In 2006, Hillary Rodham Clinton was odds on favorite to win the Democratic nomination for President.  She was also odds on favorite to beat any Republican in the general election.  How’d that work out?  Now the same people are convinced that Hillary is a shoe-in to win the Presidential election in 2016.  Are they right this time?

In 2006, Hillary started her campaign before everyone else.  She spent more money than everyone else.  The result was that she peaked in the polls before everyone else.  The Clinton strategy with regard to the election of 2008 was to suck as much cash and oxygen out of the room early so that no serious contender would have a chance.  It didn’t work.

So this time, Hillary is using the same strategy, only she is starting about a year earlier.  Don’t assume that the same failed strategy she tried in 2006 is going to work any better this time.

Political candidates, just like everything else in nature, seldom remain stationary.  They are either moving up or they are moving down.  Hillary is already at the top, which means the only direction she can possibly move is down.  The reason she is polling so high at the moment is that she is being compared to nobody.  Somebody always does better than nobody.  What the polls really show is that the Democrats literally have no bench.

In case you doubt that, name five Democrats who are legitimate Presidential candidates, other than Hillary Clinton.  Are you having trouble coming up with names?  Perhaps the following list will help.

http://2016.democratic-candidates.org/

This is a pretty pathetic list.

Now try to name 10 Republicans who are legitimate Presidential candidates.  Odds are your biggest challenge is winnowing the list down to only ten.  Following is the list of people mentioned as possible Republican candidates:

http://2016.republican-candidates.org/

It is simple.  If you have more qualified people competing for a position, you end up with a much stronger winner.  I believe that the real reason Republicans lost in 2012 was that Mitt Romney had no serious competition.  It seemed like every primary was between Mitt and the next “not Mitt” and eventually we ran out of “not Mitts.”

We’ve heard this coronation tune for Hillary before.  It didn’t end well for Hillary in 2008 and it is unlikely to end well for her in 2016.  She peaked too early in 2006 and she is peaking two early in 2014.  I predict she will be left with Twin Peaks, but no oval office.

TDM