One of my favorite TV moments involved a scene where Gomer Pyle and Sergeant Carter were trapped with a ticking bomb.  They finally got down to the last second and a decision had to be made.  There were two wires.  One wire was red and one was green.  Sergeant Carter asked Gomer which wire he would cut.  Gomer finally said he would cut the red wire.  Sergeant Carter immediately reached over the cut the green wire.  The bomb was disarmed.  Gomer asked the Sergeant why he bothered asking him which wire to cut.  Sergeant Carter replied:  “because the only thing I was sure about was that you would be wrong.”

 All those swing state polls are showing about 3 to 5 percent more Democrats and significantly less Independents.  Most of these polls, including the swing state polls, are showing Independents leaning strongly toward Romney.   This is the equivalent of a weather reporter predicting massive floods because of the lack of rain.

The main stream media has been wrong on almost every major story for months.  They are brilliant at drawing the wrong conclusion with deadly accuracy.  This is particularly apparently when they are reporting anything about Barack Obama.  That leads me to the same conclusion as Sergeant Carter.   The only thing I know for sure is that they are wrong.

TDM.

On January 23, 1968, the USS Pueblo was boarded by the North Koreans.  The ship was confiscated and crew members were held hostage. Some wondered how a U.S. intelligence ship could be captured by a North Korean sub-chaser and three torpedo boats.  The answer, unfortunately, is that we had another administration that sent people into hostile territory with totally inadequate security.

The Pueblo did have guns and ammunition, but the ammunition was stored below deck, the machine guns were unmanned and they were wrapped in cold weather tarpaulins. 

The rules of engagement were:

(…) Defensive armament (machine guns) should be stowed or covered in such manner so that it does not cause unusual interest by surveyed units. It should be used only in the event of a threat to survival (…)

The American people were never told the truth about the USS Pueblo.  The loss of this ship was a devastating blow to our national security.  I was working for the NSA at the time, and I heard people say that this would set our intelligence efforts back 50 years.  The most dangerous secret held by any intelligence community is to reveal what we know about the other side.  I personally doubt that Commander Lloyd Bucher knew the true value of that ship.  Access to intelligence is granted on a need-to-know basis, and it’s likely a majority of the crew on that ship did not know.  That would be consistent with my own experience, where the pilot of the aircraft flying us over enemy territory was not cleared to know anything about our activities in the back of the plane.  If he did know, he probably would have risked losing the entire crew before surrendering that ship.  Fortunately, in the case of the USS Pueblo, we did get these people back.

There are some people who do know the truth about the USS Pueblo.  The following link provides a hint:

http://www.usspueblo.org/Aftermath/NSA_Museum.html

For those who want to know the whole story, following is a link to an official NSA report on the event that was only released in 2010:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/32745614/National-Security-Agency-The-capture-of-the-USS-Pueblo-and-its-Effect-on-SIGINT-operations

The conclusion in this report is jaw dropping:

..the compromise, at least to the North Koreans, of information concerning the cryptologic community collection, processing and reporting operations and techniques on a world-wide basis is without precedent in the U.S. cryptologic history.

This is really the first time I have ever discussed what I knew about the Pueblo incident, because this was so highly classified.  I am only writing this limited amount now because the full NSA report has been released.

The assault on our Consulate in Libya has the potential to be almost as damaging.  The Obama administration already compromised National Security in its rush to exploit the death of Osama bin Laden.  If they had just kept this quiet for even a few days they might have rolled up al Qaeda operatives all over the world.  Just think about it.  They captured Osama bin Laden’s computers and his documents intact.  It was a priceless opportunity to harvest this information before al Qaeda even knew we had it.  Instead, the President of the United States couldn’t wait to rush to the nearest microphone and spike the football.

But if the following article is accurate, that may pale in comparison to the damage done by our failure to provide adequate security for the Consulate in Benghazi.  Although the death of a U.S. Ambassador is a real tragedy, we lost a lot more than that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/libya/9563831/US-consulate-attack-in-Benghazi-disrupted-major-intelligence-operation.html

We don’t know what documents were compromised.  We don’t know what cryptologic devices and codes were compromised.  There are already reports that the terrorists got lists containing our “friends” all over Libya.  Odds are many of those friends are now desperately trying to stay alive.  One will note that they have basically evacuated our Embassy in Tripoli.  Part of the reason may be that our entire intelligence operation in Libya was compromised.

