According to the pundits, this is now a two man race between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. According to Marco Rubio this is a three man race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz. According to John Kasich this is a four man race. The only thing certain is that Kasich is wrong.
The actual results in South Carolina were as follows:
- Donald Trump: 238,067 (32 percent)
- Marco Rubio: 164,691 (22.5 percent)
- Ted Cruz: 163,732 (22.3 percent)
No one else matters. Jeb Bush has already bowed out. Kasich and Carson are delusional. The main stream media thinks that Rubio is surging and is likely to be the establishment challenger to Trump. They are right about that, but they are missing something. In South Carolina, 61.5% of participants voted against establishment candidates. That is very similar to the pattern in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rubio won’t pick up all of the votes from Bush. Even if Rubio got every Bush vote, he would still be behind Trump. His only chance at the nomination is for Cruz to drop out and I don’t see that happening.
I don’t think that Rubio can beat Trump, but he can stop this from becoming a two man race between Trump and Cruz. The Republican establishment is terrified of A Trump – Cruz campaign. They would rather have no winner than to have either of these guys win. Expect the Republican establishment to go all in on Rubio. That will bring him lots of money and endorsements.
This reminds me of a time when I was on the due diligence team for an acquisition. It was a nice little company and was very well run. The plan was to put it under our management and bring it up to a new level. But I realized that this company actually outperformed any of our branches. In a moment of weakness I blurted out the truth: “This Company is well positioned and profitable but with assistance from our management I expect that to change.” Fortunately the only one who heard this was my boss and he laughed because he felt the same way.
That is the way I feel about the Republican establishment providing money, endorsement and advice for Marco Rubio. If they give him the same level of expertise and support given to Jeb Bush we shouldn’t be surprised if they get similar results. He will certainly be doomed to lose in a general election.
But something else is happening. South Carolina did something else, it woke up conservatives. While the Republican establishment still dreams of stopping Trump and putting in their guy, conservatives realize that if they don’t stop Trump now, it may be too late. They realize that Marco Rubio is an establishment Republican. They also realize that they have been waiting for a candidate like Ted Cruz for a long time. They are all in Ted Cruz. Never underestimate the persuasive power of people like Glenn Beck, Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh. Don’t underestimate Franklin Graham. He is holding meetings in every State Capital and is drawing enormous crowds. He is endorsing no candidate, but his message fits Ted Cruz to a “T.” Conservatives believe Ted Cruz when he says this may be our last chance. They could be right. If we allow Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to name the next Supreme Court justice, this country will become unrecognizable. Rubio will do better than them, but he will be pressured by Republicans to choose a moderate. A moderate is someone who far too often caves in to pressure from Democrats. Replacing Scalia with a moderate will result in a lot of really bad 5-4 Supreme Court decisions.
Perhaps the real question is whether or not we are to allow the main stream media, including Fox News and the Republican establishment, to tell us little folks how things work? That is exactly what is happening now. They have already written off Ted Cruz and are telling us the choice is between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. All have one mission, “anybody but Ted Cruz.” To the ruling elite Ted Cruz is the real threat. They think that Ted Cruz appeals to the far right fringe of white racist uneducated evangelical bigots. The believe that a man who a devote Christian running on a platform of religious freedom, adherence to the constitution and a free market is too out of touch with reality to get elected. Are they right? We will soon know.
But this time the main stream media, Fox News and the Republican establishment no longer has a total monopoly on how people get information. Now most of us rely far more on the internet than the talking heads. That may save Ted Cruz. It may even save the country.
TDM