It’s now official.  All of those polls showing that Obama is leading Romney are worthless.  Last night every network, including Fox, started off their broadcasts with the expectation of a recall election that was too close to call.  But to anyone watching the actual results, it was obvious from the start that Scott Walker was winning and he was winning big.  What happened was that the media was conducting exit polls and they were predicting results based on those polls.  They weren’t even close.

There are several important lessons to learn from yesterdays recall election in Wisconsin.

1.  Scott Walker won big.  The unions took their best shot at him and missed.  He proved that a strong leader can make the difficult decision and not only survive, they can thrive.  He is now a superstar in American politics.

2.  Obama lost big.  His failure to support Tom Barrett hurt himself with the union vote all across the country.  Obama forced the unions to recognize that with Obama it is always just about him.  He didn’t campaign in Wisconsin because it didn’t benefit him.  He will pay a high price for this.

3.  Bill Clinton was elevated.  He reminded everyone that he, not Obama, is the real leader in the Democratic Party.  Watch for party leaders to put enormous pressure on Obama to replace Biden with Hillary.  Don’t be surprised if:  1.  Michelle Obama vetoes that or 2.  Hillary says no.

4.  Unions, particularly public sector unions, lost.  Scott Walker stared down the public sector unions, in a union state, and he won.  Membership in public sector unions has dropped precipitously in Wisconsin during the last year.   The standard union intimidation tactics no longer work.

5.  Don’t expect the liberal left to accept the results of the election.  Liberals only believe in Democracy when they get the results they want.  Scott Walker is already receiving death threats. 

6.  The CNN broadcast crew was in a state of shock last night.  They actually did a very good job in reporting the results and the significance of the results.  I view this as a distancing of themselves from Obama.

7.  All those polls, showing a close Presidential race are suspect.  We learned that people who hate the main stream media don’t talk to the main stream media.  That is why the exit polls were so wrong.  The majority of people willing to talk to the CNN folks with clipboards were liberal Democrats who were voting for the recall.  That is why CNN and everyone else thought the election was going to be close, until actual results showed that it wasn’t.  Every organization that has been taking political polls has to rethink their analysis. 

The exit polls showed Obama with a small lead over Romney.  But when these exit polls are adjusted to reflect the opinion of people who were not interviewed, the result is a toss up with Obama getting less than 50% of the vote.  Incumbents polling less than 50% almost always lose elections.  The undecideds typically go to the challenger.  At best, Wisconsin is now a toss-up state for Obama.  In reality, Wisconsin should probably be rated as “leaning Republican.”  No one wants to admit this because a Republican Presidential candidate hasn’t won in Wisconsin since 1984.  But then no one predicted Scott Walker either.

Final analysis.  The folks at MSNBC were practically weeping at the results.  They know what is coming in November.  Wisconsin confirmed their worst fears.  Best recommendation:  Invest in tissue, liberal Democrats will need lots of it in November.

TDM