In some ways, the Obama administration was extremely lucky.  There was a second attack, an apparent ambush, probably designed to capture critical personnel.  According to this report 30 “individuals” were rushed out of Libya and spread to hidden locations all over Europe.  It sure looks like we came very close to losing another group of highly trained intelligence operatives, like we did during the Pueblo incident.  Yet it does not appear as though the administration even bothered to secure the Consulate after the event.  A CNN reporter casually walked through the debris and found the Ambassador’s personal diary.  It doesn’t get any worse than that.

This is far worse than Watergate.  In Watergate the White House was covering up an idiotic attempt to spy on the DNC.   Perhaps the real question is why did anyone care?  Is there anyone naïve enough to think that both political parties aren’t spying on each other?  I mean Democrats got caught monitoring Newt Gingrich’s cell phone and Clinton allegedly let the NSA eavesdrop on Strom Thurmond.  But this isn’t about politics, it is about national security.  It is about an ongoing effort to stop al Qaeda.  This effort may have been seriously compromised by the gross negligence of this administration. 

There is zero chance we will learn the full truth about this disaster before the election.  We didn’t learn the full truth about the Pueblo for 42 years.  But one would hope that somehow enough of the story will reach sufficient people to eliminate the risk of re-electing Barack Obama. 

TDM

The Washington Post has published a definitive timeline of administration statements on the Libya attack.  This is devastating for the Obama administration:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/post/from-video-to-terrorist-attack-a-definitive-timeline-of-administration-statements-on-the-libya-attack/2012/09/26/86105782-0826-11e2-afff-d6c7f20a83bf_blog.html

The summary, by the Washington Post is beyond blunt:

We will leave it to readers to reach their own conclusions on whether this is merely the result of the fog of war and diplomacy — or a deliberate effort to steer the storyline away from more politically damaging questions. After all, in a competitive election, two weeks is a lifetime.

The Washington Post leaves no room for doubt.  Nearly everything said by this administration was obviously and indisputably wrong.  Obama himself held onto the “mob action” story line long after everyone else had given up.  The only real question is why.  At best, this is because of gross incompetence by the administration.  But mere incompetence is not a satisfactory explanation when there is a strong possibility of gross negligence and dereliction of duty.

The Washington Post knows this because they also described this as:

a case study of how an administration can carefully keep the focus as long as possible on one storyline — and then turn on a dime when it is no longer tenable.

The administration was engaged in a desperate and obvious effort to prevent honest inquiry.  When pressed, administration officials dismissed pointed questions by referring to an ongoing investigation.  How obvious does this have to get before the main stream media gets it?

We have a President of the United States who told the American people things that were not true.  The best explanation anyone can offer is that he is merely stupid.  Bill Clinton got away with this because it was “just about sex” and “nobody died.”  Well this wasn’t just about sex and as a matter of fact, people did die!

Perhaps the main stream media will fail to pick up on the seriousness of this, but don’t be surprised if this story goes stratospheric.  Remember that the most liberal anchor in the world will throw his or her mother under the bus for higher ratings.  CNN, for example, is desperate for viewers.  There are few stories with more potential than a deliberate cover-up with the explicit involvement of the President of the United States.  In addition, there are some very sharp and very determined Republicans in congress who know exactly what this means.  Thanks to the Washington Post, they just got a smoking gun document from an unimpeachable source.

Don’t be surprise to see some major Democrats join the chorus.  Some of them have already called for an investigation.  They will not be impressed to see the depth of the deception practiced by this administration.

It is hard to predict.  The main stream media has covered up for Obama so many times in the past that only a fool would predict them doing the right thing now.  But this time they have a smoking gun and dead Ambassador.  One thing is sure, if they don’t get on it this time, then their credibility has dropped below the level of any possible recovery.

TDM

NOTE:  I wrote this yesterday.  This morning there was the following report on Breitbart:

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Peace/2012/09/27/Obama-Libya-Lies-Collapse-Sen-Dems-Demand-Answers

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, chaired by Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., circulated a bipartisan letter addressed to Deputy Secretary of State Thomas Nides, asking for an “accounting of the attacks against U.S. missions in Egypt, Libya and Yemen,” according to a copy obtained by The Washington Examiner.

