved, Edwin Meese III, Russell Moore, Michael B. Mukasey, Katie Pavlich, John Podhoretz, R. R. Reno, Thomas Sowell, and Cal Thomas.

When you combine this with Rush Limbaugh commenting on how the Republican establishment has embraced Donald Trump this is nothing short of a seismic event.  If Donald Trump still wins the nomination after this, I believe that there will be a wholesale exodus of conservatives from the Republican Party.  I wouldn’t even rule out a strong third party challenge.

On the other hand, Donald Trump may decide to run his own independent campaign.  He has to be seething with anger about this and Donald does not always respond rationally when he is pissed off.  Almost anything is possible.

This is nothing short of a call for a full scale conservative rebellion.  We will soon learn just how much influence these people really have.  I suspect it is much stronger than anyone in the Republican establishment or the main stream media realizes.

As for me, I think it is about time. I am sick and tired of the Republican establishment.  In 1952 the Pittsburgh Pirates lost 112 games.  General Manager Branch Rickey told his star player Ralph Kiner he would have to take a pay cut.  When Kiner complained, Rickey said the following:

“We could have finished last without you.”

Exactly.  What is the point of electing Republican establishment politicians if nothing ever changes? In addition, Republican establishment candidates are famous for losing elections they should have won.  We can get similar results without them.

Revelation 3:16

“So, because you are lukewarm–neither hot nor cold–I am about to spit you out of my mouth.”

TDM

The Republican establishment has gone all in on Donald Trump.  If you believe the pundits on Fox News, this basically paves the way for Trump to win the nomination.  They could be right about that, but perhaps they are missing something really big.  The primary appeal of Donald Trump is that people view him as someone who will fight for them.  He is the ultimate anti-establishment candidate.  When the Republican base was trashing Trump, it just elevated him in the eyes of people who are furious with the inept Republican establishment.  Now that the Republican establishment has embraced him and welcomed him to the club, that may change.  Ironcially, by hating Trump, the establishment helped him.  Now by loving him they are likely to hurt him.  A classical example of the Republican establishments incedible arrogance and ignorance.

On the other hand, the Republican establishment has openly admitted that Ted Cruz will not cut deals with them.  That is why they hate him.  It is also why we hate them.  Glenn Beck is already campaigning with Ted Cruz.  This morning Rush Limbaugh painted Donald Trump with the establishment brush.  A lot of people listen to these guys.  This has the potential to spread like wildfire in conservative’s hearts all over the country.  LBJ once said that if he had lost Walter Cronkite, he had lost the country.  He had certainly lost the Democratic base.  Trump may soon realize that if he lost Limbaugh and Beck, he has lost the Republican base.

Ted Cruz may also benefit from the most important endorsement of all.  Bob Dole said that Ted Cruz was the worst possible choice for the Republican establishment.  Dole fears that Cruz would lose in a general election.  No one has more expertise in losing an election they should have won than Bob Dole.  Bill Clinton was in serious trouble running for re-election in 1996.  The only thing that saved him was the idiotic decision of the Republican establishment to run Bob Dole.  Remember all the brilliant things Bob Dole said over the last twenty years?  Me neither.

TDM

While the Obama administration is busy gloating about the Iran nuclear deal, the reality is all too real.  Incredibly the worst part of this deal is not that we just paved the road to a nuclear weapon for Iran.  At best this only delayed Iran getting a nuclear weapon or ten years. That is really bad, but it won’t take ten years to realize the stupidity of this deal.

We are also literally funding our worst enemy.  Obama authorized paying Iran $1.7 billion.  This is for alleged damages caused by the U.S. dating back to 1979.  He also authorized eliminating sanctions and freeing up billions in Iranian assets.  But even that is not the worst part of this deal.

The Obama administration has literally poured gas on a world-wide financial meltdown.

Iran is now free to sell its oil on the world market.  Almost immediately it announced plans to increase production by 500,000 barrels of oil per day.  The rest of the world noticed and panicked:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/12104064/Iran-sanctions-Middle-East-stock-markets-crash-as-Tehran-enters-oil-war.html

The Middle East Stock markets crashed losing an incredible £27 billion overnight. The U.S. markets are closed today because of Martin Luther King’s Birthday.  Who knows what will happen to the U.S. markets when they open tomorrow.  Panic has a way of spreading and right now it is spreading at the speed of light

At least we have competent leadership, right?  I mean no one is proposing something really stupid like increasing spending, raising income taxes and taxing capital gains as ordinary income, right?  Oops.  Did you watch the debate last night?  That is exactly what they are proposing.

