The Iowa caucuses are famous for yielding results that are unexpected by the main stream media.  Traditional polls are often very inaccurate with regard to actual outcome.  In 2012, nine days before the election polls had Newt Gingrich leading, followed by Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul.  Then there was Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann.  Rick Santorum was not on anyone’s radar.  He ended up beating Mitt Romney by a very narrow margin.  Gingrich finished a distant fourth.  He never recovered.

Here is what the media does not understand.  Social issues really matter in Iowa.  That is why Santorum won and why the polls were so wrong.  If that happens again, Ted Cruz could score a major victory.  The American Conservative understands this.

http://www.theamericanconservative.com/mccarthy/iowas-next-santorum-vote-surprise/

Here is how this author described the Iowa evangelicals:

They are rock steady, not swayed by media buzz or the showbiz glitz of a modern presidential campaign. They are also organized: their churches and religious groups are ready-made battalions that translate directly into political strength.

Elite centrists in the GOP who do indeed recognize the religious right as a separate species from themselves nevertheless tend to perceive the evangelical vote as basically populist rather than distinctly values-driven.

I could add something.  Nothing offends evangelicals more than someone who tries to shine them on.  Donald Trump may have done himself a lot of damage when he quoted from “two” Corinthians.  I doubt that many evangelicals are impressed with his lifestyle of the rich and famous, his three wives and the videos of his extreme liberal positions in the past. He would have been smarter to say that he respects them and he will protect their rights to religion freedom than to pretend to be one of them.

Ted Cruz, on the other hand, is a genuine evangelical and they know it.  While Trump is performing in front of huge crowds, Ted Cruz is meeting private with local pastors.  We may see two very strong undercurrents in play in Iowa.  Neither one is showing up on the main stream media radar.  One undercurrent flowing strongly toward Cruz and one undercurrent flowing strongly against Trump.  If that is true, the results in Iowa may be stunning.

TDM