The lawmakers are also demanding to know whether the administration had any advance warnings of the Libyan attack and, if so, whether it had shared that information with U.S. personnel on the ground.

The letter marks the first time congressional Democrats have so directly expressed their dissatisfaction with the administration’s response to inquiries about the attacks, which resulted in the death of Ambassador Chris Stevens and three others and raised questions about U.S. security throughout the Middle East and Northern Africa.

A Kerry aide confirmed that the committee intended to enlist the support of Republicans and Democrats and said the letter would likely be sent Friday. Another aide told The Examiner that the panel’s 10 Democrats and nine Republicans plan to sign it.

This is a very significant development for several reasons.  This means there is a bi-partisan consensus that this is important, that there is growing evidence of gross negligence and that the administrations responses have been woefully inadequate.  It is also significant because John Kerry wanted to be Secretary of State during Obama’s second term.  I doubt that Kerry would do this unless he has made two important assumptions.  First, that Obama is unlikely to be re-elected.  Second, that this is so serious that national security trumps party politics.

The Democratic Party has been engaged in a massive voter registration drive for years. In their desperation to register more Democrats, they hired ACORN to do the job.  ACORN didn’t let little barriers like voter registration laws stand in their way.  That is why people like Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck can play a major role in this election.  In Nevada they were fined the maximum $5,000 for running a voter-registration program that paid cash incentives for signing up voters and they were caught forcing workers to meet quotas.

http://www.mynews4.com/news/local/story/ACORN-fined-5K-in-Nev-voter-registration-scandal/vydwxF0Cs0-QGQD848FUeg.cspx

According to the following report, ACORN has been caught submitting fraudulent voter registration cards in Arkansas, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Indiana, Michigan, Missouri, Minnesota, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.  No one in the main stream media noticed a pattern here:

http://www.rottenacorn.com/activityMap.html

One would think that this would give a huge, unfair advantage to Democrats in the current election cycle.  Perhaps the Republicans were running similar operations, but if so, they must be smarter because they didn’t get caught.  But, the real story here is that this didn’t work.  In spite of this massive, no holds barred voter registration effort the Democratic Party is hemorrhaging members.  Just think about how bad this would be if they weren’t cheating.  Cheating is bad enough, but cheating and still coming up short is more than a little embarrassing.  Following is an analysis of this by Politico, which is hardly a right wing website:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

The obvious trend is away from Democrats.  In some cases Republicans have gained.  In other cases Republicans have also slipped, but usually by less than Democrats.  But in almost every case, Democratic registration is down.  The only question is whether people switched directly to Republican without passing go and without collecting $200 or they switched to Independent.

So where did all the Democrats go, because they clearly aren’t registering to vote.  Oh…Oh…I know.  They didn’t have time to register because they were too busy answering phone calls from pollsters.

TDM

The main stream media is suddenly publishing polls that show Obama surging ahead in battle ground states.  The media is trumpeting these polls in an obvious attempt to encourage Obama supporters and discourage Romney supporters.  But facts are stubborn things and here are the facts:

The polling industry has lost all credibility.  The reason is quite simple.  It all depends on who answers the phone.  It doesn’t matter how many calls you make, if a significant percentage of people don’t answer the phone.  History has shown some very consistent trends.  Exit polls taken during an election are absolutely meaningless.  They always show Democrats doing much better than final results.  In 2004, exit polls had John Kerry winning Ohio.  He lost big.  In the Wisconsin recall election exit polls had this as a very close race.  Anchors told us this was going to be a long evening.  It wasn’t.  All the networks called the race for Governor Scott Walker within the first hour.

Exit polls ask people who have just voted how they voted.  It sure seems like this would be really accurate.  But it isn’t.  It isn’t because Democrats like to talk to people taking exit polls, but Republicans don’t.    The same thing is true for political polls that telephone a lot of people.  Republicans, who don’t want anything to do with those people doing exit polls, also don’t want anything to do with those people calling on the phone.

What really matters is this.  We already know that about 90% of Democrats will vote for Obama and 90% of Republicans will vote for Romney.  So far, the independent votes are leaning strongly toward Romney.  Most long term polls, taken over months and years, show a pretty consistent split of 35% Democrat, 35% Republican and 30% Independent.  If there is any movement, it is toward Republicans.

