The Republican debate tonight is almost certain to be a fiasco.  Several of the candidates are openly bragging about how they are going to challenge Donald Trump.  Good luck with that.  Trump is a master at this game and those who attack him are likely to get embarrassed.   The problem is that they are predicting that Trump will respond rationally.  But Trump isn’t wired that way.   He will respond in ways they cannot possibly expect.

The big loser is likely to be CNN.  There will be a lot of gotcha questions which will make CNN look pathetic.  The smart move would be to play it straight and stick to the issues.  I doubt that the CNN moderators are even capable of pulling that off.

One of the reasons Rick Perry made an early exit in the race is that he attacked Trump.  The more people attack Trump the better he looks.  People like a fighter and Trump is the ultimate fighter.  The wise move is to stay above the fray and let the other candidates self-destruct.  Ted Cruz and Ben Carson are likely to do that.  I doubt that Trump will attack Cruz.  He may attack Carson, but that could be a huge mistake, particularly if Carson ignores the bait and refuses to fight back.

The expectations for Carly Fiorina are sky high, which makes her very vulnerable.  By the way, check out the following article in the Weekly Standard.  Guess who’s coming to dinner?  Guess who is considering another run for President?  Check out the following:

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/jerry-brown-considering-running-president_1031871.html

“I’m not as hasty as I was as a younger candidate or a younger elected official,” Brown continued. “I’m enjoying the luxury of being on the sidelines, watching these shows tonight, watching the parade, and where I can be helpful, I’ll jump in at the appropriate time.”

Translation…none of the current or proposed Democratic candidates have a chance at winning a general election.  When that become obvious even to the Kool-Aid drinking liberal left, Jerry will be ready, willing and able to jump in.

TDM

Obviously, my timing with regard to the Rick Perry article was brilliant.  He was probably in the process of withdrawing while I was typing.   I am not disappointed that Perry will not be the nominee.  I always thought that was a long shot.  What is depressing is that once again we are on the path to choosing a nominee for President in the worst possible way.  Donald Trump is entertaining but it is frightening to think of him being President.  Granted, anything would be better than Obama, but Donald Trump is the arch typical loose cannon.  Ben Carson is in second place.  He is a brilliant doctor and a very nice guy, but he doesn’t have any executive experience at all.  This means the top two Republican candidates at the moment are there almost entirely because of their celebrity status.  Donald Trump literally has 100% name recognition and so far nothing else matters.  The only solace at this point is that the worst Republican candidate is far better than the best Democratic candidate.

I watched the campaigning this week lurching from laughing out loud to throwing up.  Thanks God for Democrats.  Hillary’s latest effort to move past the “made up” e-mail scandal is beyond pathetic.  The end is near.  Even Democrats realize this, which is why people are actually encouraging Joe Biden.  Joe Biden?  If Democrats can’t do better than Joe Biden it is hard to imagine them winning anything.

I still predict that…Jerry Brown, Governor of California, 76 years old, will be the Democratic nominee because he will be the only Democratic candidate who won’t lose every state.  Let’s face the truth.  When the following people are top candidates for President of the United States:  Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden and, gasp, Jerry Brown it is hard to be optimistic.  If we are this stupid we deserve our fate.

Not one of these people is remotely qualified to be President of the United States.  But that no longer matters.  What matters is “name recognition.”  This is beyond pathetic.  Listen closely. Do you hear that?  It is the rest of the world convulsed with laughter.  Is it really possible, they ask, that the American people, the nation that literally conquered the world has descended to such a level of mass stupidity?  The answer quite simply is how else do you explain how someone like Barack Obama was elected President of the United States, not once, but twice?  When you are done answering that, try to explain why we are considering replacing him with Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden, or God help us, Jerry Brown.   When Jerry Brown looks like a realistic alternative, all hope is gone.  I rest my case.  Good night.

TDM

I read the following article from Bloomberg in a near state of shock.  This is saying the same thing I wrote about Rick Perry several weeks ago.

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-09-09/rick-perry-s-chances-are-better-than-trump-s

Everyone expects Perry to drop out, but in reality he remains the candidate with the best credentials for doing the job.  I hope he does not drop out, but fear that is likely to happen.  I was beginning to question my own judgment when I said he still had a chance.  It was a shock to discover that someone else actually agrees with me.  Will wonders never cease?

Donald Trump has sucked all the oxygen out of the room.  For a long time I thought he had zero chance of actually winning the nomination.  However, after his incredible ability to survive major mistakes almost anything seems possible.  I still suspect that at some point he will self-destruct.  In the meantime he is literally trashing the field.  He has already destroyed Jeb Bush and all of the other top tier candidates, other than Ben Carson and Ted Cruz, look pathetic .  I am not sure Donald Trump can win this, but he can certainly destroy a lot of other candidates in the process.  The big advantage for Rick Perry at this point is that Donald Trump is ignoring him as insignificant.  Sometimes being ignored is a good thing.

