The Obama administration is celebrating the ‘Supreme Court decision to uphold the individual mandate.  The Obama administration is estatic at what they consider to be a huge victory.  But upon closer reading of the decision, it may actually doom Obama care.

First, Roberts said that the individual mandate was upheld because it was a tax.  It was not upheld under the commerce clause.  That matters for a lot of reasons.  One was that Obamacare was sold on the basis that it wasn’t a tax.  It is.  Another was that if congress can pass a tax, they can repeal a tax.  If the tax is repealed, Obama care is gone.

Second, the ruling says the individual mandate wasn’t constitutional under the Commerce clause.  It also said the federal government cannot require states to take on huge new federally mandated entitlement programs for which there is no funding. That will kill more than Obamacare.  It will kill a ton of unpopular federal mandates, including benefits states are required to provide illegal aliens.  This decision will have a major impact on these programs.   Ultimately, this probably gives the states the right to withdraw from Obamacare.  Keep in mind that 26 states have already filed lawsuits against Obama care.  They actually won.  The court ruled that the government cannot do this under the commerce clause.  I predict that states will begin immediately withdrawing from Obamacare. 

Third.  This will energize the Republican base even more than it was before.  This law does not have majority support and the campaign, in addition to being about the economy, will be about repealing Obamacare.  That will help Republicans.  The Democrat euphoria is likely to be quickly replaced with dispair when they realize they have been given the ultimate poison pill.

Fourth.  If States withdraw from Obamacare, as I predict, the only thing left will be the individual tax.  In other words they will get all the pain and none of the promise.

If you’re a supporter of Obamacare, you might rethink your celebration.  If you are opposed, there may be real joy in the morning and the morning may come sooner than you think.  Nothing will dismantle Obamacare faster than to have a majtority of states withdraw.

TDM