So, what matters is who actually votes.  The pollsters are obviously assuming that because Democrats are answering the phones, they will show up at the polls.  They think Democrats will surge to the polls in record numbers just like they did in 2008.  If that is true, Obama wins.  If it is not true, Romney wins.

Shortly after the polls closed in Florida in 2000, all the networks announced that, based on exit polls, Al Gore had defeated George Bush.  The media asked George Bush for a reaction.  He just smiled and said his people had been looking at their own data and he thought he would win Florida.  The main stream media was stunned.  I think they were expecting a concession speech.  So they started looking at actual results, rather than exit polls and they were stunned to find out that Bush was right.  That evening we went through that bizarre sequence where the networks first called Al Gore the winner, before the polls even closed, then changed it to too close to call, then called George Bush the winner, only to have Al Gore decide to contest the results.  The lesson here is that these campaigns have real data with real metrics and they KNOW how they are doing.  George Bush knew he was doing a lot better in Florida than indicated by those exit polls.  He was right and the main stream media ended up with egg all over their face.

When the Romney campaign was confronted with these polls, they just smiled and said:  we are confident in our own data.  It reminded me of George Bush.

TDM

In order to understand this election, we have to look back at 2008.  Obama won several states that had voted for Bush in 2004.  Those states were:

Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida. 

All of the above states are considered toss-ups in this election cycle, with the possible exception of New Mexico.  In addition, two more states have been added to the toss up category:

Wisconsin, New Hampshire

Romney has three states that are only “leaning” Romney instead of “safe” Romney.  Those states are Arizona, Missouri and Indiana.

Obama has three states that are only “leaning” Obama instead of “safe” Obama.  Those states are Pennsylvania, Michigan and New Mexico.

Wisconsin, significantly, has moved from “safe” Obama to “tossup.”

So, let me summarize.  The election in 2008 showed a large number of states switching from Republican (Bush) to Democrat (Obama).  Since Obama is not assured of winning any of those states, they are considered tossups.  (The only exception is New Mexico, which may be leaning Obama).  Two more states have been added to the tossup list, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.  No state, won by McCain in 2008 is considered a tossup state in this election cycle.  This means all the movement is away from the 2008 results.  Yet almost all of the polls are based on 2008 results, although Rasmussen uses a blend between 2004 and 2008.  No one is using 2010 turnout.

That just may be a major mistake, because there is strong evidence of a major change in demographics since 2008.    Gallup measures Party affiliation and this has been showing a strong move toward Republicans over the past four years:

http://www.theatlanticcities.com/politics/2011/11/increasingly-republican-states-america/356/

The percent of people who now consider themself as leaning Republican has increased in 47 out of 50 states.  In 20 of these states the increase is by 5 points or more.  Gallup only found three states where the percent of people leaning Republican decreased.  Those states were Georgia, Arizona and Mississippi and this was by less than 1%.  By the way, these are all “safe” Romney states.

Yet all the turnout models used in the recent polls are predicting a higher Democratic turnout than a Republican turnout, because that is what happened in 2008.  Incredibly some polls are showing Obama leading with Romney winning the independent vote.  It is hard to imagine Obama winning this election if he does not win the independent vote.

The bottom line is that the numbers don’t add up.  Either Gallup was full of crap in November of 2011, or a lot of people have switched back from Republican to Democrat in the last 12 months, or the recent polls totally lack credibility.

There are no guarantees in life or elections, but one thing is clear.  Somebody is really wrong.  Either Gallup was really wrong in November of 2011, or the polls are wrong now.  We will know shortly.

TDM

The Tea Party is going to have a major impact on this election, but not in the way people expect.  Neither of the political parties understands the Tea Party movement.  Neither does anyone in the main stream media.  They are confused because the Tea Party is not a political party and it doesn’t have any official leaders.  No single organization really represents the Tea Party.  The Tea Party is a movement, not an organization.  This is something that hasn’t been seen in this country for a long time.  There is now huge network of people not overly concerned about any political party or any particular politician.  They are motivated by a set of principles and ideas that transcend all of the above.  These principles are simple, but very powerful.  One is the belief in a smaller, less intrusive government.  Another is a conviction that the Constitution really matters and our elected officials have a duty to be restrained by it.  Finally, they believe that government is spending too much money and wasting it.

