This debate was one of the best to watch.  There was a lot of drama and CNN got great ratings.  As with every other debate so far, the instant polls all show Donald Trump as the big winner.  One would think that it doesn’t matter what he does, he will always be the big winner.

The main stream media almost always picks Rubio as the winner of these debates.  In this case, they thought Rubio did well in his back and forth with Trump.  They are right, but missed something.  Rubio was fun and entertaining and he definitely rattled Trump.  But in the end it still looked like Trump, the grand master, swatting down the young whipper snapper.  The whipper snapper impressed, but the grand master was still the grand master.

John Kasich had some good moments, but he also reminded people that he is the arch typical Republican establishment politician no one wants.  Ben Carson was charming and irrelevant.

There were a couple of moments that may have more impact than anyone realizes.  One is when Rubio was questioned by Telemundo.  Maria Celeste Arraras may have really hurt Rubio.  She pointed out that in his Spanish interview on Telemundo Cruz said exactly what Cruz accused him of saying.  Remember that is when Rubio called Cruz a liar and said he didn’t even speak Spanish?  Then she asked Rubio why he was saying something different now?  Keep in mind that immigration is one of the top issues in this election and Rubio just flunked the test.  On the other hand, when she challenged Cruz, he was brilliant in explaining to Hispanic voters why illegal immigration is hurting them too.

Another moment was when Cruz literally cross examined Trump with regard to what Trump actually said.  Dana Perino, hardly a Cruz supporter nailed it.  She watched that clip, along with the clips of what Donald Trump actually said and her response was:  “the prosecution rests.”

Ultimately, I think the lasting imagine of this debate will be that Rubio did well, but he does not look remotely capable of competing with Trump.  Trump was flustered and it showed.  Cruz took on Trump, but in a very different way that Rubio.  Cruz is an outstanding trial attorney and last night America got to seem that Ted Cruz in action.  Like every other trial attorney, people don’t necessarily like him, but he wins cases.

What matters more than the debate are the all those polls.  The main stream media will spend about 24 hours talking about this debate and then will go back to the polls.  The polls are a huge problem for Rubio.  All the polls show him losing big time in his home state of Florida.  It is hard to imagine Rubio beating Trump anywhere if he can’t even come close in Florida.  Cruz on the other hand appears to be poised to win Texas.  Some polls have Cruz and Trump virtually tied, but most have Cruz ahead by a significant margin.  If people go into the election Tuesday thinking that Rubio is going to lose in Florida and Cruz is going to win in Texas it is likely to dampen the enthusiasm for Rubio big time.  Trump is likely to do well Tuesday.  Cruz is probably going to win Texas and he may win one or more other states.  It seems unlikely that Rubio will win anywhere and he is likely to finish behind Cruz in most states.  He will probably hang around for the March 15^th Florida primary, but it sure looks like the end is near.

John Kasich and Ben Carson will do what they always do, finish way behind in fourth or fifth.

TDM

I always watch how candidates act after an election.  I am particularly interested in the unexpected response.  We got three of them after the Nevada Caucuses.  The first was by Marco Rubio.  He wasn’t in Nevada and he didn’t give a speech at all.  One would think he at least earned bragging rights by coming in second ahead of Ted Cruz.  I mean he gloated about his third place finish in Iowa and was thrilled with his second place finish in South Carolina.  Nevada, not so much! .Rubio wasn’t acting like he won anything.

Then this morning I got one of those Marco Rubio e-mails.  It contained the following line:

P.S. One more thing is clear tonight: this is at most a three-man race and Marco Rubio isn’t going anywhere! If Marco can count on you, will you let him know by making an instant online contribution tonight?

This is not what you expect from someone who thought they did well.

Another was John Kasich, who gave a rambling speech about maybe his destiny wasn’t to be President of the United States. I think Kasich is close to pulling the plug.

