FULL GALLUP

The last Gallup survey is in and it is devastating for Democrats.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/144053/2010-Electorate-Looking-Republican-Past.aspx

  The following chart says it all:

 

If this is even close to accurate, Democrats are in world class thumping.  Keep in mind that in 1994 Republicans took back the House and the Senate, something that no one predicted prior to the election.  Republicans were expected to do well, but most people expected Democrats to retain control of both the House and the Senate.  They were wrong.  The margin in this poll is three times what it was in 1994 and conservatives drastically out number moderates. 

Today Rasmussen reports that 65% of voters would like to completely replace congress.  We really don’t know what will happen Tuesday, but the following is certainly true:

No incumbent is truly safe.  Republican incumbents are in much less trouble Democrats but an anti-incumbent surge may affect both parties.  In the House, that will be devastating to Democrats.   In the Senate any incumbent without a very solid lead should be worried.  The only Democrats with that kind of lead are Schumer, Leahy and Mikulski.  All other Democratic Senators have at least a chance of losing.  So far no Republican Senator appears to be at risk, but in this climate they should be nervous as well.

We are certain to see the following on Tuesday night.   It will become quickly clear that Republicans have retaken the House.  The real question will be by what margin.  Political pundits will be shocked at some of the people removed from office.   There will be surprises with regard to the Senate, in some cases shocking results.

We get an early indication of how things are going by watching the returns on Chuck Schumers race in New York.   He appears to be up by 30 points.  If he wins by say 15 points then the fight is on.

We are in the back stretch.

TDM