In order to understand this election, we have to look back at 2008. Obama won several states that had voted for Bush in 2004. Those states were:
Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.
All of the above states are considered toss-ups in this election cycle, with the possible exception of New Mexico. In addition, two more states have been added to the toss up category:
Wisconsin, New Hampshire
Romney has three states that are only “leaning” Romney instead of “safe” Romney. Those states are Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.
Obama has three states that are only “leaning” Obama instead of “safe” Obama. Those states are Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico.
Wisconsin, significantly, has moved from “safe” Obama to “tossup.”
So, let me summarize. The election in 2008 showed a large number of states switching from Republican (Bush) to Democrat (Obama). Since Obama is not assured of winning any of those states, they are considered tossups. (The only exception is New Mexico, which may be leaning Obama). Two more states have been added to the tossup list, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. No state, won by McCain in 2008 is considered a tossup state in this election cycle. This means all the movement is away from the 2008 results. Yet almost all of the polls are based on 2008 results, although Rasmussen uses a blend between 2004 and 2008. No one is using 2010 turnout.
That just may be a major mistake, because there is strong evidence of a major change in demographics since 2008. Gallup measures Party affiliation and this has been showing a strong move toward Republicans over the past four years:
http://www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2011/11/increasingly-republican-states-america/356/
The percent of people who now consider themself as leaning Republican has increased in 47 out of 50 states. In 20 of these states the increase is by 5 points or more. Gallup only found three states where the percent of people leaning Republican decreased. Those states were Georgia, Arizona and Mississippi and this was by less than 1%. By the way, these are all “safe” Romney states.
Yet all the turnout models used in the recent polls are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than a Republican turnout, because that is what happened in 2008. Incredibly some polls are showing Obama leading with Romney winning the independent vote. It is hard to imagine Obama winning this election if he does not win the independent vote.
The bottom line is that the numbers don’t add up. Either Gallup was full of crap in November of 2011, or a lot of people have switched back from Republican to Democrat in the last 12 months, or the recent polls totally lack credibility.
There are no guarantees in life or elections, but one thing is clear. Somebody is really wrong. Either Gallup was really wrong in November of 2011, or the polls are wrong now. We will know shortly.
TDM