Both parties are pretending that this is a close Presidential election. It isn’t. Democrats are saying it is going to be close because they don’t want to admit that Obama is in deep trouble. Republicans are saying it is going to be close because they want to avoid over confidence. But the reality is that Mitt Romney is far ahead and surging.
The real measure of a how things are trending is actual election results. Polls don’t matter but elections matter a lot. The next big day is in Wisconsin with the recall election against Governor Scott Walker. Although the unions were able to organize massive protests and they have spent a fortune slamming Walker, he is actually leading in all of the polls. In addition, his grass roots organization is incredibly strong. There are a lot of signs that things are turning around rapidly in the cheese state.
Scott Walker was elected Governor in November of 2010. He defeated Tom Barrett 52.29% to 46.52%. Walker is now leading Barrett in every recent poll. Since Walker is the incumbent and he has over 50% in almost every poll, something dramatic will be required for the recall election to succeed. At this point it is more likely that Walker will win by a larger margin than he did in 2010 than that he will be defeated.
Democrats know the importance of this race and I expect them to spend a fortune in a last ditch effort to turn this around. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Obama make an appearance. If Walker wins, this will send shockwaves across the political spectrum. This would make it impossible for Democrats to even pretend that Obama is not in trouble. Obama was counting on Wisconsin as being solidly in the win column. If he starts falling behind in states like Wisconsin, it means he is falling back all across the board.
Obama’s decision to support gay marriage was a huge mistake. He gained almost no additional support from gay activists, because he proposed nothing to actually make gay marriage legal At the same time he made it incredibly easy for Mitt Romney to explain why all those evangelicals need to united behind him. A recent poll in Florida showed a devastating impact for Obama. Fully 25% of Florida voters said this made them less likely to vote for Obama, while only 11 percent says it made them more likely to vote for him:
Now add in the Catholic Church filing 43 lawsuits against Obamacare and a perfect storm is brewing. I suspect that the Mitt Romney campaign knows this very well. I am also certain that this is a professionally run campaign and they aren’t about to take anything for granted. But it is now less than six months until the election and as Yogi Berra would say: “it’s getting late early.”
TDM
I believe the recall election here in Wisconsin is actually very close, and it is no sure thing that Walker will win. A lot of Republicans are very nervous about this race and the very real possibility that Barret could pull out a win due to voter fraud. Thousands of signatures on the recall petitions were fraudulent, and the liberals have a despicable record of cheating in Wisconsin elections. This recall election is a must-win for them, and they will stop at nothing to achieve victory. Our state had passed a voter i.d. law in order to prevent voter fraud, but the democrats filed law suits against it, and it is now conveniently held up in court–it will probably be resolved and become law before the November elections, but they will get away with their cheating ways in the recall election.
The good news is that not only did Walker win, he won by a bigger margin than in 2010. Sometimes, the good guys do win.
TDM