Ted Cruz has figured this out, which is why he hasn’t attacked Trump.   Trump is too smart to take on Ben Carson.  Everyone else is fair game.  The next debate is likely to be a hot mess.  I expect all of the other candidates to be on a mission to destroy Donald Trump.  Trump will play the Trump card with a lot of skill.  At a minimum it will be fun to watch.

The person who has the most to lose is Carly Fiorina.  The expectations for her are sky high and she may have trouble delivering.  Keep in mind that she was trounced by Barbara Boxer when she ran for the Senate.  While she did a nice job during the first debate, she actually wasn’t all that spectacular.  It was just that people were expecting next to nothing and they were shocked at how well she performed.  That won’t happen again.

In the meantime, Perry will be on the second panel and he is likely to do pretty well.  He actually did well in the first debate but no one noticed because all the attention was on Carly Fiorina.  He won’t have that problem this time.  At some point, hopefully, the silly season will end and Republicans will start looking for a candidate actually qualified for the job.  It is hard to be optimistic about this when considering past choices like John McCain and Mitt Romney, but I am reminded that Democrats still consider Hillary Clinton to be a good candidate.  Even RINO Republicans have a difficultly reaching that level of stupidity.

On November 7, 1962, Richard Nixon gave a press conference after losing the California Governor’s race to Edmund Brown.  It was beyond pathetic and the next day Howard K. Smith hosted a documentary titled “the Political Obituary of Richard Nixon.”  No one, including Richard Nixon, thought he would even try to win another election.  He was a dead as a candidate could ever be.  Yet somehow Nixon recovered from this and went on to win two elections as President of the United States.  It is a reminder that it’s never over until it’s actually over.

TDM

Once again the main stream media is screwing things up.  How many stories have you seen about this unfortunate TV reporter and her camera man that were shot to death during a live broadcast?  I can understand why this story is impossible to ignore.  But the problem is that they are also doing a lot of coverage on the shooter.  His picture has been posted all over the place making him famous for all the wrong reasons.   Without a doubt there are other nut cases all over the country watching this and saying:  “what a great idea.”  It won’t be long before someone tries doing this to another TV reporter on live TV.  It would have been far better if they had refused to show his picture or even mention his name.  He does not deserve this kind of attention.  He deserved to be ignored.

The sports broadcasters have figured this one out.  If you are watching a sport broadcast and someone runs out on the field odds are the broadcasters will not show it.  They will deliberately point the cameras in another direction and refuse to give this person undeserved air time.  This strategy has worked and these incidents are becoming increasingly rare.  It is too bad the main stream media has not figured this out.

If I were the general manager for a TV station or a broad casting network I would already be taking precautions.  I would seriously considering sending out an armed guard every time there was a remote broadcast.  It is a shame that this is necessary, but it is necessary.  This will happen again and the main stream media deserves some of the blame.  If we keep glorifying the wrong people we just get more of them.  Sometimes silence is golden.

TDM

Barry Goldwater once quoted an ancient Arab saying:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camel%27s_nose

 “If the camel once gets his nose in the tent, his body will soon follow.”

Goldwater was speaking out against the National Defense Education Act which passed in 1958.  He was right, by the way.  The rest of the quote is very prophetic:

If adopted, the legislation will mark the inception of aid, supervision, and ultimately control of education in this country by the federal authorities.

Today there is another example of the Camel’s Nose.  This time it has to do with Hillary’s e-mails.  As I have written before, the relationship with Hillary Clinton and Huma Abedin is very troubling.  Newsmax is reporting that the reason the FBI suddenly demanded access to Hillary’s e-mail servicer is that classified e-mails sent on Hillary’s server by Huma Abedin surfaced.  Hmmmm.

http://www.newsmax.com/Headline/huma-abedin-hillary-emails-fbi/2015/08/19/id/670827/

Michelle Bachmann had the courage to speak out on this issue.  Sadly, she was scornfully dismissed by people who should know better, including John McCain. Following is an article explaining why Michelle Bachmann was concerned.

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/where-is-huma-abedins-security-clearance-form/

The Camel’s nose sure appears to be very interested in e-mails sent by Huma Abedin. This may matter far more than anyone realizes.

