Democrats started their second impeachment trial of Donald Trump today. They started by lying, showing a video by Donald Trump that deliberately edited out the part where he specifically told people to be peaceful and patriotic. It was highly emotional but lacking in substance. They showed numerous tweets by Donald Trump that they interpreted to be inciting an insurrection. All of this was more than a reach.  It was long on emotion and short on substance. Their basic premise is that they hate Trump and so must find a way to punish him.

Trump’s attorneys presented a concise legal argument. It was, of course, ignored by all the Democratic Senators and six Republicans. Like most legal arguments, it was a bit boring. The entire day was a waste of time. The same result could have been achieved without bothering to hear any arguments at all. Both arguments were directed at the public audience, not the audience in front of them. Democrats are aiming at the Democratic base and their fawning supporters in the MSM. Republicans are aiming at the 74 million people who voted for Donald Trump. They are also crafting arguments for a hearing by the Supreme Court. In the unlikely event that Trump is convicted, the Trump attorneys would immediately appeal to the Supreme Court. I suspect the Supreme Court would quickly vacate the decision.

I was a litigation manager for many years, handling thousands of lawsuits. One of the important qualifications for that job is evaluating how a case will really play in front of a jury. Not what you want to believe, but what is reality. On several occasions I had attorneys tell me I should try a case. For the attorneys, the risk was low, because they got paid either way. I had one case where my attorneys strongly recommended proceeding to trial. So, I made them an offer: “If we take it to trial, and you win, I will pay your legal fees. But if you try this and lose, you will not be paid.” They were furious and quickly said no, how could you even ask us to do that. I responded by saying that this was exactly what they were asking me to do. I settled the case. Quite honestly, it wasn’t even a close call.

So, I watched these proceedings with the view of determining how the real jury, public opinion, will respond. How will the Democratic base and the MSM respond? How will the millions of Trump supporters respond? And how will the large number of independents respond?

It is easy to predict how Democrats and the MSM will respond, they have already decided that Trump is guilty. The Republican base is also easy to predict. They will be outraged that the trial is even happening and even more outraged at the obvious lack of due process. With regard to independents, I believe most of them are already asking the most important question: “What, exactly, is the point?”

There is another significant factor, ignored by Democrats and the MSM to their great peril. We know that 74 million people definitely voted for Donald Trump. They would have us believe that 80 million people voted for Joe Biden, but I doubt that anyone really believes that. They may not believe the election was stolen, but it is absolutely certain that the entire deck was shuffled against Donald Trump. The Time Magazine article documented that for anyone in doubt.  Even if 80 million people voted against Donald Trump, but they did not vote for Joe Biden. If Democrats are wrong about the number of people who actually voted for Donald Trump, they are making an irrevocable error.

In any trial, there are winners and losers. Six Republicans stupidly voted to let this trial continue. They are Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska, and Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. This was at best, stupid. If they had voted no, the result would have been a 50/50 tie and Kamala Harris would have been forced to cast the deciding vote. That would have put her between a rock and a hard place. So, for purely political reasons, this was a huge unforced error. I suspect all of them will pay a high price for this mistake.

One thing is certain, the political pundits commenting on this are usually those least capable of rendering judgement. Donald Trump is letting his attorneys speak for him. That is a huge change for him, and it puts tremendous pressure on Democrats. It also reduces the viewing audience by a huge margin. Few Trump supporters will be interested in watching this fiasco.

I believe people are going to be surprised at the huge increase in support for Donald Trump. This is human nature. Democrats are kicking him while he is down, and if he continues to handle this with grace and dignity, they will only embarrass themselves.

This will definitely be a trial of tears. The question is who will be crying when it is done. My guess is that the list will not include Donald Trump.

TDM