I expected Paul Ryan to do well, but this well?  Wow!  The last time I saw anything close to this was when Ronald Reagan gave a televised speech just before the 1964 Presidential election.  Democrats expected some “B” level actor.  Instead they were introduced to the “Great Communicator.  Commentators tonight expected Ryan to give a good speech, but they never dreamed that he could be so effective at connecting with an audience.  He had that rare ability to connect with the television audience just as well as he did with all those die hard Republicans in the Tampa Convention Center.  We just saw the public unveiling of a new force of nature.  I recommend Democratic leaders all over the country put in an order for a mountain of Maalox.  They are going to need it.

Democrats will respond, as they always respond, with personal attacks and class warfare rhetoric.  They will try to destroy Ryans credibility by challenging some of his facts.  Then they will try to portray him as an evil villian determined to give huge tax cuts to big corporations while leaving Granny to die all alone without her Medicare.  But this time they have a couple of huge problems.  One is that even if you disagree with Paul Ryan he oozes credibility.  No one, who watched him discuss his grandmother with Alzheimers is going to believe that this man wants to cut off health care for granny.  Then, in a moment of high theater, he made a compelling argument that it was Obama who is threatening granny’s Medicare.  It was stunningly effective.  Ryan took the traditional Democratic Mediscare play book and used it against them.  It was a remarkable achievement.

This is going to be a speech that will be remembered for a long time.  The biggest problem for Republicans is that Mitt Romney has a very tough act to follow.  But Mitt Romney is not John McCain.  He probably won’t be nearly as effective as Ryan, but he will be effective enough.  Ultimately, Paul Ryan did a magnificent job of teeing it up for Romney. 

Ari Fleischer made a very astute observation.  He said the real issue is whether Republicans and  Democrats show up the way they did in 2008, the way they did in 2004 or the way they showed up in 2012.  He pointed out that unless Democrats show up in unprecedented numbers, as they did in 2008, that Obama is in serious trouble.  None of the liberal pundits, including Carville, challenged him on that.  That is because they know he is right.  But what Fleischer didn’t say is that a split between 2004 and 2008 is close to the best case scenario for Obama, and under that scenario Obama loses.  No one in either party seriously believes Democrats will repeat the 2008 turnout.  If Republican and Democrat turnout is similar to what is was in 2004, Romney will win in a landslide.  If it is similar to what it was in 2010, it may be a total wipeout.  The least likely scenario is a repeat of 2008.  Only a deaf, dumb and blind liberal optimist without access to polling data would predict that scenario. 

One final thought.  Joe Biden is scheduled to speak next week.  Imagine you are a liberal Democrat with faint residual dreams of Obama squeaking out a victory in November.  Now imagine that you just got done watching Paul Ryan explode off the screen.  Now close your eyes and imagine Joe Biden trying to match this performance.  Suddenly you get this cold clammy feeling and you feel faint.  You wonder if there is enough alcohol in the house.  Then you think about the upcoming debate between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan, on national television.  A mountain of Maalox may not be enough.

TDM