Donald Trump has always been a fan of tariffs. He is absolutely right when he says American have been subject to extremely unfair tariffs and other taxes world-wide. Most countries have already contacted the U.S. and are negotiating far more favorable deals. The major exception is China, which is now engaged in a who can tariff more battle.
When evaluating this, it is important to remember how the U.S. got involved in World War II, or more specifically why did Japan attack us. One of the major factors that resulted in Pearl Harbor was the decision by Roosevelt to ban iron, steel and oil exports to Japan, jointly with the United Kingdom and Australia.
The 1 Reason Imperial Japan Attacked Pearl Harbor: Oil. – The National Interest
“Finally, after Japanese forces invaded French Indochina (modern Vietnam and Cambodia) in June 1941, President Roosevelt implemented a ban on iron, steel and oil exports to Japan jointly with Australia and the United Kingdom.”
The United States operated under the assumption that Japan would never dare attack us. They were wrong. Japan knew that the United States was far superior in every way. But they felt they had no other choice or face economic ruin. More importantly, if Japan backed down, it would lose face.
The attack on Pearl Harbor was a very short-term success for Japan. However, eventually, it resulted in total defeat. It is hard to imagine how Roosevelt could have done anything to prevent this conflict. Japan had occupied China and French Indochina, a situation the United States could neither ignore nor accept.
Much like the oil embargo in 1941, if China is isolated and unable to sell its products anywhere, it may consider itself in a situation similar to Japan in 1941. Most people in Japan did not want to go to war with the U.S. or anyone else, but the government was extremely powerful and squashed any attempt at rebellion. This is very similar to how the communist regime controls China.
We better all hope and pray that the Trump administration finds a way to negotiate a reasonable compromise with China. While the attack on Pearl Harbor was truly horrible, it does not compare to the amount of damage China could do to the United States. The U.S. has the most powerful military in the world and China knows that. But Japan knew that in 1941 and they still attacked us.
While it is obviously true that China has exploited extremely unfair trade practices which allowed it to dominate world trade everywhere, including the U.S., it is also true that to some extent we encouraged them to do exactly that. This is also remarkably similar to what happened to Japan. The U.S. basically demanded it open its doors to the world. Regarding China, we strongly encouraged them to make products cheaply and sell them to the U.S. and the rest of the world. It is easy to understand why they may be absolutely furious and filled with an anger that is extremely dangerous, both to them and the U.S.
The good news is that Trump is offering a way out with China, which does not require them to lose face. He is publicly saying that he hopes for a fair and reasonable settlement with China. In the meantime, the Chinese government is overextended and extremely vulnerable. If it cannot sell its goods to the U.S. anymore it will be a crippling blow to an already overstretched economy. Some very smart people even predict that the entire economy could collapse. That is remarkably similar to the crisis Japan faced in 1941.
This is not 1941 and one hopes and prays that this will be resolved quickly without the need for military conflict. We are extremely fortunate that the President of the United States is Donald Trump and not the pool of idiots messing things up behind the scenes, hiding behind the illusion of Joe Biden. It is also good that, so far, regarding China, Trump has a lot of bi-partisan support. Hopefully, Trump will offer China a solution it can accept, without suffering economic decline and more importantly without losing face. He at least hints that this is his goal.
While this is a frightening situation, if not Trump, then who? If not now, then when? Making no decision on an unacceptable situation or just kicking the can down the road seldom works and, in this case, doing nothing might just be the most dangerous option.
TDM