Most of the polls from Iowa are worthless. There is one exception, the Insider Advantage Poll. Most polls just call people and then extrapolate results. But the Insider Advantage surveys 391 people considered likely to actually participate in the Iowa GOP Caucus. Since the Caucus is not like a primary, there is often a huge difference between who is willing to show up for three hours on a cold night in January and those willing to spend five minutes at a polling booth. It is something that makes Iowa very special.
Latest results for the Insider Advantage Poll are in the following link:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2011/InsiderAdvantage_IA_1218.pdf
Here is how it looks to me:
Ron Paul is in first with 23.9%. He may win, but it won’t matter
Romney is in second at 18.2%. He is likely to end up with the same percentage, but he could slip back to third or lower.
Rich Perry is third with 15.5%. If this is accurate, that is a major surge. If this trend continues he could come in second or even win in Iowa. Coming in second to Ron Paul would be the same as a win.
Newt Gingrich is 12.9% and sinking like a stone. He could even fall further. If he finishes fourth or worse he is probably toast.
Michelle Bachmann is at 10.1%. She has devoted maximum effort in Iowa. She needs to come in first, second or a very strong third to continue. I don’t see that happening.
Rick Santorum is at 2.9%. Unless he improves significantly, this is the end. He has practically moved to Iowa. If he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere.
Jon Huntsman is at 3.8%. Huntsman is filthy rich so he doesn’t need Iowa, but at some point he has to show some signs of a pulse.
Obviously, things may change and the only poll that matters is the one taken in person at the Caucus on January 3. One thing is sure; the Iowa Caucus will have a major impact on this race. If Perry pulls this off, he will have been accurate when he referred to himself as the Tim Tebow of the 2012 Republican Presidential race.
TDM