The situation in Syria is a hot mess. This is not exactly new. The Old Testament is full of references to conflicts with Syria. Syria was part of the Roman Empire from abut 64 BC to 636 AD. Then it was ruled by the Ottoman Empire Turks from 1516 to 1916. The French took over in 1916 and Syria became “independent” in 1946. The United Arab Republic, when Syria and Egypt united, ended in 1970 when President Hafez al-Assad took over as dictator. His son, Bashar al-Assad took over in 2000 when Hafez died. There has been a civil war in Syria since 2011. Now Bashar al-Assad is gone and is living in Moscow.
Anyone expecting Syria to become a tranquil peaceful place is ignoring history. But if you want to know what to expect, just read how this was described by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of the main group HTS, formerly an al Qaeda affiliate: “victory for the entire Islamic nation.” The United States has been bombing ISIS targets and Israel has moved troops across the border. Germany and Austria have paused asylum applications for Syrians. Germany is also offering free rides to any of the million or so Syrian refugees who want to go home. Some have suggested chartering planes and giving people $1,060 to help them make the transition.
Few things are more certain than that Joe Biden will get this wrong. He has been wrong on every major foreign policy decision for 50 years. Jake Sullivan said former terrorist groups are saying all the right things. “We’re going to work with all the groups in Syria, and as President Biden said yesterday, the rebel groups, including the ones that have been designated as terrorist groups, have actually said all the right things. Now the question is, what will they do to try to bring about a better Syria,”
If you want to see what this looks like, check out how brilliantly Jimmy Carter managed things with Iran. Sullivant went on to say that people who “We’re prepared to work with anyone in Syria who wants a stable, inclusive democratic future for that country,” Right! That’ll happen.
If you buy this, go back, and re-read the remarks by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani. Democracy in this region usually means an Islamic dictatorship. The only real democracy in the Middle East is Israel. That is not an accident. Lebanon is sometimes considered to be a democracy. But if you speak out against the religion leaders, make sure your life insurance is current.
The sad truth is that Syria is destined to become a Muslim Theocracy and the only real dispute is which version of Islam will be in control. Someone will win and kill everyone else. The winner is extremely unlikely to be our friend and absolute certain to never consider being friends with Israel.
At best the new leaders may agree, temporarily, to stop preaching death to Israel, but that hasn’t lasted for about six thousand years and won’t last now.
There is no doubt that Bashar al-Assad was a bad guy who kept power through brute force. Kinda like the Shah of Iran operated before Carter talking him making Iran paradise on earth. So, if you want my prediction, Syria will become like Iran. The best option is for the U.S. and Israel is for Iran and Syria to fight harder against each other than against us. Bashar al-Assad was a devil, but better the devil you know than the devil you don’t. Welcome to the devil you don’t. Once again, the devil will be in the details.
TDM