Ted Cruz, on the other hand, gave a victory speech.  He looked exhausted, but he at least tried to look enthusiastic.  Then I got the following e-mail from his campaign today:

Here’s the good news: I’m leading all Republicans in Arkansas and Texas, and we are in striking distance of Trump and ahead of the other remaining candidates in five more key March 1st, Super Tuesday states — Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.

As you can see — this is quickly becoming a two person race between me, a consistent conservative…and Donald Trump.

That is not what you expect from someone who came up short.  So either Ted Cruz is a better actor, or his campaign really is more optimistic.  So I did some research and something became obvious.  Cruz expects to win at least two states and maybe more.  Rubio doesn’t expect to win any.  It is going to be hard for Rubio to sell himself as the candidate most likely to win the general election if he has never actually won anywhere.  We will know a lot more by next week at this time.

By the way, no, I didn’t send anybody money.

TDM

Nevada only matters to people who think Nevada matters.  Trump did get 45% of the vote last night, but only a little over 75,000 people bothered to vote.  Both Trump and Rubio won because of Clark County, which means Las Vega.  Trump won by 17,000 vote state wide, half of them came from Clark County.  The entire margin between Rubio and Cruz came from Clark County.  If they had tied there, Cruz rather than Rubio would have come in second.  So instead of saying that Trump won big in Nevada it would be more accurate to say he ran the table in Vegas.

The Republican establishment is rushing to endorse Rubio, which is hurting Cruz but not necessarily helping Rubio enough to take on Trump.  It probably helps Trump more than anything, because Rubio is a far less dangerous opponent for him than Cruz.  Rubio is running on a campaign that he is most electable because he will bring more people into the party.  That is the same theory that resulted in the losses by John McCain and Mitt Romney.  Every poll in Nevada showed that people are angry and they want to vote for an angry man.  The Republican Establishment has already lost this election.  The only question is how long before they are ready, willing and able to admit that.

I don’t think Rubio has a path to the nomination.  I don’t think Rubio can ever beat Trump.  Cruz, on the other hand, still have a path, but some things have to happen.  He has to stop Rubio or Trump easily wins this.  He can win a two man race, but Trump will win a three man race.  The good news for him is that Rubio is very vulnerable.  His performance on O’Reilly was really bad.  Rubio simply cannot handle being pressured on immigration. In addition there is a breaking story where an ICE official is challenging Rubio.  This is a Swift Boat type campaign.  Rubio tried to dismiss this guy off hand and that may backfire.  The allegation is that Rubio was unwilling to give ICE authority to stop illegal immigration. This could really hurt Rubio.  The Town Hall and the debate this week could be interesting.

Cruz also needs to take on the liar allegations and turn them around.  He certainly has the skill and the ammunition to do that.  To put it bluntly, both Donald Trump and Marco Rubio live in glass houses on this subject.

While some have talked about a brokered convention, no one has noticed that the California Primary is still looming out there is the Fog.  Remember that Robert Kennedy was way behind in 1968 until he won the California Primary.  If he had not been assassinated he probably would have won the Democratic nomination.  California is a winner take all state where only Republicans can vote.  Cruz is leading in the polls in California.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Cruz is doing some California Dreaming.

TDM

Yesterday, all the news was about Cruz firing his communications director for posting a video slamming Rubio’s faith.  Everyone thought it was a very bad day for Cruz.  His Campaign was described as “reeling.”  It was a bad day for Cruz, but not nearly as bad as the evening was for Rubio.

Both Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz went on O’Reilly last night.  It was a remarkable contrast.  O’Reilly really challenged Ted Cruz and interrupted him several times, but Cruz stood his ground and backed O’Reilly down.  When O’Reilly opined that the courts would never allow Cruz to deport illegal aliens, Cruz reminded O’Reilly that he is a constitutional lawyer and the law not only allows that, it requires that.