Thanks to modern technology, the Tea Party has miraculously morphed into a powerful nationwide movement totally independent of any organization or politician.  Yet it is still capable of having a major impact on elections.  This started with some loosely organized demonstrations in 2010, primarily intended to protest high taxes.  That is how the name developed.  The modern Tea Party is motivated by the same things that motivated the original Tea Party.  But this didn’t follow the traditional pattern of political movements.  This is not another arm of the Republican Party, as naively believed by many in the main stream media.  It also isn’t a new political party.  There is no Tea Party “Party.”  That is why RINO Republicans were defeated in primary elections.  The replacements are still Republicans, but they are Republicans who know that failure to be guided by the core principles described above will result in a very short political career.   It may surprise Democrats to learn that Tea Party members would welcome them too.  But as of now the Tea Party is all too aware of one simple reality.  While the Republican Party is not necessarily its friend, the Democratic Party is for most purposes, its enemy.  The important thing to remember is that the Tea Party believes that politicians work for us, not vice versa.  It is far less worried about what politicians say and more concerned with what they do.

I would probably describe the Tea Party as this vast conservative cloud.  Information moves within the cloud at the speed of light, but it is guided by the power of the message, not the popularity of the messenger.  The result is astonishing to watch.  During the primary elections last spring, some RINO Republicans learned about the power of the Tea Party the hard way.  Candidates with strong support from the Republican establishment found themselves losing in primary elections to relative newcomers.  But the real strength of the Tea Party started to show up in local elections with national impact.  The best example was the recall election against Governor Scot Walker.  Several organizations developed hard hitting ads supporting Scot Walker and then funded them by appealing to the vast Tea Party cloud.  The results were shocking.  Suddenly political ads were not generated by professional staff wearing green eye shades in cigar filled rooms, but rather by political entrepreneurs.  It is really simple.  If you build it, they will fund.  If you deliver a top quality hard-hitting ad, you will find plenty of people willing to donate to your cause.  If you develop a mediocre ad you will get very little funding.  It is like an American Idol contest for campaign ads.  In a way, the Tea Party has become the perfect political test market.

What is about to happen is that there are going to be some very power ads floated out there on the Tea Party cloud.  Effective ads, promoted by people who can deliver results, will generate massive amounts of funding overnight.  Some of these ads will go where angels and Republican fear to tread.  There are a lot of people out there who think that Barack Obama is a threat to the very existence of our democracy.  They are terrified that Republicans will bungle this and lose to possibly the worst President in U.S. history because of their own incompetence.  They believe that many people voted for Barack Obama in 2008 because they did not know the truth about his personal history.  They are determined to prevent this from happening again.  There are literally millions of people across this country primed to pull a Peter Boyle.  They are mad as hell and they’re not going to take it anymore.  If Mitt Romney is unwilling or unable to explain the problem, they will explain the problem.   A lot of them are less than enthusiastic about Mitt Romney, but they are off the charts in their determination to get rid of Obama.  Ultimately they will show up in droves to vote him out of office.  But they will do more than that.  This grass roots network is going to result in some of the most devastating political ads in our nation’s history.

The liberal media naively thinks they are the only ones who can decide what matters in this election season.  That is why they view Mitt Romney’s statement about the Libya crisis as a major blunder while ignoring the real story of a failed foreign policy and gross negligence in protecting our Ambassador.  It is why they think that Mitt Romney pointing out, correctly,  that nearly half the people in the U.S. “are” living off the taxes paid by the other half is a political blunder.  They really think they that they alone will decide what matters in this election.  That was never totally true, but the main stream media has had a major role in prior elections.  But things have changed since 2008.  The big boys like CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN and even Fox News aren’t so big anymore.  They still talk, but far fewer people listen.  The audience tuned into that Tea Party cloud is far larger than all of them combined.

The Tea Party movement is a storm cloud for Democrats and anyone else who supports Barack Obama.  I believe this cloud will generate hurricane force winds that will blow the Democratic establishment right out of office.  But be advised.  Although this storm is currently favoring Republicans, for the reasons stated above, ultimately, it is a bi-partisan cloud.  If Republicans don’t start listening, and more importantly, start acting, the next storm will be directed at them.

TDM

I know some of you are worried about the polls purportedly showing Obama leading Romney.  None of the polls, including the Fox News polls have a shred of credibility.  Here is the data you actually need to evaluate this election.

How many Democrats vs. Republicans are there in the United States today and how should we expect them to vote?

