At this point there are 17, that’s right, 17 Republican candidates for President. It is the theatre of the absurd. Today is the first major audition for these candidates and it is likely to be a hot mess. The big event is the “debate” between the top ten candidates. Theoretically they all get equal time, but of course that won’t happen. This is the Donald Trump variety show and his personality will dominate the stage. That is not necessarily a good thing for him, but it certainly creates challenges for everyone else. Trump is the master at making himself bigger than life.
The format is ridiculous. Candidates will have one minute to respond to a question with a 30 second follow up. It is a two hour debate and there are ten candidates. That amounts to 12 minutes per candidate. When you subtract the pauses and the questions by the moderators, who will be showing off too, each candidate will be lucky to get five minutes of air time. Regardless of who is speaking, odds are that Donald Trump will be part of the picture.
Every participant, other than Donald Trump is focused on how to handle Trump. Some will decide to attack him, some will pretend to ignore him, but he will always be the elephant in the room and everyone’s attention will be riveted on him. I doubt this will do much to help us choose a President, but it could be fun to watch.
If all the other candidates attack Trump, that will just make him look even bigger. If they don’t attack him, he will continue to soar in the polls, for a while. In the long run, Trump is a lot like Newt Gingrich. People really like him because he is good at hammering people, but then they are reminded of all the reasons they don’t trust him and he will plummet in the polls. Trump is destined for a huge fall when people learn about some of the positions he has held and the outrageous things he has said and done. Conservatives do not like people who are inconsistent on core values and no one is more consistently inconsistent than Donald Trump. In the meantime, he is likely to leave bodies all over the political landscape.
Some people have a lot at risk tonight. Jeb Bush is most vulnerable because if he does not look like he is capable of handling Donald Trump, everyone will question whether he is capable of handling anyone else. Scott Walker needs to show that he can handle the big stage. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio can just be themselves and watch the carnage. Mike Huckabee will be Mike Huckabee and no one will care. Ben Carson will be Ben Carson and people will care but that won’t make him look Presidential. Chris Christie is beyond desperate and he has to hit a homerun. He is a formidable street fighter and he may take on Trump directly. Christie is very dangerous in these situations.
Ultimately, Christie has the same problem as Newt Gingrich and Donald Trump. He has way too much baggage and conservatives will never fully trust him. His “bromance” with Barack Obama after Hurricane Sandy was beyond pathetic.
John Kasich is the guy who snuck in under the tent and people will question whether he is worthy. He will be lucky to get a word in edgewise. In addition he has a bad habit of talking about himself and, so far, he has difficulty inspiring people.
I predict chaos and people are going to get hurt.
The pre-debate forum scheduled for the other seven candidates may actually be far more important. Rick Perry caught a huge break by missing the cut. If he was on that stage, everyone would have treated him as an irrelevant piece of used furniture. It would have been nearly impossible for Perry to impress anyone in that scenario. Donald Trump will make everyone else on the stage look small in comparison. That would have been devastating to Perry.
Now he will be front and center and he won’t be competing in a circus event. He just may get that coveted chance to re-introduce himself to the American people. Even the liberal media is likely to treat him well, if only to take a shot at Fox News for unfairly cutting him from the “big debate.” Perry has been transformed into the underdog worthy of a chance. That is probably the best thing that could have happened to him.
Carly Fiorina is very sharp and she will hold her own. She probably will spend her time taking on Hillary and is unlikly to challenge Rick Perry. It doesn’t really matter what Bobby Jindal, Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum or Lindsey Graham do because none of them are likely to challenge anyone for the nomination. They will just provide further justification for Fox New’s decision to exclude them in the first place. I doubt that any of them will take a shot at Perry, they will attack Obama, Hillary or Trump.
Rick Perry is the only one, in either forum, likely to provide a vision for a better tomorrow. People already know who to hate, they are looking for someone to inspire.
One final note: Ted Cruz will be the smartest man on the stage and he is by far the most skilled debater. So far he has avoided attacking Donald Trump. That is likely to continue, but Cruz is a very dangerous man because when he does attack it is with great skill and determination. He is the person least likely to make a mistake during this debate.
TDM