On the other hand, the interview with Marco Rubio may have hurt Rubio.  It may turn out that the biggest threat to Marco Rubio wasn’t Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, it was Marco Rubio himself. Marco Rubio would not give O’Reilly a straight answer with regard to giving citizenship to illegal aliens.  As you can see, Rubio literally repeated the same phrase eight times during one interview.  Ouch:

http://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/02/23/marcobot-had-another-malfunction-on-foxs-bill-oreilly-show-video/

There may be more problems on the horizon for Rubio.  He bad mouthed an ICE officer who criticized him and the response is pretty strong:

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/02/23/exclusive-ice-officer-rubio-lied-american-public-fox-news-challenges-meet/

“You recently lied to the American public on FOX news regarding my current status and career as both an ICE Agent and Officer,” Crane writes in his email to Rubio. “I challenge you to make yourself available, as a United States Senator and Presidential Candidate, so that I may present my badge and credentials to you as proof that your comments on FOX news are false.”

He’s not an ICE official. He’s the head of a union,” Rubio told Neil Cavuto. Rubio said he would not address Crane’s accusations because they were published by Breitbart News — suggesting that Crane was a “conspiracy” theorist. “I literally don’t talk about the things they [i.e. Breitbart News] report because they’re basically conspiracy theories and often times manipulated. And that individual is not an ICE official, he’s the head of a union,” Rubio said.

Immigration has always been a huge problem for Rubio. His activities on the gang of eight are well documented. It is clear that Republicans have moved to a much stronger position on illegal immigration.  Donald Trump realized that before anyone else and it is a major factor in his support.  So, I guess the question is who was hurt more.  Cruz, for firing his communication’s director?  Or Rubio for the double exposure on immigration?

TDM.

According to the pundits, this is now a two man race between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio.  According to Marco Rubio this is a three man race between Trump, Rubio and Cruz.  According to John Kasich this is a four man race.  The only thing certain is that Kasich is wrong.

The actual results in South Carolina were as follows:

1. Donald Trump: 238,067 (32 percent)
2. Marco Rubio: 164,691 (22.5 percent)
3. Ted Cruz: 163,732 (22.3 percent)

No one else matters.  Jeb Bush has already bowed out.  Kasich and Carson are delusional.  The main stream media thinks that Rubio is surging and is likely to be the establishment challenger to Trump.  They are right about that, but they are missing something.  In South Carolina, 61.5% of participants voted against establishment candidates.  That is very similar to the pattern in Iowa and New Hampshire. Rubio won’t pick up all of the votes from Bush.  Even if Rubio got every Bush vote, he would still be behind Trump.  His only chance at the nomination is for Cruz to drop out and I don’t see that happening.

I don’t think that Rubio can beat Trump, but he can stop this from becoming a two man race between Trump and Cruz. The Republican establishment is terrified of A Trump – Cruz campaign.  They would rather have no winner than to have either of these guys win.  Expect the Republican establishment to go all in on Rubio.  That will bring him lots of money and endorsements.

This reminds me of a time when I was on the due diligence team for an acquisition.  It was a nice little company and was very well run.  The plan was to put it under our management and bring it up to a new level.  But I realized that this company actually outperformed any of our branches.  In a moment of weakness I blurted out the truth:  “This Company is well positioned and profitable but with assistance from our management I expect that to change.”  Fortunately the only one who heard this was my boss and he laughed because he felt the same way.

That is the way I feel about the Republican establishment providing money, endorsement and advice for Marco Rubio.  If they give him the same level of expertise and support given to Jeb Bush we shouldn’t be surprised if they get similar results. He will certainly be doomed to lose in a general election.