TDM

A lot of people, including me, thought that the Donald Trump Presidential campaign was a joke.  I really didn’t think he would ever be the front runner.  I am still unconvinced that he can win it all, but he has already done more than anyone predicted.  I suddenly realized this was very similar to when Arnold Schwarzenegger ran for Governor of California.  When you think about it, Arnold’s candidacy was a big joke from day one.  He announced his decision on Jay Leno and it looked absurd.  Arnold had zero qualifications for the job, other than the fact that he was a big celebrity.  It turned out that this was more than enough.  Arnold not only won election, he easily won re-election.   He was a superstar and ultimately when a “nobody” runs against a “somebody”, somebody always wins.  I call it the Arnold Syndrome.

We have already seen this on the Democratic side.  Hillary Clinton’s campaign is a total joke, but her celebrity status has sucked all the oxygen out of the room.   Only Hillary can prevent Hillary from getting the nomination.  Fortunately for the country and the world she seems destined to do exactly that.  Watch for Democrats to desperately search for another celebrity to replace Hillary.  If they had such a candidate now, she would already be gone.

If Donald Trump was not a huge celebrity, his campaign would already be over. He has made more serious mistakes than the rest of the candidates combined.  But he is bigger than life and all of the other candidates fade into the background when he is around.  At this point the only person who can defeat Donald Trump is Donald Trump.  He has a lot of baggage, but a lot less baggage than Hillary Clinton.  Arnold Schwarzenegger had a lot of baggage too.  No one noticed.  They were too busy buying “Gubernator” tee shirts.

So, once again, both political parties appear to be ready to choose a President basted on the worst possible criteria: “who is the biggest celebrity.”  The Arnold Syndrome.

TDM

On November 14, 1940, the German Luftwaffe launched a massive bombing attack on Coventry.  Over 60,000 buildings were destroyed.

http://www.historiccoventry.co.uk/blitz/stats.php

It has long been rumored that Winston Churchill knew about the bombing in advance because British Intelligence had broken the German code.  There were over 300,000 people living in Coventry, yet there was no attempt to beef up defense or even evacuate the city.  Some people believe that Winston Church allowed this to happen because he felt that it was more important to not let Germany know Britain had broken their code.

The Battle of Midway was won in large part because Navy cryptographers had broken parts of the Japanese Naval code.  They alerted Admiral Nimitz of the plan by Japan to invade Midway.  The U.S. victory at Midway turned the tide in the Pacific War.

These are two examples of why signals intelligence is so important.  When I was attached to the NSA we were reminded that the most vital information to protect is the information “what we know about the other side.”  Everyone knows that both sides are spying on each other.  That is not news.  Both the Germany and the Japan knew our troops were listening to them.  What they did not know was what we learned from this intelligence.  They did not know that their codes have been compromised.

This is why it really matters that one of the e-mails sent on a private server belonging to Hillary Clinton contained SI or signals intelligence.  If Hillary allowed our enemies to learn what we know about them that would do incalculable damage to national security.  That is why most people charged with failure to protect signals intelligence end up in jail.  This is not a minor problem.  It is not a partisan witch hunt.  It is far more important than that.  Just ask the people who were in Coventry in November 1949.

TDM

The best defense Hillary Clinton has available with regard to the e-mail scandal is that she is merely stupid, not a criminal.   Does anyone believe that the Secretary of State never sent an e-mail with classified information?  Please!  This is beyond bad.  This is mind numbingly bad.  It is no surprise that Hillary is corrupt, we already knew that.  It is no surprise that she conducted a cover-up; she has done that many times before.  It is not even a surprise that she would do something so stupid.  She has proven that before too.  What is shocking is that anyone ever seriously considered this woman to be a legitimate candidate to be President of the United States. What is beyond shocking is the realization that a significant percentage of the American people would still vote for her to be the next President.  Fortunately, that number is dwindling by the date and that sound you hear is the death rattle of the Hillary Clinton for President Campaign.

How bad is it?  It is so bad that most of the Republican candidates aren’t even bothering to comment on the story.  They don’t need to. They know when a Campaign is destroying itself even RINOs, genetically predisposed to losing elections, are too smart to get in the way of that.

This reminds me of the story where a major league ball player started his slide into home plate too late and ended up about ten feet short of home plate.  As the umpire called him out, he whispered:  “pretend you’re hurt.”  I predict, again, that Hillary is on the verge of an unexpected illness that will require her to suspend, not end, her Presidential Campaign.  She almost has to do that or she may not make it to Labor Day.  Her only chance, at this point, is to let people like Bernie Sanders and Martin O’Malley try to out liberal each other.  This will be the ultimate race to the bottom. Then a rigged Democratic convention would draft Hillary and she would courageously leap from her sick bed to save the day.  She would only have to campaign for about six weeks and the first four weeks would be spent watching the main stream media ignore the obvious and promote her coronation.

