In 1996, the Republican nominee was Bob Dole.  Most Republicans cringe at the memory of how Bill Clinton, who was extremely vulnerable, coasted to re-election over the lifeless Dole.  Of course the third party candidacy of Ross Perot sealed the deal for Clinton.  I wonder how many Americans realize that Bill Clinton never came close to winning a majority of the votes in any national election.

Bob Dole won the Iowa Caucus in 1996, but Republicans were not very impressed.  They desperately looked around for some other candidate.  But when they did they found Pat Buchanan and Steve Forbes.  (I am ignoring the rest of the field which included Arlen Specter and Phil Gramm – ouch!)  Ultimately, Republicans reluctantly united behind Dole because he was the only thing resembling a horse in the field.  We are close to a repeat of 1996 with Mitt Romney.  Most Republicans are less than thrilled with Mitt Romney as our candidate and are desperately seeking a viable alternative.  But so far the alternatives have rapidly self-destructed.  First it was Rick Perry, who stepped in it more than once and even had a brain freeze on national TV.  Then it was Herman Cain who somehow thought no one would notice his “women” problems and his obvious lack of knowledge with regard to foreign affairs.  Now it is Newt Gingrich whose campaign is imploding as we speak. 

That leaves Mitt Romney.  Ron Paul has zero chance because of his naïve and irresponsible view of foreign policy, particularly with regard to Iran.  Michelle Bachmann continues to have no chance.  Even those who agree with what she has to say often find her annoying.  Santorum lost his last election in Pennsylvania by 18 points.  It would be insane to think he could be a winning candidate on a national scale.  Jon Huntsman doesn’t appear to even want the job and he often sounds more like a Democrat than a Republican.  

So, Mitt Romney will ultimately win the nomination, unless Rick Perry rises from the ashes.  That seems unlikely, but who knows?  There have been recent hints of a small Perry surge.  Actually it wouldn’t take much.  He is currently in fourth place in Iowa.  If Perry even came in third it would change everything.  He doesn’t need to win, he just needs to convince people that he is still a factor. 

The following brief video from Politico actually does a pretty good job of analyzing things in Iowa:

 http://www.politico.com/driving-the-day/

 This is hard to call, but it is pretty obvious that Gingrich has gone down in flames and unless Perry emerges as a dark horse contender, we are on the same path as 1996, where a candidate no one wants gets the nomination because there is no real option.

 The good news is that Mitt Romney is not Bob Dole and I think he would win the election.  It is still a little disappointing to see the Republicans once again settle on a candidate primarily because of the weakness of the competition.

 One final comment, Rick Perry has NEVER lost an election.  His off the cuff comments at a church in Iowa yesterday were stunning:

 “Here is what I want you to leave with, somebody’s values are going to decide the issues of the day … somebody’s values are going to be installed. The question is going to be whose values? Is it going to be those of us of faith or somebody else’s values?”

 The true test of eloquence comes during those unscripted moments when a candidate just speaks from the heart.  This reminded me of when George W. Bush said:

 I can hear you, the rest of the world can hear you and the people who knocked these buildings down will hear from all of us soon.

 It would be foolish to underestimate Rick Perry.

 TDM