Answer:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Gallup 27% Republican 35% Democrat and 36% Independents in 2012

Gallup interviews about 1,000 people each day.  These are done by telephone. The following link shows the Gallup methodology:

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110380/how-does-gallup-daily-tracking-work.aspx

Gallup asks a lot of questions.  If you want to see the questions they ask, there is a link to that on the above link to gallup.com.  I personally believe that the type of questions asked by Gallup will almost always result in over-sampling of Democrats.  Historical trends support that conclusion.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

Rassmussen 37.6% Republican  33.3% Democrat  29.2% Independent

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

Gallup uses phone banks, boiler rooms and operator assisted technology. Rasmussen has an automated survey process that makes sure that every respondent hears the same question, from the same voice with the same inflections.  It also runs back up surveys to make sure that the results are consistent with the results of their automated survey.

Rasmussen has proved to be extremely accurate at predicting actual turnout, while Gallup tends to estimate Democrats.  For example:  in 2010 Rasmussen predicted 36% Republican, 35% Democrat and 29% Independent.   Gallup had 29% Republican, 40% Democrat and 29% Independent.  This was the election when Democrats were swept out of power in the House and lost several seats in the Senate during in a nationwide Democratic election disaster.  The actual results were 35% Republican, 35% Democrat and 30% Independent, almost identical to what Rasmussen predicted.

Smart people who actually study elections realize the significance of this data:

http://www.examiner.com/article/voter-affiliation-not-polling-points-to-a-romney-win-november?CID=obinsite

Even if Gallup is right, Obama is behind.  Almost every poll has Romney ahead with Independents by a margin ranging between 10 and 14 points.  On the other hand, those recent polls show Obama winning the election without winning among independents.  That is ludicrous.  So, unless Democrats show up in droves and Republican sit this one out, Obama loses.

Unless you believe that a high percentage of Republicans have recently decided to switch parties, these polls cannot possibly be accurate.  Unless you believe Obama, contrary to almost every other poll, is way ahead with Independents, these cannot possibly be accurate.   Unless you believe Democrats are so excited at the chance to re-elect Obama that they will surge to the polls in unprecedented numbers, these polls cannot possibly be accurate.

I expected a rapid change in polls for several reasons.  One is that, contrary to coverage in the main stream media, this was a very bad week for Obama.  The media was totally focused on the alleged blunder by Mitt Romney.  Romney said he was outraged at the attack on our Embassy and Consulate and he was shocked that the first response by Obama administration was to apologize to the people who attacked us.   The main stream media immediate pounced as if this was the worst mistake in human history.  In the meantime if they had just looked over their shoulder they would have seen maps showing the entire Mideast on fire because of Obama’s inept handling of foreign affairs.  My hunch is that the American people paid a lot more attention to those horrible pictures than to the pompous spin from the liberal elite.

Today Gallup released a new poll and it is devastating news for Obama.  The so-called lead has disappeared.  What matters most in any poll is the trend and the trend is away from Obama and toward Romney.  This is the classic pattern that happens in nearly every election with incumbents.  If people haven’t decided to support the incumbent by now, they are never going to support him or her.  Obama isn’t getting close to 50% he needs and that alone spells big trouble for him.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx

But I also suspect that this poll, like almost every other recent poll, has over-sampled Democrats.  If Gallup really believes that 27% of voters are Republican and 40% are Democrat, than it believes that only about 27% of Independents are for Obama and 80% are for Romney.  You know this because Gallup would expect Obama to be getting 40% just from Democrats.  So the remaining 7% has to come from Independents.  That would mean Obama is getting about 7 points of the 26 total points available from Independents who have made up their minds.  On the other hand Gallup would expect Romney to get about 27% from Republicans and the remainder or 19% from Independents.  That would show Romney getting 73% of the Independent vote, with about 27% of independents undecided.

The Gallup data is highly suspect, and it is clearly exaggerating the support for President Obama.  The point is that you should not pay much attention to meaningless polls and keep focused on the underlying demographic data.  If Rasmussen is right, and history shows that he is, than Obama has to win a majority of Independent votes or he loses.  So far, there is little evidence that he is doing that.  Keep in mind that Democrats are bitching and moaning about all those new voter ID laws suppressing Democratic vote.  If they are right, this makes the demographics even worse for Obama.

