I do not think there will be a war over the Ukraine.  Russia does not need to start a war to win.  Russia is allegedly massing troops at the Ukrainian border.  Does anyone doubt that Vladimir Putin is capable of ordering them into action?  The threat alone is probably enough to seal the deal.  The United States, on the other hand, has attacked with an arrogant speech by John Kerry.

This, of course, is the same John Kerry who gave nine reasons the United States should attack Syria:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/30/john-kerry-statement-us-intervention-syria

“So the primary question is really no longer, what we know. The question is what are we — we collectively — what are we in the world going to do about it.”

“It is directly related to our credibility and whether countries still believe the United States when it says something.  They are watching to see if Syria can get away with it, because then maybe they too can put the world at greater risk.”

“And it matters to who we are.  And it matters to leadership and to our credibility in the world.  My friends, it matters here if nothing is done.  It matters if the world speaks out in condemnation and then nothing happens.”

Kerry sounded real tough, until the part where he started dithering.  By the end of the speech Kerry was telling the world that Barack Obama was firmly committed to indecision.  .

“We also know that we have a president that does what he says that he will do.  And he has said, very clearly, that whatever decision he makes in Syria it will bear no resemblance to Afghanistan, Iraq or even Libya.  It will not involve any boots on the ground.  It will not be open ended.  And it will not assume responsibility for a civil war that is already well underway.

The president has been clear:  Any action that he might decide to take will be limited and tailored response to ensure that, a despot’s brutal and flagrant use of chemical weapons is held accountable.  And, ultimately, ultimately we are committed – – we remain committed, we believe it’s – – the primary objective is to have a diplomatic process that can resolve this though negotiation, because we know there is no ultimate military solution.

This is pure insanity.  After telling the world why action is required we then explain why action won’t work and we outline all the various actions we won’t take.

Suppose there is a bad guy posed outside your house, with a gun, who threatens to come in and shoot you if you do not give him money.  You call the police and they advise you that what the man is doing is wrong, but they don’t actually have anyone available to provide assistance.  They offer to talk to the guy to try and convince him to leave you alone.  Obviously, the only smart move is to give this guy what he wants and “hope” he moves on to another victim.  Sadly, this is probably how the people in Ukraine view the situation.  Who can blame them?  If you were in the Ukraine would you have faith in the United States under the leadership of Barack Obama?

This is beyond embarrassing, it is dangerous.  I am fairly sure that Putin does not want military action.  But, if he believes that Obama is this weak, he may make a mistake that requires even Obama to grow a spine.

TDM