There is a new poll out showing that the recall election in Wisconsin is now a dead heat. The poll is nonsense. Of course Democrats won’t admit this, because they are praying for a last minute miracle. Republicans won’t admit it either, because they need a massive Republican turnout. They can’t risk complacency.
The reality is that most of the polls have Walker up by at least 7% and even the vaunted Wisconsin Democratic vote stealing machine can’t overcome that kind of margin. It is too early to celebrate, that should wait until Tuesday night.
The only poll that matter is on Election Day, but the internal polls done by the political parties are pretty darn accurate. They don’t share them with anyone, but we can still tell what’s happening by watching how people respond.
Top Democrats, particularly within the Obama administration, are already trying to explain why Scott Walkers victory is not necessarily an indication of how Obama is doing. This means they think he is going to win. Top Republicans are saying it does reflect on Obama. That means they also think Walker is going to win. They could both be wrong, but this is what they think.
Bill Clinton made a last minute campaign stop to try and turn things around, or so it seems. But Clinton spent no time supporting Obama and barely mentioned Tom Barrett. Instead he took a shot at the tea party as “extremists who are hellbent on avoiding compromise.” It sure looks like Clinton was more interested in elevating Clinton than in promoting either Obama or Barrett.
So why did Clinton show up, even if he thinks Walker will win? That one is easy. He knows Obama doesn’t dare come near Wisconsin, because that would only help Walker. So this is a way for Clinton to point out that Obama was zero help for Wisconsin Democrats. Clinton is the master at this game. At the same time he said some nice things about Mitt Romney that directly contradict the Obama campaign strategy. He even said that Romney’s tenure at Bain Capital was “sterling.” Clinton came to Wisconsin on the Democratic campaign bus and promptly threw Obama under the wheels.
On the other hand, top Republicans have been showing up in droves. South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal have all campaigned for Walker. Keep in mind the following quote from JFK:
“Victory has a thousand fathers but defeat is an orphan.”
I must admit I hope Walker wins, so my opinion is hardly without bias. But, based on what we know, it sure looks like he is going to Walk on by.
TDM