But something else is happening.  South Carolina did something else, it woke up conservatives.  While the Republican establishment still dreams of stopping Trump and putting in their guy, conservatives realize that if they don’t stop Trump now, it may be too late. They realize that Marco Rubio is an establishment Republican.  They also realize that they have been waiting for a candidate like Ted Cruz for a long time.  They are all in Ted Cruz.  Never underestimate the persuasive power of people like Glenn Beck, Mark Levin and Rush Limbaugh. Don’t underestimate Franklin Graham.  He is holding meetings in every State Capital and is drawing enormous crowds.  He is endorsing no candidate, but his message fits Ted Cruz to a “T.”  Conservatives believe Ted Cruz when he says this may be our last chance.  They could be right.  If we allow Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton to name the next Supreme Court justice, this country will become unrecognizable.  Rubio will do better than them, but he will be pressured by Republicans to choose a moderate.  A moderate is someone who far too often caves in to pressure from Democrats.  Replacing Scalia with a moderate will result in a lot of really bad 5-4 Supreme Court decisions.

Perhaps the real question is whether or not we are to allow the main stream media, including Fox News and the Republican establishment, to tell us little folks how things work?  That is exactly what is happening now.  They have already written off Ted Cruz and are telling us the choice is between Donald Trump and Marco Rubio. All have one mission, “anybody but Ted Cruz.”  To the ruling elite Ted Cruz is the real threat.  They think that Ted Cruz appeals to the far right fringe of white racist uneducated evangelical bigots.  The believe that a man who a devote Christian running on a platform of religious freedom, adherence to the constitution and a free market is too out of touch with reality to get elected.  Are they right?  We will soon know.

But this time the main stream media, Fox News and the Republican establishment no longer has a total monopoly on how people get information.  Now most of us rely far more on the internet than the talking heads.  That may save Ted Cruz.  It may even save the country.

TDM

It is interesting to watch the ongoing war between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz.  If you listen to the main stream media, both men are equally guilty of launching wild accusations at each other.  However, that is not true at all.  What we really have here is a reality TV star who blundered his way into a legal pissing contest with one of the best attorneys in the U.S.  If your life depended on it and you needed one attorney to argue your case in front of a hostile jury, Ted Cruz would be that man.  What the media has either missed or ignored is that Cruz has documented facts backing him up.  Trump goes off script and bluffs all the time.  Cruz doesn’t bluff at all.  He is far more disciplined than Trump.  He has called Trump’s bluff and challenged him to go ahead and file a lawsuit.  That puts Trump in a pickle.  If he does not file a lawsuit, it will be obvious that Cruz backed Trump down.  But if Trump does file a lawsuit, Cruz will absolutely crucify him in a court of law.  As soon as Trump files a lawsuit, Cruz can and will subpoena him to testify in deposition.  If Trump does not respond, that will really hurt him.  On the other hand, he cannot afford to testify under oath. No competent attorney would let a client like Donald Trump testify in a deposition conducted by someone like Ted Cruz.

Meanwhile, the WSJ and the NBC News Poll just came out and the results are earth shattering.  It shows Ted Cruz ahead of Trump nationwide.  Even if that poll is wildly inaccurate, it matters because the news media is reporting on it and it creates an image of Cruz surging past Trump.  If people start believing Cruz is winning, he is winning.

In addition, if you are wondering who is winning the show down between Trump and Cruz, consider the following:

Dana Perino, who is closely connected with the Bush family, was on the Five when that poll was released.  Dana almost certainly hates Cruz because she is close to “W” who doesn’t like Cruz.  Her response was:  “Donald Trump just announced he is filing a lawsuit against NBC.”  Ouch!

TDM

Some of you are probably wondering what in the heck is going on with the polls in South Carolina.  The short answer is that a lot of polls are run by liberal universities so they are corrupted by bias and political correctness.  The following article from “Think Process” is an attempt to demonize Republicans.  Instead it documents the huge problems with some public opinion polls:

http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/02/16/3749791/this-poll-of-south-carolina-republicans-is-terrifying/

The polling company is Public Policy Polling.  Look at the questions they are asking Republicans.  This is right out of the Democratic spin manual which assumes that all Republicans are angry white evangelical right wing homophobic racists.