TDM

If you listen to Fox News, Donald Trump won the “New York Values” debate with Ted Cruz.  A lot of the media personalities are from New York and they were offended by Ted Cruz.  They are self-righteously screaming about how unfair this is to their wonderful city.  They all thought Donald Trump handled this brilliantly.  They are right; if you live in New York.  But although New York considers itself to be the center of the universe, the rest of us are less convinced.  This may be a classic example of “what price victory.” 

A lot of us love New York and we really appreciate the NYPD and the NYFD.  New York is a fun place to visit but that does not mean we want arrogant New Yorkers looking down their noses at us telling us how to live.  We are tired of people saying I’m from New York and you’re not so let me explain how things work.  We are tired of the New York Times publishing BS and pretending it ranks right alongside the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution.  And no we don’t think that any sporting team from New York is destined to beat a team from some “little town” place like Kansas City.  When is the last time a New York sports team won a national championship?  Come on, admit it.  There are few things more enjoyable than watching the Yankees self-destruct.  You’re not alone.  Remember the musical comedy “Damn Yankees?” 

I understood exactly what Cruz meant by New York Values.  So will a lot of people in places like Peoria.  Donald Trump is soaring in the polls because people believe he stands up for them.  We long for a leader that is capable of standing up and fighting for us.  Ted Cruz went toe to toe with Donald Trump and he more than held his own.  But he did more than that.  From this point forward Donald Trump will be defined by New York Values.  That will play very well in New York.  How will it play in Iowa?

TDM

The following article is stunning.  There have been other articles addressing this subject, but this is by Charles Lipson.  That really matters:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/01/13/hillary_clintons_coming_legal_crisis_129293.html

Charles Lipson is Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.  He has a Ph. D. from Harvard, an A. M. from Harvard and a B.A. from Yale.  His credentials are impeccable.  This is also published by Real Clear Politics, which has a reputation for at least trying to be fair and balanced.  It will be hard, if not impossible, for the main stream media to ignore this.  At a minimum, every Republican campaign and every top Democrat strategist is reading this very carefully.  Republican will probably say nothing, because when your opponent is self-destructing, the smart choice is to stand by and enjoy the show.  Democratic strategists are probably throwing up.  The nausea won’t get any better when they read the part about Hillary being replaced by Joe Biden, John Kerry, or Elizabeth Warren.

Following is what Lipson says may happen if Hillary is NOT indicted:

Senior FBI officials, including Comey, might well resign. They could not abide, much less defend, an administration that overruled their independent legal judgment for political expediency. That is what happened when the Nixon administration attempted to stop the Watergate investigation. Special Prosecutor Archibald Cox, Attorney General Elliot Richardson, and other senior Justice Department officials all resigned rather than become complicit. The comparisons would be obvious — and catastrophic for the Obama administration and the Democratic Party. Third, there would be high-profile congressional investigations, putting Loretta Lynch and her political appointees in the crosshairs, as well as talk of impeachment. In short, there would be a constitutional crisis at the end of Barack Obama’s presidency, just before the Democratic Party nominates its candidate.

One final thought.  In my opinion, the odds of Hillary Clinton being the next President of the United States are lower than my chances of winning the Powerball Lottery.  I repeat my prior prediction that Hillary Clinton will drop out of the President race because of an undisclosed illness.  The only thing certain is that there is zero chance Hillary Clinton will even consider doing the right thing.

TDM

I grew up a Detroit Lions fan.  Anyone remotely familiar with the Detroit lions knows they are famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  My wife is a Buffalo Bills fan.  They have perfected the art of the miraculous loss. That is why BILLS is an acronym for “Boy I Love Losing Superbowls.”  Of course now they would love to get another chance to lose a Superbowl.

But neither of them can compare to the Republican establishment.  There is pure panic at the prospect of Donald Trump or Ted Cruz winning the nomination.  That just reminds me of why either one would be a better choice than another RINO.

The Republican establishment is desperately trying to make an issue out of whether or not Ted Cruz is eligible to be President. This is beyond ridiculous and is a sure sign of desperation.  Ted Cruz is clearly a natural born citizen.  No responsible legal scholar would dispute that. If you want to find a candidate who does have eligibility issues, check out Marco Rubio.  He was born in the U.S., but neither of his parents were U.S. citizens at the time. If Cruz has a problem, Rubio has a bigger problem. The Republican establish obviously prefers Rubio, so they don’t care.  Donald Trump doesn’t think Rubio is a threat, so he doesn’t care either.

RINOs are prepared to pour a record amount of money on advertising in Iowa and New Hampshire in a last ditch effort to save the day.  Apparently saving the day means anyone other than Donald Trump or Ted Cruz.  The establishment is almost foaming at the mouth with hatred for Ted Cruz. If only they showed such passion when taking on liberal Democrats!

