We are in the midst of something remarkable.   Just a few days ago a military strike against Syria looked inevitable.   That is not true today.   David Cameron called parliament into emergency session and asked for authority to take military action against Syria.  Parliament turned him down.  It was a humiliating defeat for Cameron.  The last time that happened in Great Britain was 1782, when the British Parliament intervened to end the Revolutionary War with the United States.  This public humiliation of Cameron also had an impact on the political environment in the United States.

Once again Ted Cruz is way ahead of the curve.  He asked why parliament was discussing this but congress was not.  Good question.  John Boehner is openly challenging President Obama.  He has written him a letter demanding that Obama consult with congress and make the case for taking military action against Syria.  He has warned Obama that in his opinion if Obama does not do that he will be in violation of the U.S. Constitution.  He has demanded that Obama show leadership and explain to congress why we are doing this and what we hope to accomplish.

One serious problem for Obama is that then Senator Joe Biden threatened to impeach George W. Bush if he dared attack Iran without congressional approval.   Biden later doubled down during an interview with Chris Matthews where he said that a President does not have the power to do this without congressional approval.  Neither congress nor the President want to test the constitutionality of the War Powers Act passed on November 7, 1973.

http://www.loc.gov/law/help/war-powers.php

The war powers act was passed in spite of President Richard Nixon’s veto.  Every subsequent President has taken the position that the war powers act is unconstitutional, yet they have also made very sure they never tested this position.  But now we have a President who may have blundered his way into exactly such a constitutional crisis.  If President Obama had ordered an assault on Syria shortly after learning of the alleged chemical attack, he would have received support from both parties.  Republicans have a long tradition of putting national security ahead of party politics.  They didn’t even challenge Clinton when he ordered air raids on Iraq, in spite of there being no crisis, during the middle of his impeachment trial.

The delay in taking action has resulted In the American people and members of congress having time to reflect on this situation and the results are earth shattering.  Some public opinion polls have only 5% of the population supporting military action against Syria.  The most optimistic survey I have seen shows support at only 31%.  Obama is rapidly losing the political base necessary to support taking military action.

It is impossible to predict what will happen.  If Obama backs off now and does not take military action against Syria, he will suffer a humiliating international political defeat.  Even if he comes up with some face saving explanation for changing his mind, no one will take him seriously in the future.  On the other hand, if he attacks Syria with such widespread public opposition and in direct defiance of congress, he better hope for overwhelming success.  Otherwise he is likely to trigger a constitutional crisis.  This naïve, arrogant and incompetent President may have painted himself into the ultimate corner.

The Voice of America is finally being heard and it is a resounding rejection of Barack Obama as our Commander in Chief.  It is increasingly clear that Obama has lost the support of leaders in both political parties.  As Lincoln once said:  you can fool some of the people all the time and all of the people some of the time but you can’t fool all of the people all of the time.  Right now, Obama isn’t fooling anyone.

TDM