They asked if the person would support banning homosexuals from the country, shutting down U.S. Mosques, creating a national database of Muslims, banning Islam, flying the Confederate flag over the State Capital and by the way, did they wish that the South had won the Civil War.

“The conclusion is that Trump’s support in South Carolina is built on a base of voters among who religious and racial intolerance pervades.”

There is zero chance that I would tolerate an opinion poll from obnoxious liberals asking these kinds of questions.  If I did answer, I would probably be so offended that I would deliberately give wrong answers just to rattle their cage.  This is insane, but this is also the poll being widely reported in the news today.  No wonder the polls are so wrong.  The internal polls are far more accurate.

Here is what an internal poll by the Jeb Bush campaign is seeing:

Trump 26, Cruz 24, Bush 12, Rubio 11.  If that is accurate it explains a lot.  It would certainly explain why Trump is going postal on Cruz.   At this point, no one knows.  But we can sure see what people are doing and right now Trump looks pretty desperate.   Rush Limbaugh believes that Cruz has given up on attracting the Republican base and is now openly trying to appeal to independents and Reagan Democrats.  Limbaugh does not believe that Trump has significant support among the Republican base.

We are clearly in uncharted waters.  Probably the most reliable information right now is that the polls are completely unreliable.   We can also count on the Republican establishment trying desperately to make people believe that Jeb Bush, or Marco Rubio or John Kasich is surging in a desperate attempt to prevent Trump or Cruz pulling away from the field.  If Trump wins, Cruz probably lives to fight another day and in future primaries Trump cannot rely on Democrats and Independents.  If Cruz wins, Trump is in deep trouble.  It is theoretically possible for Rubio to find a narrow opening on the back stretch but right now this looks like a two man race.  Donald Trump looks like a man who knows he is going down in flames and is determined to do maximum damage on the way out.

TDM

In case you thought Donald Trump made a huge mistake in attacking George W. Bush, it turns out to be even worse than you thought.  BuzzFeed did a little research to see if Donald Trump really was opposed to the Iraq war:

http://www.buzzfeed.com/andrewkaczynski/trump-on-there-being-zero-proof-he-opposed-iraq-before-the-w#.yyEO9wE1nB

Here is what Donald Trump wrote in his book, The America We Deserve in 2000:

“Consider Iraq.  After each pounding from U.S. warplanes, Iraq has dusted itself off and gone right back to work developing a nuclear arsenal.  Six years of tough talk and U.S. fireworks in Baghdad have done little to slow Iraq’s crash program to become a nuclear power.  They’ve got missiles capable of flying nine hundred kilometers – more than enough to reach Tel Aviv.  They’ve got enriched uranium.  All they need is the material for nuclear fission to complete the job, and according to the Rumsfeld report, we don’t even know for sure if they’ve laid their hands on that.  That’s what our last aerial assault on Iraq in 1999 was about.  Saddam Husein wouldn’t let UN weapons inspectors examine certain sites where the material might be stored.  The result when our bombing was over?  We still don’t know what Iraq is up to and whether it has the material to build nuclear weapons.  I’m no warmonger.  But the fact is, if we decide a strike against Iaq is necessary, it is madness not to carry the mission to its conclusion.  When we don’t, we have the worst of all worlds.  Iraq remains a threat, and now has more incentive than ever to attack us.”

Seriously?  He wrote this in his book, in 2000, before Bush became President!  This is as bad as it gets. There are a lot of words to describe this including liar, hypocrite, jerk.and many more. The list goes on, but right at the top should be:  “STUPID.”

TDM

I was listening to the debate Saturday night while driving to Stockton to see a hockey game. We saw several fights during the game, but none compared with the brawl in South Carolina. Donald Trump was the clear winner on points, but he may have made a huge blunder.  His vicious assault on George W. Bush was shocking.  Here is how that played in the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/daily-202/2016/02/14/daily-202-trump-lost-last-night-s-debate-in-south-carolina-how-much-does-it-matter/56bff2f8981b92a22d144e6c/

The billionaire was flustered and cranky. Not only was he thrown off his game by sustained boos from the crowd and a pile-on by his rivals, but he often sounded more like a Democrat than a Republican.