The main stream media is dominated by liberals who are desperate to see Obama win.  They have been lying to you about nearly everything for years.  They have failed to cover the glaring problems with Obama’s personal history while showcasing every Romney flaw in high definition.  Why on earth would you believe them now when they try to convince you that Romney is losing?  That is what they want you to believe.  Wise people don’t rely on the main stream media for accurate information about anything, particularly this election.

TDM

Today, I will let Presidential spokesman, Jay Carney write my blog.  This is hopelessly naive:

CARNEY: We also need to understand that this is a fairly volatile situation and it is in response not to United States policy, and not to, obviously, the administration, or the American people, but it is in response to a video, a film that we have judged to be be reprehensible and disgusting. That in no way justifies any violent reaction to it, but this is not a case of protests directed at the United States writ large or at U.S. policy, this is in response to a video that is offensive to Muslims.

Again, this is not in any way justifying violence, and we have spoken very clearly out against that and condemned it. And the president is making sure in his conversations with leaders around the region that they are committed as hosts to diplomatic facilities to protect both personnel and buildings and other facilities that are part of the U.S. representation in those countries.

No matter what CNN, ABC, CBS, MSNBC or anyone else says, those pictures of our embassies on fire, our flag on fire and violent mobs screaming death to America are impossible to ignore.  This administration is about to learn an important lesson about this country.  During a time of crisis, the American people will unite around a leader.  President Obama could have cruised to re-election if he had shown a shred of leadership.  Instead, they are still pretending that this is only about one film, that no one has actually seen.  This administration is hopelessly naive.  I have noticed lately that a lot of people are rapidly moving from being disgusted with the Obama administration to: “enough is enough!”  I believe there is going to be a nationwide backlash against the Obama administration for its pathetic response to these assaults on our country.  If there is not, then this election probably doesn’t matter, because we are doomed anyway.  If we re-elect President Obama after this, we deserve our fate.

Enough is enough!

TDM

Christians in the United States have become used to being the subject of insults.  For example in 2004 there was a move called:  Saved!  Following is a description of that film:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saved!

Although “Saved!” was unique in that it was totally dedicated to slamming Christianity, Hollywood has been insulting Christians for decades.  Bill Maher has made an entire career out of insulting Christians.  The liberal left instantly tells any Christian who dares complain to take a chill pill.

Yet if someone says anything negative about Islam, they are immediately rebuked by the liberal left.  Suddenly free speech isn’t free if it insults someone’s religious beliefs.   That is, unless the person is a Christian.  It is always ok to insult Christians.

Both President Obama and Hillary Clinton went out of their way to rebuke the inflammatory film that allegedly filled so many people with rage.  In some ways this is laughable, because no one can even identify the exact film in question.  Apparently all the excitement is about a 13 minute trailer for a film that may or may not exist.

Our current foreign policy is nothing more than rewarding people for bad behavior.  The Muslim world routinely erupts in violence at the hint of an insult to Islam.  The Obama administration responds by focusing more on the alleged insult than the violent reaction.  The angrier they get, the louder the apology.  In Egypt, we apologized before the protestors had time to organize.  If this was intended to calm things down, it obviously didn’t work.

For several years the United States has had an official policy of refusing to negotiate with kidnappers.  This is because we know that if you reward kidnappers by giving them what they want, you just end up with more kidnappers.  Rewarding people for bad behavior always encourages more bad behavior.  President Obama did not create the outrage in the Arab world, but his policies have encouraged it.

When Mitt Romney released his statement on Tuesday, it was more than two hours after the attack in Libya and more than 8 hours after the intrusion into our embassy in Egypt.  Yet, as of the time he spoke, there was no official US statement from either the White House or the State Department.  The only thing resembling an official response was those idiotic tweets from the Cairo Embassy.

Today President Obama threw the Cairo Embassy staff members under the bus pretending that it was they who made the mistake.  He forgave them because they were under stress.  No one at CNN thought to ask the WH why, if it didn’t consider those statements to be a problem, was it working so hard to walk them back?

CNN is continuing to pretend that it was Romney who made a huge mistake.  Romney, to his credit, is not backing down.  Ultimately the truth will come out and that will help Romney.  There are riots at our embassies all over the world and the scenes are more than disturbing.  Obama’s foreign policy is in shambles and the fruits of his labors are highly visible on the nightly news no matter how they spin it.

TDM