While I was on a shopping trip to Sam’s Club last weekend, I noticed that several shoppers were not wearing masks. This is the first time I have noticed that in months. Several states have already ended mask mandates. This is very likely to spread rapidly. The CDC just published a report verifying that masks don’t matter, but then ignored the results. Here is the link to the CNBC article:
CDC study finds easing mask mandates led to higher Covid cases and deaths (cnbc.com)
This has a scary headline, showing that easing mask and restaurant rules led to more COVID cases and deaths. But if you read the actual study, it becomes obvious that the opposite is true.
“Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.”
Daily death growth rates before restrictions were lifted were not statistically different from those during the reference period, whereas significant differences in daily case growth rates were observed 41–60 days before restrictions were lifted.
In other words, neither masks nor limiting indoor dining had any statistical difference in results. In addition, this was not really a scientific study:
The findings in this report are subject to at least three limitations. First, although models controlled for mask mandates, restaurant and bar closures, stay-at-home orders, and gathering bans, the models did not control for other policies that might affect case and death rates, including other types of business closures, physical distancing recommendations, policies issued by localities, and variances granted by states to certain counties if variances were not made publicly available. Second, compliance with and enforcement of policies were not measured. Finally, the analysis did not differentiate between indoor and outdoor dining, adequacy of ventilation, and adherence to physical distancing and occupancy requirements.
There are studies in Switzerland that reached the same statistical conclusion as the CDC report. Here is the truth. Most of us have changed our lifestyles drastically during the last year. We don’t go anywhere, and we don’t socialize with anyone which makes it less likely that we catch anything, including the common cold. But this comes at a high cost.
Let me put the CDC report in perspective. It is like a college football coach talking to the media after his team lost 48-0. He says that he thought his defense did well, because they held the other team under 50 points. The CDC has been preaching mask mandates and restricting indoor dining. If it admitted that this really had little if any impact, it would be the height of embarrassment. It had to say they worked, regardless of results, or they look like idiots.
At worst, 81 to 100 days after implementing the mask mandates and banning indoor eating, the number of cases grew by 1.1% and the number of deaths grew by 3%. In addition, there are so many other factors that it is not clear that masks mandates or banning indoor dining had any impact at all.
If we assume there are 500,000 COVID deaths, which is clearly overstated, then according to this report if there had been none of these restrictions, the death count may have increased to 515,000. When one considers how many people died from other causes, because of these restrictions the results are staggering. We know that people died because they postponed cancer screening and, in some cases, surgical operations. We will never know exactly how many people died because of these restrictions, but it is certainly higher than 15,000.
There are now several states who have totally lifted mask mandates and limitations on attendance at sporting events and concerts. A lot, if not most, people over age 65 have been vaccinated. This means that the death rate will continue to decline, even if COVID spreads. In fact, if it spreads among people who are unlikely to get seriously ill, it will just speed us on the path to herd immunity. Unless those states that are open experience a catastrophic increase in cases, hospitalizations and death, the demand to lift restrictions everywhere will soon become a political tsunami.
My wife and I went out to dinner last Thursday and dined indoors. Just as we walked in, my wife turned to me and said: “free at last.” Contrast that with Dr. Fauci who said even if we are vaccinated, we should wear masks. Why? If I have been vaccinated, I am not a threat to anyone. Neither is anyone a threat to me. What is the concern here? That I will touch someone or something that was touched by someone who had Covid and then touch someone or something else. Seriously? Is anyone buying this? Most recently he said we could even have some people come over, who are not vaccinated, if they are all from one family and no one has COVID. This is literally insane. Soon and very soon this will be obvious to everyone. Even Governor Newsome is saying professional teams can now have fans if they are limited to 20% of capacity. Where did that come from. Has anyone shown that 20% of capacity is safer than 30% of capacity? Did anyone ever try to yell with a mask on?
Try this yourself. Trust me, this will make you feel better. Go outside, wearing a mask, and yell “Newsom Sucks!” Now take your mask off, and yell “Newsom Sucks!” I guarantee you will feel better, and this will have nothing to do with increasing your risk of catching COVID.
TDM