Hohmann hit the nail on the head.  Trump sounded more like a Democrat than a Republican. That is not a good then when one is running for the Republican nomination. Trump jumped the shark when he accused George W. Bush of lying about the WMD and then doubled down when he blamed Bush for 9-11. Even Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders know better than that.  Only a handful of far left wing nuts seriously believe the “Bush lied, people died crap.”

I watched the taped debate when I got home.  It was the best of Trump; it was the worst of Trump.  He looked like a lot of things, but Presidential isn’t on the list.  If anything he looked like the obnoxious bully we all remember from the eighth grade.

If Trump had acted like an adult, he probably would have won South Carolina and he might have run the table.  But he didn’t act like an adult and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ted Cruz win South Carolina. This is hard to predict because Trump has done a lot of things that should have been fatal to his campaign. His supporters not only ignore this stuff, they embrace it.  But, when this gets down to two or three candidates, which is about to happen, the anti-Trump movement will be larger than the pro-Trump movement.  Either Trump convinces some people in the anti-Trump movement to support him or he loses.  After Saturday night, that seems unlikely.

One final thought.  The only time Trump loses his cool is when he thinks he is losing. 

TDM.

The Republican establishment has already tried to take down Donald Trump unsuccessfully.   They failed miserably.  The problem was that the things the Republican establishment considers to be outrageous are the things that people have wanted to hear for a long time.  For example they slammed Trump of being too mean about letting Muslims into the country.  That sounds terrible to the tone deaf Republican establishment but is music to the ears to people sick and tired of political correctness substituting for common sense.  These kind of silly attacks just made Trump look better.

Cruz, on the other hand never played that game.  He avoided making personal attacks on Trump.  While everyone else was attacking, Cruz was watching.  Cruz has discovered that Trump’s Achilles heel is his ego.   While Donald is good at throwing a punch, he is terrible at taking one.  He nearly came unglued when Cruz beat him in Iowa.  Trump cannot stand to lose.  He cannot stand to be laughed at.  Cruz silenced Trump when he laughed at Trump and said that he actually enjoyed watching Donald get upset.  Trump may be stepping into the lion’s den again.  He is accusing Cruz of lying and it is Trump who has his facts wrong.  The following article in the Blaze is excellent at explaining this.

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2016/02/11/ann-coulter-accuses-ted-cruz-of-lying-about-donald-trumps-position-on-health-care-but-did-he/

Ted Cruz is a highly experienced trial attorney capable of arguing cases before the U.S. Supreme Court.  He is extremely precise at what he says and that makes him a dangerous opponent.

Trump has won most of the prior exchanges because he is brilliant at trading insults.  He is gifted at getting under people’s skin.  He is particulary good at intimidating Jeb Bush.  But Cruz doesn’t have thin skin and this tactic doesn’t work with him.

Here is how that is likely to go down.  One of the moderators is going to ask Trump if he really thinks Cruz is a liar.  At that point, Trump has to put up or shut up.  That is a major problem for Trump, because he does not have the facts to back up his accusation.  If Trump is smart, he will try to dodge the question.  But I don’t think ABC will pull a Chris Wallace and stop Cruz from responding.   One thing is certain, Cruz will be more than ready if given the opportunity.

The main stream media tends to down play Ted Cruz’s debate performances.  One reason is that he is rarely attacked by the other candidates.  They have learned to avoid that.  Cruz throws a mean counter punch.  So they tend to attack each other and they suck up a lot of the air time.  Cruz is not all that good at the 25 second rehearsed speech so it has been difficult for him to showcase his talent.   This debate may be very different.

TDM