Following is the chart I intended to include in WHAT FAT LADY?  It got lost in the ether and I had to reconstruct it.

This is just a snapshot.   For example, none of the Iowa delegates are actually “required” to vote for anyone, since it is a non-binding caucus.  In addition, there are three delegates unassigned.   As of today, before the New Hampshire results,  Romney, Santorum and Paul each have 6 delegates, Gingrich has 4 delegates and Perry has 3 delegates.  

When you think about it, it is pretty pathetic to pretend someone is close to sewing up the nomination at this point.   Anything could happen.  Here is how it looks today:

Most unlikely to succeed gots to Newt Gingrich.  He is very unlikely to do well and he could drop as low as fifth, behind Romney, Paul, Huntsman and Santorum. 

Most likely to succeed is Mitt Romney.  He will probably win easily in New Hampshire.  If he does more than 38%, that will be very good.  If he drops down closer to 30%, it will be viewed as him losing momentum.

Huntsman could be a surprise.  He could even soar up to challenge Paul for second.  But if he does, he will be competing with Romney for the moderate vote.  My guess is third, slightly ahead of Santorum.

Santorum would require a Tebow type miracle to win.  He could come in fourth or even fifth, which would be devastating to him.

Santorum is certainly not surging any more.  since campaigns are usually headed up or down, he is probably headed down.

Paul probalby doesn’t care where he finishes.  He doesn’t even plan on winning the nomination.  He just wants enough delegates, from caucus states, so that he can have a voice on the Republican Party platform.

Rick Perry never even tried to compete, so if he does anything at all, it’s good for him. 

Gingrich’s strategy to attack Romney appears to be backfiring big time, since he continues to fall in the polls.  But he also appears to have drawn blood.  Keep in mind that regardless of results, he has $5 million available in his superpact, because of a large gift from billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson.  As long as he had money, Gingrich’s ego will probably keep him in the race.  He now appears to be on a kamikazi mission to destroy Romney.   Remember that only incompetent kamikazi operatives survive the mission.

It’s a longer way to Tipperary than the pundits admit.

Note:  Tipperary is a town in Ireland, not actually remote.  The song was apparently written by a lonely Irishman in London.  If anyone watched “Das Boot” it was a very popular song for the German sailors.  I doubt that any of them had any clue regarding the actual location of Tipperary.  

TDM