This is actually good news for Ted Cruz because I suspect this is going to backfire big time.  This is the year when everyone is angry.  The highest possible compliment anyone can give to Ted Cruz is to remind people that he is not part of the establishment. I wonder if the RINOs realize that.

TDM

There is a new Gallup poll and the results are stunning:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/188096/democratic-republican-identification-near-historical-lows.aspx?g_source=Politics&g_medium=newsfeed&g_campaign=tiles

• 42% identify as independents, 29% as Democrats, 26% as Republicans
• Independent identification at least 40% for fifth consecutive year

There was a time when most of us got our information from the network news and the newspaper.  If it wasn’t printed in the New York Times, it didn’t matter.  The network news had people like Walter Cronkite, Harry Reason, Chet Huntly, Frank Reynolds, and John Chancellor.  They were people we trusted.  We were probably wrong about that, as in retrospect the bias was always there, but we trusted them.   We were also either Democrats or Republicans.   We had faith in the political parties, although that was probably misguided as well.

Today the biggest political party is the independent.  It is probably worse than that.  For example I know a lot of Republicans who are not exactly thrilled at the Republican Party.  I am sure there are a lot of Democrats who are less than enthusiastic about the Democratic Party.  That means the true percentage of people who consider themselves independent is probably even higher.

Today 53% of Democrats would support Hillary Clinton, even if she is indicted.  That is less scary when you realize only 15.37% of the population is actually that stupid.  This explains why the top two Republican candidates are Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  Donald Trump is running on a campaign of a pox on both houses.  Ted Cruz, while a Republican Senator, is despised by the Republican establishment because he doesn’t play the game.  It explains why Bernie Sanders, a 74 year old wild-eyed socialist trapped in the 60’s may beat Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

This poll has an error rate of about 1%.  It is about as accurate as a poll can get.  The Democratic Party is in deep doo doo and the Republican Party is on life support. The only thing certain is that things are going to change more than anyone predicts.

One final thought.  I was in the USAFSS so I am very familiar with signals intelligence and the importance of protecting it.  Everyone knows that everyone is spying on everyone else.  The big secret is what we know and what we don’t know.  That is why release of signals intelligence analysis is so dangerous.  There was a recent article alleging that Sidney Blumenthal had access to NSA analysis.  It is hard to imagine how he could have got that without help from Hillary Clinton.  If that report is accurate, it will be impossible for anyone to control the coming explosion.  Hell hath no fury like an intelligence community betrayed by its own leaders.

TDM

Joe Biden is saying he regrets his decision to not run for President:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3387934/Joe-Biden-2016-decision-I-regret-day.html#ixzz3wYBM3Cnc

Why would he say this?  If the conventional wisdom is accurate, Hillary Clinton has smooth sailing to the nomination.  Biden knows that he would have no chance of getting the nomination if Hillary is in the race.  That is why he didn’t run in the first place.  Something has changed his mind.  Perhaps he believes Hillary’s days are numbered.  The latest e-mail dump includes one that could be beyond devastating.

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2016/01/08/boom-in-newlyreleased-email-hillary-orders-aide-to-strip-classified-marking-n2101680

Or perhaps, he has Democratic fat cats whispering in his ear.  In spite of the stupid things said publicly, one must assume that at least some top Democrats are no fools.  They have to know that Hillary is in deep trouble.  She could easily lose the nomination to Bernie Sanders who is likely to get slaughtered in a national election.  Would it be a surprise to learn that some of them are reaching out to Biden and asking him if he is interested?  Biden looks like a really bad option, until you look at the rest of the Democratic bench.  I doubt that anyone is really enthusiastic about Biden as a candidate, but we may be close to the “any port in a storm” stage.

TDM

Donald Trump is attacking Ted Cruz because he was born in Canada.  John McCain, who was born in the Panama Canal, also brought it up.  This is clear evidence that both Donald Trump and the Republican establishment are terrified by Ted Cruz.

They would not be doing this if their internal polls were not showing some very scary results.  This is nothing short of a desperate Hail Mary attempt to slow down a strong movement toward Ted Cruz.  If this is all they got, they got nothing.  This could seriously backfire.  .  It could even help Cruz by cementing his reputation as outside the establishment.  This is not only a cheap shot; it is an embarrassingly inept cheap shot.

Donald Trump has recently started to downplay expectations in Iowa.  This is a good indication that his staff has warned him that he is likely to lose there.

I don’t know who is winning at this point, but it is pretty obvious who is starting to show signs of fop sweat.

TDM