The problem is that this is so bad that even this act of desperation probably wouldn’t work.  People are on to Hillary and that is really bad for her.  She may not have a clue, but more and more American’s do.  Donald Trump is unlikely to win the Presidency, but he has already put a stake in the heart of the Jeb Bush campaign.  This means we won’t have to endure a Jeb Bush, Hillary Clinton campaign after all.  You might say the entire country has managed to Duck a Dynasty.

TDM

So far, Rick Perry is the invisible candidate.  Just today there are reports that he is no longer able to pay his staff.  Some in the media think the end is near.  They could be right.  They could also be very wrong.  I am reminded that in the summer of 2007, the John McCain campaign was in meltdown.  He was invisible in the polls.  He stopped paying his staff and his top aides were deserting him.  I was convinced that John McCain was done as a candidate for President.  I was wrong.  McCain ultimately won the nomination because it came down to three candidates, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain.  While Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney rained on each other’s parade, McCain snuck in the back door.  He turned out to be a lousy nominee, but the point is that in the summer of 2007 no one, and I mean no one, even gave him a chance at the nomination.

Perry has to do something, sooner rather than later, but he is not dead yet.  This is the era of the Super Pac and while Perry’s campaign has run out of money, the Super Pac supporting him has a ton of cash.   I firmly believe that of the seventeen candidates, at least 12 of them are wasting their time because they have zero chance of winning the nomination.  I will start with Donald Trump.  While he is soaring in the polls, it is only because the vote is being split 17 ways.  At some point Donald will be up against only one or two opponents and then the negatives will take over.  I doubt seriously that Trump can win this.  I also doubt that any of the following can win the nomination, for a lot of reasons: Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, George Pataki, Rand Paul, and Rick Santorum.  That leaves only five candidates with a realistic chance at being the next President.

These are Ted Cruz, John Kasich, Rick Perry, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker.  Right now Perry is gasping for air, but that is because the room is filled by 12 candidates with no real chance at the nomination sucking the air out of the room.  No one seems to notice that Rick Perry has the most impressive resume in the room.  All anyone can remember is that he went brain dead on national TV.  That is a huge mistake.  Perry is a very capable man and has a very significant record of accomplished leadership.

I really like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz and Scot Walker, but in my personal opinion all of them are too young.  Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio are only 44 years old and Scott Walker is only 47.  In eight years, the oldest of the group will only be 55.  What on earth does one done when he is done being President at age 55?  Think Teddy Roosevelt and the disaster of the Bull Moose Party that put Woodrow Wilson in the White House.  On the other hand, if they don’t make it this time, they will still be young enough to try again in eight years and again in sixteen years.  As for Ted Cruz, I want him on the Supreme Court, not in the White House.

I like John Kasich, but don’t trust his conservative values.  He looks too much like a RINO to me. He is just too willing to compromise. We cannot afford another Republican establishment candidate.   That leaves Rick Perry, who is 65.  Perry has the right amount of experience, he has the right values, he is mean enough to do the job, and after eight years he will be at the right age to move on into retirement.  I doubt that the voters will see it this way, but that is the way I see it.  Right now, I just hope he stays in long enough for people to at least give him a fair consideration.

TDM

Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz are extremely rare and valuable Republican candidates Republicans seem to wilt and appear defenseless when confronted by a wild-eyed liberal asking about gay marriage or abortion.  It is frustrating because there are very good answers to these questions.  We just need politicians capable of an intelligent response.

One of the reasons people like Donald Trump is that he is not defensive at all. He just attacks.  Sometimes that is good, sometimes it is very bad.  Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz have learned to handle these questions brilliantly with intellectually sound arguments. That is why both are soaring in the polls.

Marco Rubio was challenged about abortion by Chris Cuomo and he responded brilliantly.

http://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2015/08/07/marco-rubio-abortion-faith-cuomo-newday.cnn

Don’t pay attention to the headline, which is a typical distortion by CNN.  Listen to Rubio pushes back against Chris Cuomo pointing out, correctly, that it is the liberal left who is ignoring science.  Scientists acknowledge that life begins at conception.  It was liberals who decided that life didn’t actually begin until some artificial date based on their concept of political correctness.  It was liberals who ignored science to pretend that a fetus isn’t human so that they could justify killing it.

A few weeks ago Ted Cruz was asked repeatedly about gay marriage.  The response he gave was equally brilliant:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/05/20/cruz_throws_back_gay_question_to_reporter_do_you_have_a_personal_animosity_against_christians.html

If we can avoid nominating RINOs so willing to cave under the pressure of political correctness, the world will notice something important.  Conservatives have the winning arguments with regard to issues like gay marriage and abortion.  We just need someone with the skill and the courage to make those arguments.  We are fortunate that at least two of them are running for President of the United States.

TDM