If you listen to the pundits on ABC, CBS, NBC, FOX, CNN et al, then you probably think Rick Perry is on the fast track to oblivion.  They have clearly written him off.  In most years they would be right.  His brain freeze during a national debate was painful to watch.  But, this is not a normal year and Perry is not a normal candidate.  He has never lost an election and the road to perdition is paved with people who underestimated him.  He has the added advantage of watching his opponents self-destruct.  Herman Cain is an intriguing guy, but he has made far too many mistakes to survive as a Presidential candidate.  Newt Gingrich has a long history of self-annihilation.  His bizarre decision to start talking about amnesty for illegal aliens bordered on suicidal.  It is almost as if Gingrich thinks he is so brilliant that he no longer cares what people think.  I like Gingrich, but will be surprised if he does not go down in self-inflicted flames.  Since no one in their right mind thinks Santorum, or Bachmann stand a snowball’s chance in Hell of winning against Obama, and since Ron Paul has the surrender monkey on his back that leaves Mitt Romney and Rick Perry.  (I am ignoring Huntsman because he is probably the only candidate more unacceptable to conservatives than Romney.  In addition, like it or not, he has the same Mormon problem that never quite goes away.)

It is hard to make a case for someone running in the single digits in the polls actually winning the nomination, but at this point the poll that counts the most is the money poll.  The votes that matter right now are from those people who are ready willing and able to fund a Presidential campaign.  If the following story is accurate, Rick Perry remains the only candidate, other than Romney, who appears capable of raising enough money:

http://www.kansascity.com/2011/11/23/3282231/rick-perrys-pouring-it-on-in-iowa.html

I watched the debate and Rick Perry more than held his own.  He didn’t score any knock out punches and he didn’t deliver any brilliant lines, but he looked competent.  He also showed a lot more personal knowledge about foreign affairs than expected.  Newt Gingrich always looks like the smartest guy in the room and this debate was no exception.  But he also looks like the most arrogant and snarkiest guy in the room. Perry wasn’t brilliant, but he was smart enough and he was far more impressive than Herman Cain.

Perry is pouring a lot of time and money into Iowa and he has the type of organization that can really work there.  If he comes in first, second or even third in Iowa it will change everything.

I really can’t possibly predict anything.  The whole process has been beyond bizarre.  But, as it was in the beginning, it always seems to end up with Mitt Romney and anybody but Romney (“ABR”).  If Gingrich self-destructs, as he has done so often in the past, people in the ABR crowd are going to be looking around for a horse to ride.  Unless someone else enters the race, with a lot of money and a competent organization, the only horse they are likely to see looks a lot like Perry.  Donald Trump is making noise about running again, but while he has the cash, he does not have the organization.  I really don’t see how anyone else, with the possible exception of Huckabee, could pull it off this late in the game.  Huckabee, for better or worse, appears to have hooked his wagon up to Romney.  So, if you follow the money, that leaves:  Rick Perry.  If he looks up to the task, this could get very interesting.  If he doesn’t measure up, say hello to President Romney

 Happy Thanksgiving.

TDM