In 1876 General Henry Martin Robert published a book called “Robert’s Rules of Order.” He was inspired to write the book when he was asked to chair a church meeting in 1863 and he didn’t know what to do. He found out no one else knew what to do either, so he literally wrote the book himself. Obviously he did a pretty good job, because this is still the way a lot of meetings are run today.
In 2014, we are about to experience, for the first time, a new set of “Robert’s Rules.” We are about to see the real effect of the Supreme Court decision authored by Supreme Court Justice Roberts in June 2012. Odds are that this will surprise almost everyone.
At the time, conservatives were outraged by the decision. Liberals were ecstatic. Both were wrong because both failed to understand the significance of this decision. That is about to change:
- John Roberts did not uphold ObamaCare as constitutional. In fact, he held it as unconstitutional under the Commerce Clause. He only upheld the individual mandate and he only upheld that as a tax. No one has challenged the authority of congress to tax employers.
Note: Obama has already suspended the employer mandate and the individual mandate. He has in effect repealed the only part of the law that was constitutional.
- Roberts ruled that Congress does not have the authority, under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution, to force private individuals to buy health insurance.
Note: Congress cannot force people to buy health insurance. They also cannot force insurance companies to offer health insurance. I am not sure they can even require employers to provide health insurance; they can just tax them if they don’t. Since the employer mandate has been delayed, there is nothing requiring employers to offer health insurance to anyone.
The McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1944 specifically left regulation of insurance to the states. The federal government has limited authority to regulate insurance.
Congress has passed laws regulating employer sponsored plans. ERISA, COBRA and HIPAA all regulate employer sponsored health insurance. These laws set the standards for employer sponsored health insurance in order to qualify for a tax deduction. Employers can offer other plans; they just wouldn’t be able to deduct the premiums. The primary enforcement mechanism is and was the tax code.
- Roberts also ruled that the federal government could not force state governments to expand Medicaid.
Note: Many states said no. Based on what limited information is available, a high percentage of the new enrollees have signed up for Medicaid. The costs of Medicaid are going to skyrocket and the House is unlikely to vote to spend more funds on a program they consider to be a mistake. That means states who signed up all those new Medicaid enrollees are going to have a really big problem. How are states, already running unsustainable deficits, going to fund skyrocketing Medicaid costs with no assistance from the federal government?
- In addition, Roberts ruled that states were not required to set up state exchanges to sell ACA-compliant policies.
Note: Most of the states did not set up exchanges. That is a major reason the ObamaCare enrollment was a total disaster. They were trying to enroll 36 states in a one-size-fits-all program designed by clueless liberals.
The first shoe has already fallen. Judge Sotomayor issued an injunction delaying the ACA birth control mandate. Keep in mind that Sotomayor already signed off on the Roberts decision. Don’t be surprised if her decision is affirmed by the entire court. After all, the court has already ruled that the federal government cannot force people to buy insurance. That includes employers. It is going to be hard to justify the fines in this case because Obama has already given employers who offer no coverage at all an exemption.
It is impossible for anyone to predict any Supreme Court and certainly impossible to predict this court. But if they remain consistent with the Roberts decision, ObamaCare opponents are going to start winning court decisions.
I am reminded at the time of the decision John Roberts said it was “not the job of the Supreme Court to protect the people from the consequences of their political choices.” Conservatives wanted Roberts to rule ObamaCare unconstitutional because they knew it was a bad law. They were asking Roberts to bail them out. But Roberts reminded them that it was their job to pass laws, the Supreme Court’s only legitimate role was to determine whether or not such a law was constitutional. By ruling it constitutional, but only on a very narrow basic, John Roberts may have delivered the ultimate poison pill to ObamaCare.
If Roberts had overturned ObamaCare, the liberal media would have gone nuts. Democrats would have launched a massive media campaign accusing Republicans of blocking health care for the poor, the elderly and the ill. You know the same liberal nonsense they have been spewing for decades. The liberal main stream media would have chimed in with nightly sob stories. Republicans would have gotten all of the blame. Obama would still have been re-elected and we might be dealing with Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House.
Now, Democrats own ObamaCare lock stock and barrel and it is a really rotten barrel. They can’t blame this on Republicans and they can’t blame it on the Supreme Court. ObamaCare may do more damage to the Democratic Party and the liberal cause than anyone is currently predicting. It is really that bad and there is zero chance it can be rescued.
The Roberts ruling means that neither the administration nor Congress can fix ObamaCare because neither has the authority to fix it. They can’t order people to buy insurance. They can’t order insurance carriers to sell insurance. The only two options available are to increase taxes or increase spending.
If there are truly millions of people who are without health insurance and the only option is ObamaCare we are going to see an unprecedented political tsunami. The American people will demand a solution and they will demand it now! The only rescue ship on the horizon is the insurance industry. The same insurance industry that Obama arrogantly blamed for all our problems.
I do not know where this goes. Expect surprises. Scott Walker’s simple proposal to give the money to the people and let them buy insurance is one example of a creative solution. There will be more. All over the world tonight brilliant people are lying awake trying to figure out how to exploit this disaster. There are always people ready, willing and able to exploit any disaster. Some of these people own insurance companies and they have lots of financial resources.
In the meantime, thanks to Robert’s Rules, neither congress nor this administration has the authority to do anything that would fix the problem. They can point fingers. They can spend money. They can raise taxes. They will, of course, scream and yell and pretend that this is secretly working, but political rhetoric is a poor substitute for health coverage.
TDM